1、 Price trend
According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market closed down slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 0.58% month on month.
2、 Analysis and comment
Toluene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. The port inventory is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market is oversupply, the downstream blended oil and solvent demand is general, the price is slightly weak, and there is a slight fluctuation in recent years. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.
Upstream, crude oil, oil prices rose slightly this week, OPEC helped oil prices, but the epidemic situation and economic downturn risk limit oil prices. As of Friday, Brent rose $0.575/barrel to close at $41.65/barrel, up 1.4% month on month. Russia and Saudi Arabia held their second and unusual teleconference this week to discuss the OPEC + agreement, with officials of the organization warning on Friday that the oil market could be weak in 2021. In the short term, close attention will be paid to the upcoming Joint Ministerial oversight committee meeting on October 19.
In terms of TDI in the downstream, the trend fell slightly this week. According to market news, the listing price of Shanghai BASF TDI in October was 23000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1000 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. The settlement in September was 17200 yuan / ton, and the month on month increase was 4100 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 537 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 555 US dollars / ton CFR China. PX market is expected to maintain a stable trend in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the progress of a new round of stimulus measures in the United States, as well as the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.