I. price trend
According to a large number of data on the business club’s list, the end of the month fell slightly after the shock rise of pure benzene flattened. On October 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5000-5400 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76% compared with the end of last month.
II. Analysis and comment
1. Crude oil: this month’s crude oil overall shows a trend of shock rise. WTI oil price is 7.25% higher than last month, Brent oil price is 6.04% higher than last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced.
2. Product: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.
3. Downstream: this month, the downstream styrene fell in shock, down 1.98% month on month. This month, the aniline plant recovered its load, the supply increased, and the price fell, down 19.11% month on month. The downstream products of pure benzene generally have low profits, such as caprolactam, styrene and other products have lost money, which is bad for pure benzene.
III. future forecast
1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the international oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the downside risk is large. There are signs at the end of the month that OPEC and other oil producers are reluctant to cut production further at the December meeting, and oil prices are likely to decline.
2. Domestic and foreign markets: at present, the weak downstream demand of domestic pure benzene will still restrict the market recovery.
Comprehensive consideration, it is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.