Market trend

After the Qingming holiday, affected by the sharp upward trend of crude oil before the festival, pure benzene rebounded and stopped falling. Manufacturers continuously raised their listing and made offers, with a significant cumulative increase of up to 9%. Supported by the cost side brought by the upward trend of raw materials, phenol Market inquiry increased, and the willingness of intermediate dealers who have been waiting for the market for a long time to quickly copy the bottom stock increased, and the market offer went up. According to the monitoring of the business news agency, the daily price of petrochemical manufacturers in East China was 4925 yuan / ton on April 6, 5250 yuan / ton on April 10, up 4.57%, down 33.97% year on year; the daily price of phenol Market in East China was 6900 yuan / ton on April 6, up 10.71% on average; by the end of the week, the price of surrounding areas in Shandong was 5400 yuan / ton, Yanshan The surrounding offer is 5400 yuan / ton, the East China market 5500 yuan / ton, and the South China market 5600 yuan / ton. At present, the market offer is higher than the petrochemical listing. By the end of the week, the market is gradually stable, and the willingness of shippers to ship is enhanced.

Analysis and comment

On the cost side, the reduction of crude oil production before the Qingming Festival was favorable for release in advance, with a single day increase of 22%. The rapid stop of decline and rebound of pure benzene was affected by the boost of crude oil. Due to the unknown news of “production reduction” of crude oil in the early stage, many market participants are waiting for the market. Although the pure benzene dropped to 2300 yuan / ton last week, the insiders believe that the uncertainty of crude oil makes it impossible to determine whether the pure benzene bottomed out. Most of them have been waiting for the market, and then the crude oil benefits will be released ahead of time before the pre Festival negotiation. After the crude oil soars, the pure benzene market enters the market and purchases obviously, and the market speculation cooperates with manufacturers Listing went up, the rapid increase of inquiry in the field, the total increase of pure benzene market nearly 1000 yuan. Supported by the cost side, phenol Market performance is similar, first market high followed by Sinopec’s continuous upward listing. According to the settlement of the business agency, some dealers who have not been engaged in chemical trade for many years have also hoarded goods, with obvious phenomenon of bottom copying and higher market participation. Before the festival, the market once fell to 4500 yuan / ton. At present, the market offers 5500 yuan / ton. However, the negotiation on September 9 was not as expected, the crude oil plunged sharply, and phenol was stable over the weekend.

In terms of pure benzene, FOB South Korea rose 6 US dollars / ton to 318 US dollars / ton, CFR China rose 25 US dollars / ton to 376 US dollars / ton, FOB Southeast Asia rose 6 US dollars / ton to 281 US dollars / ton, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ara both stabilized at 275.5 US dollars / ton, and FOB USG rose 3 US cents / gallon to 108 US cents / gallon.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market is abundant. CNOOC shell’s 350000t / a phenol and ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on April 4. It is expected that the maintenance will last for about 30 days. The 400000t / a phenol and ketone plant in the third well of Sinopec will be put into operation with a load of 90%; the 480000t / a phenol and ketone plant in Zhejiang Taihua will be put into operation with a load of 75%. The inventory of phenol Hengyang is 10000 tons.

Demand is relatively stable. On the aspect of BPA, it is mainly large SINOPEC enterprises. Demand is relatively stable. On the aspect of enterprise start-up, it is generally stable. After this round of bottom exploration, some factories in the downstream, such as phenolic resin, have certain inventory, which is stable in the short term. On the other hand, the barrel inventory of intermediate traders is higher than that in the early stage. It is expected that the demand in the later stage will be relatively stable, and the terminal demand will slightly increase.

Industry: the phenol ketone industry chain as a whole has been significantly boosted by the rise of crude oil, and the products in the industry chain as a whole have been on the rise. At present, crude oil – pure benzene – phenol, after a round of bottom exploration, has risen back, terminal and intermediate traders have certain inventory, and short-term demand may decline to a certain extent.

Forecast for future market

To sum up, after a round of “roller coaster” market in April, it is hard to say that the crude oil is good for stimulation in the short term. The weekend crude oil plunges sharply, which is bad for the market. Phenol analysts of the business news agency believe that phenol will continue to rise with limited support. Short term market negotiations will be between 5400-5500 yuan / ton. Next week, the overall market weakness will maintain stability or there will be downside risks.