The price of ethylene glycol will drop significantly in May 2026. As of May 22, the average price of the domestic oil to ethylene glycol market was 4903.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88% compared to the average price of 5155 yuan/ton on April 30.

In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 22nd, the basis price of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) fluctuates with the market. The basis price of spot contracts this week runs within the range of+90 to+95. As of the close, the basis price of contracts in May is+100 to+102, the basis price of contracts next week (before 6.05) is+110 to+115, and the basis price of contracts in June is+135 to+137.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4350-4450 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 21st, the negotiated landed price of Chinese ship cargo was around 623 US dollars/ton, and the negotiated landed price of Southeast Asian ship cargo was around 715 US dollars/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in May 2026:
On May 21, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 683000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on May 18, which was 678000 tons; Compared to April 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 772400 tons, a decrease of 89400 tons in inventory; Compared to March 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 953000 tons, a decrease of 270000 tons in inventory.
Analysis of the reasons for the price reduction of ethylene glycol on May 22, 2026:
On May 22, 2026, there was a double kill in the ethylene glycol futures market, with the main contract for ethylene glycol falling sharply, closing at 4587 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 3.19%, and hitting a low of 4483 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol at the port fell by 3.88% daily, and the spot price of ethylene glycol for domestic car delivery fell by 2.1% daily. This decline is a concentrated outbreak of cost collapse, supply-demand imbalance, and emotional resonance of funds, with the core triggering factor being the sudden news of the US Iran agreement draft being reached.
1、 Cost side: The disappearance of geopolitical premiums and the sharp drop in crude oil prices have led to the collapse of support
The sudden news directly triggered a drop in oil prices. On the early morning of May 22nd Beijing time, the media quoted Arab satellite television as saying that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement on the final draft of the agreement under the mediation of Pakistan, and the relevant content is expected to be announced within a few hours. With the expectation of “easing Middle East geopolitical risks and the return of Iranian crude oil to the market”, Brent crude oil quickly plunged from around $109 per barrel, with a intraday decline of over 6%. WTI crude oil fell below the $100 mark, directly driving the collapse of cost support for ethylene glycol.
The cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil is rapidly decreasing. Ethylene glycol is highly correlated with crude oil, and the sharp drop in oil prices has directly compressed the cost space for producing ethylene glycol from oil. The “risk premium” that was previously pushed up due to geopolitical conflicts has been quickly squeezed out, and the overall price center of the industrial chain has shifted downwards.
The cost of coal production is weakening synchronously, and the operating rate remains high. Domestic thermal coal prices remain stable and weak, with coal to ethylene glycol profits recovering and plant operating rates maintaining above 60%, further lowering the bottom line of spot costs.

2、 Supply side: Domestic high construction+revised import expectations supply pressure still exists
Domestic coal to ethylene glycol supply continues to increase. In May, the domestic coal to ethylene glycol production rate remained high, and the supply of goods was sufficient, creating sustained supply pressure on the market.
The expected reduction in imports is lagging behind, and there is still a buffer for short-term arrivals. Although the maintenance of multiple facilities in the Middle East has led to a decline in the expected import volume from May to June, the short-term arrival rhythm has not been fully reflected, and the market has partially advanced the pricing of “import reduction”, which has not formed an immediate supply gap.
Although the port inventory has been reduced, the absolute quantity is still relatively high. Although the inventory in the main ports of East China is in a continuous destocking channel, it is still at a moderate level in recent years, and its support for prices is limited.
3、 Demand side: Polyester off-season+terminal weakness, negative feedback, continuous fermentation
The operating rate of polyester has declined year-on-year, and the procurement of essential goods has shrunk. The average operating rate of domestic polyester factories in May was only 75% -77%, a year-on-year decrease of 3-5 percentage points, and the demand for essential purchases of ethylene glycol significantly shrank.
The terminal weaving orders are bleak, and there is a serious backlog of inventory. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is only 66%, with orders mainly consisting of small orders and fast response orders. The terminal inventory is high, and polyester factories actively reduce negative loads, forming a negative feedback loop of “weak demand → negative load reduction → less procurement → price decline”.
Raw material inventory has dropped to a low level, and the market has no intention of stockpiling. The raw material stocking days of the polyester factory are only 7.5 days, which is the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. It only maintains essential procurement and lacks purchasing support in terms of price.
4、 Funds and Emotions: High level profit taking+Break level stop loss, amplified decline
The early increase was too large, and profit taking orders were concentrated and left the market. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East from March to April, the main contract for ethylene glycol accumulated a large amount of profit taking. After May, with the expectation of geopolitical easing heating up, funds concentrated on profit taking.
Key support breaking triggers programmed stop loss. On May 22nd, the main contract fell below the key support level of 4600 yuan/ton, triggering a large number of programmed trading stop loss orders. Short selling forces were concentrated and released, amplifying the intraday decline.
Market expectations have turned pessimistic, with strong buying and wait-and-see sentiment. Due to weak terminal demand and loose cost support, the market’s expectations for the traditional off-season in June and July continue to deteriorate. Most traders and downstream factories remain cautious and unwilling to take the initiative to accept orders.