Commodity index: on February 13, 2020, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019
Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on February 14, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.1% since 2020.
Industrial chain:
Upstream: from January to February 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market will be lowered. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the last ten days, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; since February, the mainstream price has been about 10600-107000000 yuan / ton. It is reported that at present, the effective capacity of acrylonitrile in China is 2.249 million tons / year, and the production start-up during the Spring Festival is stable, with an average start-up rate of 96%; however, from the beginning of February, the 130000 tons / year acrylonitrile unit of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down due to the by-product transportation problem, and the 130000 tons / year unit of Shandong kelur Chemical Co., Ltd. took a negative reduction due to the raw material liquid ammonia transportation problem, and the start-up rate of the acrylonitrile industry dropped by 6% to 90%. Construction is now delayed downstream. In the later stage, other manufacturers will take measures to limit production due to delivery or raw material problems, and it is expected that acrylonitrile production will still decline.
Downstream: the construction of water treatment project is stopped during Spring Festival holiday, and there is basically no downstream purchase order. Under the current situation, the construction enterprise’s return to work is strictly controlled, and there is little return to work.
Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, has been continuously shut down since receiving the notice of shut down on December 19, 2019. The long Spring Festival holiday mode of the factory meets public health emergencies again. According to the manufacturer, the inventory is relatively sufficient. At present, the demand is off-season, the procurement is weak, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.
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Industry:
1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.
2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.
3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.
4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from that day to January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.
5. In 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area shut down in the holiday mode with domestic special situation, and the application for resumption of work is strictly approved. It is reported that the manufacturers in the main production area have not started production so far.
Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the manufacturers in Henan have not resumed work, the inventory is acceptable, and the demand is weak; the current price of the upstream raw material acrylonitrile has little change, and it is predicted that the production will be limited due to the impact of shipment or other problems in the later period, resulting in the decline of the production; from the current factors, the price of polyacrylamide is likely to remain stable.
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