According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on December 30 was 109.93, unchanged from yesterday, 22.93% lower than the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and 30.37% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly in December, with a main report of 2027.50 yuan/ton on the first day and a small increase on the 30th. At present, the country is greatly affected by the short-term policy of public health events. The water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan Province have sufficient inventory. Affected by the partial commencement of downstream enterprises, the reduction of orders compared with the early stage and the recent substantial weakening of logistics and transportation capacity, the enterprises do not ship much; The market of raw hydrochloric acid has remained stable at about 174 yuan/ton so far this month, with unfavorable support. To sum up, it is expected that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride before and after the year will be mainly stable and slightly weak.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market continued to be stable in December. On the first day, the market reported 178 yuan/ton, which has remained stable since the seventh day, when it reported 174 yuan/ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. However, the downstream ammonium chloride market is at a high stage, and the downstream support is relatively strong. According to the analysis, the market price of hydrochloric acid in late December may fluctuate in a narrow range.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business agency, domestic LNG rose first and then fell in December. The cost of the liquid plant increased due to the rise of feed gas price. The domestic weather is cool, and the demand for natural gas is getting warmer. In the first half of December, the domestic LNG price rose sharply from 4900 yuan/ton on the first day, and exceeded 8000 yuan/ton on the 14th; In the second half of the month, the market closed at 6060 yuan/ton on the 30th. The situation of oversupply in the market is obvious. There is a lack of good support in the market, and the downstream demand support is weak. The market is falling back. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

Future forecast: after the recent public health event policy was liberalized, the population’s immunity to infection increased in the short term, the manufacturers started work locally, the inventory was sufficient, the demand continued to weaken, and the orders continued to shrink. In addition, near the New Year’s Day and the New Year holiday next month, some manufacturers and downstream have been off. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and weak.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of December 29, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was RMB 5713.33/ton, down 386.67/ton, or 6.34%, compared with December 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was RMB 6100/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that since December (12.1-12.29), the domestic diethylene glycol price has declined from high to low, and the market is weak. This month, the market showed strong supply and weak demand. Under the weak demand expectation, the overall market mentality was not good. In addition, the early price rose to a high level in the year, and the market center of gravity fell from a high level. The international crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost support was fair. In Jiangsu, the arrival of goods at the port is concentrated, and the inventory has increased (as of December 19, the inventory of East China Port was 25800 tons, up 3800 tons, or 17.27%, compared with 22000 tons on November 28). The domestic new units have increased production, and the Maoming First Unit has restarted. The production supply has increased slightly, and the supply shortage has eased. Downstream UPR started at a low level, and the polyester industry started to decline, leading to weak demand expectations, general market transactions, increasing wait-and-see sentiment, and the delivery of goods in the reservoir area fell back. Under the influence of multiple factors, the market sentiment has changed from strong to weak, the focus of market negotiation has kept falling, the price has declined broadly, the mentality of the industry has become cautious, the pace of market trading and investment has slowed down, and most of the goods are shipped along with the line. As of December 29, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5400-5500 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of on-site trading and investment was general, and the actual orders were mainly negotiated according to the quantity. On December 28, the shipment volume of the Yangtze River Reservoir Area was 722 tons.

In the future, in terms of supply, foreign equipment maintenance and subsequent import to the port are limited, so there is a tight supply expectation; In terms of demand, due to the widespread spread of the epidemic, downstream manufacturers started to decline and purchased on demand, which is also reflected in the recent number of shipments from the terminal, and the overall demand is expected to be weak. Diethylene glycol analysts from the business community believe that the market lacks clear information guidance in the near future, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, so it may be difficult for prices to fluctuate significantly. The short-term domestic diethylene glycol market maintains a range shock trend. Continue to pay attention to inventory and demand follow-up.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.16-12.23) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 191210 yuan/ton last weekend and 196910 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.98%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the figure above that tin prices will rise continuously after November 2022 due to macro factors.

Futures market situation this week

Variety/ Closing price/ Compared with the same period last week/ Inventory (ton)/ Change in inventory compared with last week (t)

Shanghai Wuxi/ 196550 yuan/ton/+ 5440 yuan/ton/ 4901./-995

London tin/ US $23940/ton/+ 340 USD/ton/ 2855./-35

In terms of futures market, Shanghai and Wuxi saw strong shocks this week, with a weekly rise of about 2.9%. On Wednesday, the news that the central bank strengthened the implementation of prudent monetary policy boosted the market, and Shanghai Tin rose.

In terms of the spot market, the overall operation was at a high level this week. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is more cautious, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market trading is average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole has not changed much, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the market supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. Although the holiday is approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

On December 25, the non-ferrous index stood at 1200, unchanged from yesterday, 21.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1538 (2021-10-18), and 97.69% higher than the lowest point of 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 51st week of 2022 (12.19-12.23), with nickel (3.25%), dysprosium (2.91%) and silver (2.74%) in the top three. There were five kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products with a decline were zinc (-2.65%), metal silicon (-1.48%) and electrolytic manganese (-0.57%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.7%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic BDO market has warmed up due to the favorable support of multi unit maintenance and factory bidding premium. From December 9 to 16, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers at the beginning of the week was 9436 yuan/ton, and at the weekend was 9590 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose 1.63%, fell 14.37% month on month, and fell 69.06% year on year. The manufacturer has a strong intention to support the market, but the downstream industry is mainly wait-and-see, maintaining contract follow-up, just needing small spot purchase, and the focus of delivery and investment is weak.

On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price fell by a narrow margin, with the price at the beginning of the week at 3766 yuan/ton, and at the weekend at 3701 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.73%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports rose first and then fell in a narrow range, 2680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2655 yuan/ton at the weekend, and the price fell by 0.90% during the cycle. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.

On the supply side, the overall commencement of the industry dropped to less than 70%, the spot supply in the market was reduced, and the production enterprises were reluctant to sell, which boosted the factory’s auction price to 9550 yuan/ton. BDO supply level is obviously favorable.

On the demand side, the downstream opening rate of the terminal declined, and the market of several downstream products was weak and volatile, maintaining the small orders just needed to follow up and negotiate prices. The operating rate of downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT and TPU, remained at about 60%, and the overall incentive to buy gas was limited. The overall change in BDO demand was slightly positive.

The future forecast shows that the overall supply of the domestic BDO market has not changed much in the short term, but the industry is still in a loss state, and the manufacturers’ price keeping mentality continues. The downstream industry maintains contract procurement, and resists high prices when the cost transmission is not smooth. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by sideways consolidation.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. On the 12th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8033.33 yuan/ton, and on the 16th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8116.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04%. The price fell 3.23% year on year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has risen. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been dominated by shocks, and this week the price has risen slightly. The market of pure benzene was consolidated, and the cost support was average. Although the downstream is just in demand, the purchase intention is good, which has certain support for the market. The port inventory may have a small drop expectation, which is good for the styrene market. The short-term styrene market is expected to be dominated by gains.

In terms of raw materials, the recent narrow amplitude shock of pure benzene has continued to weaken the fundamentals of pure benzene. The downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. The cost is weak, and the fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor. It is expected that the pure benzene will continue its weak operation in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell at different levels. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 9933 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 9933 yuan/ton, which was stable. The cost support is on the high side, the tight situation of goods in some areas continues, the supply of permeable benzene goods is slightly loose, and the traders tend to be cautious in trading. The mainstream price of GPPS in East China market is 8900-10800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS is 10050-11200 yuan/ton.

Recently, EPS price fluctuated slightly. Overall transaction weakened month on month. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10460 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market price is weak. The manufacturer maintains a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand is sluggish.

Recently, the domestic ABS market is in a weak stalemate, and the price rises and falls are mutual. The load of ABS industry has risen at a high level. At present, the plant is almost in full operation, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. Due to the supply pressure and the drag of raw material side, the factory price is difficult to increase.

International oil prices fell, and cost support was poor. In December, news of styrene unit restart increased, and domestic supply was expected to increase. The short-term styrene market is expected to fall mainly.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the early price of 4280 yuan/ton, up 8.08% year on year.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly, in addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China rose this week. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2450 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from 2433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2650 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the goods in the market are normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the market has risen, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen to support the ammonium nitrate market.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia fell this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 4706.67 yuan/ton, 3.75% lower than the price of 4890 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the amount of ammonia released from the main production areas only increased, and the shipments from Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places were large. The main reason is that a large number of maintenance devices are returned to production. Since the beginning of this month, Fujian Wanhua and Shenyuan devices have resumed production. This week, Shanxi Yaxin and Runjin have also started to operate. In addition, due to the high price of liquid ammonia in the early stage, most joint production enterprises switched from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in a sharp increase in ammonia volume. Under the effect of successive price reductions, manufacturers made greater efforts to ship. The price decline of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, the market price of liquid ammonia has declined, the price of nitric acid has risen, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Ammonium nitrate analysts from the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

The price of o-xylene fell this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of December 9, the price of ortho xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, down 3.53% from 8500 yuan/ton on December 4. Both upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the demand was insufficient. The domestic market of o-xylene fell.

Raw material mixed xylene market fell in shock this week

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price continued to fall this week. As of December 9, the price of mixed xylene was 7050 yuan/ton, down 3.56% from 7310 yuan/ton on December 4. Crude oil prices fell sharply, mixed xylene prices fell in shock, ortho xylene costs fell, and ortho xylene fell under increasing pressure.

The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream fell due to volatility this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply this week. As of December 9, the quotation of phthalic anhydride from Neighborhood France was 8150 yuan/ton, a continuous drop of 4.68% from the price of 8550 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped sharply this week, the downstream demand was weak, and ortho xylene fell under great pressure.

Future outlook

The analysts of the ortho xylene data of the business community believed that, on the cost side, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, and the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene increased; On the demand side, phthalic anhydride continued to decline, while the demand for ortho benzene was weak. To sum up, the cost of ortho xylene fell and the demand was sluggish, and the price of ortho xylene fell in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 9, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16800 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16950 yuan/ton on December 4, 2022, the price decreased by 150 yuan/ton, or 0.88%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.04-12.09), the overall domestic silicone DMC market was weak and running downward. Although the end of the year is approaching, the demand for organic silicon downstream is still generally boosted. This week, the factory as a whole has once again delivered goods at a small margin. During the week, the market price of organic silicon DMC dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, there is still a game between the supply and demand side of organic silicon DMC, and the overall operating rate on the site is also at a low level. As of December 9, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was around 16600-17200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At the end of the year, the organosilicon DMC factory was under pressure and gave way to profits, which can be said to be “full of sincerity”. The organosilicon DMC data engineer of the business community believed that it was expected that in the early Spring Festival, the downstream stock purchase would also be started one after another, the trading atmosphere of the organosilicon DMC would be somewhat warmer, and the market price was expected to stabilize and rise slightly. More attention should be paid to the changes of the information on the supply and demand side after the specific trend.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8417 yuan/ton on December 5, and the average price was 8370 yuan/ton on December 9, with a decline of 0.56% during the period, 0.51% lower than that on December 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9283 yuan/ton on December 5 and 9283 yuan/ton on December 9. The quotation was stable during this period, down 0.54% compared with December 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8400 yuan/ton on December 5, and 8400 yuan/ton on December 9. The quotation was stable during this period, which was the same as that on December 1.

Polyethylene prices fell weakly this week, among which LLDPE fell significantly; LDPE prices remained stable after price reduction on Monday; HDPE quotation was stable. The weak crude oil price depressed the domestic polyethylene market. Some enterprises have shut down their equipment for maintenance, and the supply of polyethylene products has decreased. The domestic epidemic prevention and control policy has been relaxed, and the logistics and transportation have been eased, but the downstream demand is not good, and the orders of enterprises have decreased.

Supply side: The maintenance devices will resume work next week, and the supply side is expected to recover. On the demand side, the market mainly purchases on demand. Affected by domestic public events, the market was pessimistic in the future. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week. The price was 6640 yuan/ton on December 2 and 6210 yuan/ton on Friday (December 9), down 6.48% from last week; 7.25% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Although the demand for gasoline has improved slightly due to the relaxation of the epidemic policy, the crude oil continued to fall during the week, the cost side depressed the market mentality, and toluene continued to decline this week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (December 8), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 714 US dollars/ton, down 63 US dollars/ton year on year, or 8.11%.

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere this week. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, and the U.S. oil product inventory increased significantly. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained. As of December 9, Brent price fell by 9.47 dollars/barrel, or 11.07%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 8.96 US dollars/barrel, or 11.2%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week. On December 2, the price was 17233 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 17067 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from last week and up 16.7% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, the domestic PX price continued to decline this week. On December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 7450 yuan/ton, down 10.24% from last week and up 11.19% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fell continuously this week. On December 2, the price was 7836 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 7653 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from last week and 2.97% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the global economic recession and weakening energy demand, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The fundamentals of the toluene market are poor, lacking substantial positive support, and the short-term cost is difficult to change. It is expected that toluene will continue to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.