1、 Price data
According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in April was 1092.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1055.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 37.50 yuan / ton in the month, up and down by – 3.43% in the month.
On April 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.26% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.68% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: after the decline of refining petroleum coke in April, it stabilized, mainly due to the high operating rate of refining enterprises, the increase of market supply, abundant inventory, the easing of downstream demand in the late ten days, and stable trading.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is $20.48/barrel at the beginning of the month, and $15.35/barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 25.05%; Brent crude oil is $26.35/barrel at the beginning of the month, and $24.23/barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 8.05%. At the beginning of the month, the output reduction of OPEC + meeting was lower than the market expectation, and the crude oil demand in April was expected to decline by more than 20 million barrels / day, or even 30 million barrels; the delivery oil price of WTI futures fell to a negative value in the last ten days, and the future market mentality was pessimistic. Downstream: at the end of the month, the capital pressure of downstream enterprises is large, and the pre baked anode pricing has not been determined in May; the demand of calcined coking enterprises has been alleviated; the inventory pressure of carbon enterprises is large, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general, mainly on demand procurement. According to the data of business agency, as of April 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12793.33 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the market of petroleum coke in April will stabilize after falling, and the downstream demand will improve. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in May will be stable as a whole, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, with the price range of 900-1100 yuan / ton or so.