1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 27, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12850 yuan / ton, up 1.58% month on month and 11.02% year on year. The overall market was slightly lower.
2、 Market analysis
Product: the market price of aggregate MDI fell slightly this week, not much. This week, the weekly guidance prices of kostrong and East Cao Ruian kept steady and fell one by one, leading to the confusion of the post market mentality of the industry. Other main factories are still dominated by market control, there is no delivery pressure for the time being, and there are not many shippers in stock. In addition, considering that the settlement price of manufacturers at the end of the month is likely to be high, it is prudent to negotiate delivery. The downstream industry keeps a wait-and-see attitude towards the current “no go” market price, and the intention to stock a large number of goods temporarily is not strong. Near the end of next week, the manufacturers are waiting for the guidance of new moon listing of suppliers. The information expects that the market price will be stable in the next week with little fluctuation. Wait and see the weekly guidance price and downstream delivery of Shanghai Kesi Chuang. In addition, Wanhua Ningbo equipment will be restarted one after another, waiting for the manufacturer’s device announcement.
On the aspect of enterprises, the market news learned that a factory in Shanghai polymerized MDI’s quotation for dealers this week of 12300 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis. The market was informed that an enterprise in Ruian, Zhejiang Province, reported an aggregate MDI offer of 12600 yuan / ton this week, down from last week.
Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the inventory of East China’s ports remained at a low level of around 80000 tons, and the spot supply was still tight. The unexpected shutdown of European devices at the beginning of the week and the increase of downstream demand for pure benzene in the United States led to a sharp rise in the external market of the United States and Europe. The market price is hard to find because the main refineries have the conditions to adjust the price. The negotiated price rises to 6000-6050 yuan / ton. In the second half of the week, the external market fell back rationally, the main refineries failed to adjust the price, the market pull up atmosphere weakened, and the focus fell to 5850-5950 yuan / ton. In the past week, the downstream products of pure benzene, such as styrene and caprolactam, faced losses, which resisted the high price of pure benzene and also restricted the price rise of pure benzene.
Aniline: the domestic aniline market fell slightly. Aniline cost is under great pressure, and the plant is in the stage of loss at present. However, the starting load of downstream enterprises is not high, and most of them mainly consume the raw material inventory in the early stage, so the demand is poor, and the shipment of northern aniline factory is not smooth. But the East China enterprise ships goods primarily, does not have the sales pressure. It is reported that Nanhua has plans to purchase aniline for shipping, so the market price keeps falling in North China.
3、 Future forecast
Business Club view: near the end of next week, the operators are waiting for the new moon listing guidance of the supplier manufacturers. MDI analysts predict that the market price will be stable in the next week with little fluctuation. Wait and see the weekly guidance price and downstream delivery of Shanghai Kesi Chuang. In addition, Wanhua Ningbo equipment will be restarted one after another, waiting for the manufacturer’s device announcement.