1、 Price trend
This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4128 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the weekend was 3867 yuan / ton, down 6.32%, 38.18% month on month, down 52.12% year on year. At present, the market price of butadiene has repeatedly broken new lows.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: this week, butadiene maintained a weak and low pattern. The supply price of manufacturers has been lowered many times. However, the market supply and demand pattern is still stagnant, and the pressure on the supply side is still there. In addition, the low price in the external market dragged down, and the downstream purchase maintained the rigid demand Main, inquiry and purchase are still cautious; after returning from the Qingming holiday on Tuesday, the base price of domestic manufacturers in Northeast China was lowered and the transaction was not smooth. Meanwhile, the prices of many factories including Sinopec, the main supplier, were also lowered. The merchants’ offers fell with each other, but the downstream purchase intention was not good. The market did not improve significantly, the downstream inquiry and purchase remained cautious, and the price of the outside market fell again The domestic market is under pressure, with middlemen’s offers falling one after another, local businesses lack of active offer intention, and the overall trading performance is still weak.
In terms of enterprises, the 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu srbang was restarted on March 30. At present, the unit is in normal operation, and the quotation is reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton; the 70000 T / a unit of Inner Mongolia Jiutai is restarted, and the goods are sold normally, and the quotation is reduced by 500 yuan / ton to 3400 yuan / ton. Dalian Hengli 140000t / a device operates stably, the goods are sold normally, and the quotation drops by 300 yuan / ton to 3510 yuan / ton.
In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the supply price of domestic mainstream styrene butadiene is stable, and the market price is higher. The main offer price of Shandong Qilu 1502 is 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and that of oil rubber 1712 is 7000 yuan / ton. Shanghai Rubber rose, the news to cheer up the mentality of the industry; the raw material butadiene supply price fell, the styrene butadiene production enterprise theoretical profit enlarged again. Boosted by the rise of crude oil and Shanghai Jiaotong, the upside down price in the market disappears. The industry generally adds 100-300 yuan / ton to make an offer to watch the trading market; the inquiry atmosphere is fair, most of which is replenishment by middlemen, while the terminal remains on the watch, and the principle of “use as you go” remains unchanged.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has not been adjusted, and the range of market offer has been boosted. With the improvement of inquiry, the price of the offer has been gradually increased, while the price of the low offer has been reduced. Only a few private enterprises have delivered goods at a price lower than that of the petrochemical factory. The overall offer atmosphere has improved. The middlemen are active in the market, and the downstream factories just need to replenish their positions.
3、 Future forecast
The supply of overseas ocean going cargo is abundant, and the supply and demand of domestic butadiene spot continue to be weak. With the prices of Sinopec and other suppliers continue to decline, the overall market continues to decline. The short-term peripheral information is difficult to transmit to the butadiene spot market, and there is no obvious positive support from market supply and demand. The butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak, and it is suggested to pay attention to the guidance of the internal and external trading news.