1、 Price trend
Recently, the domestic butadiene market is stagnant. As of December 27, the price of butadiene was 8345 yuan / ton, down 3.59% on a month on month basis and 13.40% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: in this cycle, the domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated, and the market trend is slightly stagnant. In the week, Liaotong chemical suspended online export, and Fushun Petrochemical only sold 240 tons of goods on Thursday. The tightening supply of goods in Northeast China has supported the mentality of some businesses. But Jiutai, Huayu and other manufacturers normally ship goods, and the slightly high price node delivery situation is not good, resulting in a cautious market atmosphere. East China is also temporarily supported by the supply side news, but the market is full of low price news. The market trend continues to be weak in the week, and sporadic high price offers lack of real single support. In the later part of this week, Fushun’s supply of goods was restarted for export, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plant had a short-term commissioning plan, which led to the market’s return to weakness due to market uncertainty.
In terms of plant dynamics, Sinopec East China butadiene price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton in a week, and 8500 yuan / ton was implemented since 23rd; Liaotong chemical butadiene continued to suspend on-line export; Fushun Petrochemical’s export volume of goods sources was 7800-7860 yuan / ton, and the total volume of transactions in a week was 240 tons; Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, with a quotation of 7600 yuan / ton, stable compared with the same period last week The 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on December 16 and restarted on December 26, with an offer of 8900 yuan / T; the 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Nanjing Chengzhi was shut down on the evening of December 22 and restarted on the afternoon of December 25, with a supply contract; according to market news, the 200000 t / a new butadiene extraction unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is planned to be put into operation this weekend, please continue to pay attention to the details.
Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: in this cycle, the factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber sales companies has been falling, with the main decline of 200 yuan / ton, only PetroChina South China and Sinopec East China sales companies haven’t kept pace. As of the receipt of the draft, the main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 is 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In this cycle, the operating rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.80% this week; Qilu, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Shenhua, Weitai and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plant are all in normal operation, and two lines of operation are resumed near Yangzi Petrochemical styrene butadiene plant on the 23rd; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continue to stop.
Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company fell by 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous cycle; as of the receipt of the manuscript, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company was around 10800 yuan / ton; Sinopec East China and PetroChina South China sales company did not make any adjustment. In this cycle, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is around 60%, the load of Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is not full, other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants in China keep normal operation, and the overall operation rate of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is less than that of the previous cycle.
3、 Future forecast
On the positive side, the operation of sporadic devices is not good, and there is a bottom support for the market just in need of bargain hunting. On the negative side, the supply side of the market is relatively abundant, cargo continues to arrive at the port to supplement, and the downstream market trend of the industrial chain is weak. The supply side of the previous cycle is temporarily supported by downstream demand, which makes it difficult to boost the butadiene market. As the supply side support weakens, the market supply of the next cycle may be gradually relaxed. In addition, with the arrival of ships and the trial run plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical plant, it is difficult to find good news in the short-term butadiene market. Butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be extended To continue the weak situation, it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand fundamentals and transaction guidance.