Commodity index: on January 10, 2020, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)
Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, which was slightly reduced by 0.1% this month.
Upstream: at the beginning of January 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased. The quotation on the first day was about 11200 yuan / ton. During this period, the quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times, and ended at 10800 yuan / ton in the first ten days. Since the second half of 2019, the price of acrylonitrile has been lowered for many times, and by the first ten days of January 2020, the decline rate has been about 3500-4000 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation rate is about 20%.
Downstream: in winter, the construction of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a great impact. At present, it has entered the coldest three or nine days of the year. The Spring Festival is not far away, and the construction ushers in the most slack season.
Manufacturer: from December 19, 2019 to January 10, 2020, Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice of production suspension, all of which were shut down, and the manufacturer had relatively sufficient stock. The vehicles under the Fifth Five-Year Plan were shut down, and the freight cost increased. The market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer first increased by 50 yuan / ton, and then some of the manufacturers also decreased due to weak demand.
This round of intermittent shutdown from the end of July 2019 is basically over, and the manufacturers start to resume production one after another, and the shutdown cycle returns. In the fourth quarter, they stop production again according to the requirements of environmental protection:
1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office.
2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.
3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.
4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.
5. From the beginning of January to the 10th, Gongyi water treatment related enterprises in the main production area of Henan province did not start production, but continued to stop production. It is reported that the local environmental protection is often inspected, and the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient.
Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the demand for the Spring Festival holiday is light and the supply of goods is sufficient; as the manufacturer is still in the period of production suspension, the impact of the upstream acrylonitrile price reduction is not significant. To sum up, polyacrylamide market is stable in the future and may weaken in the case of weak demand.