According to the data of the business associations’list, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise in July, with an increase rate of 5.90%. Most of the quotations of dealers had several price adjustments, with an increase of 300-500 yuan per ton or so. By the end of the weekend, the quotation is generally between 8500 and 8700 yuan/ton.
II. Analytical Review
This month, the adipic acid market reversed its downward trend in June, and the market rebounded. Under the influence of upstream costs, factory price adjustments, and high price settlement at the end of the month, prices rose repeatedly. The fundamental reason for the rise was the soaring upstream pure benzene. According to the monitoring of business associations, the increase of pure benzene reached 8.10% in July. Considering the lag of cost transmission, the market quotation of adipic acid was passively raised by increasing more than 17% in June and July. However, at present, the downstream market wait-and-see mentality is still relatively heavy, purchasing behavior is biased towards rationality, and there is room for merchants to make profits. Social inventory still shows some pressure, and the shipment dynamics do not change much compared with the previous period.
On the supply side, the market still shows certain supply pressure, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the level of equipment maintenance is not high, the median level of inventory performance of manufacturers, distributors are getting goods one after another, and the current market inventory is constantly degraded. Therefore, although adipic acid market quotation has increased, but also There are many relatively low-priced goods in the market, and the overall supply pressure is still in the market, which leads to the strong willingness of distributors to let profits go of inventory, the price difference between market price offer and actual transaction, and the market quotation is relatively chaotic.
In terms of demand, downstream demand is moderate. Although nylon 66 belongs to the peak season of market consumption, there is no phenomenon of centralized purchasing in the downstream this year, so the downstream start-up rate has not generally increased. The start-up rate is basically 5-60%. The upstream adipic acid has not formed a strong boost, so this market. The rebound basically depends on the upstream pure benzol, driven by the cost effect, which belongs to the passive follow-up. The market is still going out of stock cycle.
3. Future Market Forecast
The analyst of adipic acid in the branch of business society and chemical industry thinks that the price of adipic acid is stabilizing and rebounding at present, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, the cost pressure also exists, and the profit margin of the manufacturer is further compressed. It is expected that adipic acid will easily rise and fall in the later period without reversing the cost side. Therefore, the Business Association believes that adipic acid will be in the short run or in the short run. We will continue to maintain a narrow upward adjustment pattern.