1、 Price trend
The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 10, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5450 yuan / ton, up 7.92% from last week.
At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was 5090 yuan / ton. Later, with the change of the situation in the United States and Iraq, it rose and recalled. By Friday, the price was 5290 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up 3.93%.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of January 8, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 67.81%, coal production 70.17% and non coal production 65.99%, basically the same as last week.
In terms of the unit, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 400000 tons in Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has been operated stably since the successful feeding on December 26, with a daily output of about 500 tons. The 700000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was commissioned on the 10th.
As of January 9, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 350000 tons, down 13000 tons or 15.66% from last Thursday, down 15000 tons or 4.11% from this Monday. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 175000 tons, 13000 tons lower than last Thursday; Ningbo has 62000 tons; Shanghai and Changshu have 46000 tons; Taicang has 47000 tons.
According to the news, the East China port is expected to reach 178000 tons of cargo next week, of which 65000 tons are planned to arrive at Zhangjiagang port and 43000 tons are planned to arrive at Taicang wharf.
In the downstream, polyester market gradually shut down for holidays. At present, the operation rate of the unit has declined slightly. After the early price went up, the enthusiasm of the downstream for purchasing high priced raw materials has weakened.
3、 Future forecast
This week, due to the conflict between the United States and Iran, the crude oil rose. Based on the factors expected to increase the cost, the price of glycol changed to a depressed state and the trend was stronger. In addition, due to the low arrival of the port, the main port inventory in East China is at an absolute low level, and the accumulated inventory expectation in the early stage is not realized, which also contributed to the increase of glycol price. However, in the later stage, the delivery of new devices will be put into normal operation, and the supply of goods will be supplemented. In January, the traditional demand for glycol is off-season. In the long run, the price of glycol has a slight downward pressure.