1、 Price trend
According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of December 27, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9636 yuan / ton, down 1.47% month on month, down 6.45% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
Product: this week, the focus of domestic BDO market was adjusted in a narrow range. In the early stage, the on-site load was low, the transportation in some areas was slow, the spot supply to the market was small, the factory continued to offer at a high level, the supply of low-end goods was reduced, and the focus of mainstream negotiation was slightly higher. Although crane coal has been restarted, its load is not high, and it mainly delivers contract orders, with no spot delivery. In the near future, Tianye has a driving plan, which coincides with the trial period of new sales models such as the hanging of settlement and unified marketing. The downstream of the main force should wait and see rationally and carefully wait for the guidance of clear news. At present, in addition to PBT commencement, other downstream multi-dimensional rigid demand; and the Spring Festival is coming, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance, and the demand side support is insufficient. At the same time, with the start of the negative, the supply side of the good weakened, the industry to see the stability of the future dominant mentality.
In terms of devices, this week, Tianye’s 210000 T / a device was shut down, and there is a restart plan this month, but the exact time is not yet determined; crane coal’s December 15 sunrise products, with a current load of about 50%; black cat’s December 20 restart plan; Chongqing Jianfeng’s December 15 shutdown and overhaul, with a month or so expected; new industry has produced qualified products, but has not yet entered the market. No planned changes have been heard for other devices. The overall market operating rate this week is around 66.6%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000t / A for Shaanxi black cat and 60000t / A for Xinjiang new industry, and removes 30000 T / A for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).
Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the domestic methanol price continued to fall this week, with a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price in the northwest region dropped by 30-50 yuan / ton to 1850 yuan / ton. However, due to the impact of snowfall, most regions were temporarily closed at high speed, and upstream factories had accumulated inventory, resulting in poor transaction atmosphere. In the second half of the week, the factory had no choice but to make up the freight again.
Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market increased in a narrow range, the inventory in Wuhai and Ningxia was low, and the enterprise’s rising mentality was gradually enhanced. With the recovery of the price, some devices that were shut down or load reduced in the early stage gradually increased, and the supply increased slightly.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the long-term delivery in the field is relatively stable, the spot market price is high, and the negotiation focus is high. In addition to PBT start-up in the downstream, other downstream multi-dimensional rigid demand; and the Spring Festival is coming, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance, and the demand side support is insufficient. At the same time, Tianye has a driving plan in the near future, and the main downstream is more cautious to wait and see, waiting for the guidance of clear news. Under the supply and demand game, BDO analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be stronger next week, focusing on the device dynamics and downstream demand changes.