According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the beginning of the week price of 10766.67 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.73%.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream negotiated price in various regions of the country being 10600-11000 yuan/ton. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for the market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Some manufacturers have accumulated inventory, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend has declined, with an average price of 3575 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.04% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3612.5 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tense mining situation in upstream mines, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased. With the decrease in temperature and the increase in rainy and snowy weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited. However, in recent times, there has been strong resistance from downstream towards high priced fluorite, and the procurement situation has been average. The price of fluorite has decreased, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to decline.

The price trend of sulfuric acid in the market has declined this week, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 288 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.64%. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid has declined, with some cost reduction. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have decreased their purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid has declined this week. As a result, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has slightly declined.

On the demand side, the market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly falling. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end quotations have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled down. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand for the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry is maintaining low production, and demand is poor, making it difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to improve.

Market forecast: In the near future, the upstream raw material fluorite market will slightly decline, and the price of sulfuric acid may show a downward trend; The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry market remains at a low level, and there is poor enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. In the short term, hydrofluoric acid prices will remain at a low and volatile level.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have slightly declined this week. The price of sulfuric acid has dropped from 292.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 288.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.37%, and the weekend price has dropped by 4.53% year-on-year.

The upstream market is consolidating at a high level, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has stabilized at a high level, with sulfur prices at 1060.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, prices fell by 29.96% year-on-year. The upstream market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has remained stable at a high level, with a market price of 3500.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 1.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, with a market price of 16650.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 4.50% year-on-year. The downstream market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 8th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6960 yuan/ton, which is 7000 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on December 4th. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased by 0.57%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 8th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6833 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6833 yuan/ton on December 4th. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid has decreased, while the market price of wet process phosphoric acid has remained stable. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have been lowered, weakening cost support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and the demand in the phosphoric acid market is sluggish. Trading is limited, and transactions are mainly negotiated on a single basis. As of December 8th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6400-7150 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6150-7550 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market saw a slight decline this week. Some mining companies in certain regions have adjusted the prices of high-end grade phosphate ore in new orders, with a price reduction of about 10-30 yuan/ton for 30 grade phosphate ore. The phosphate ore market in other regions has remained stable. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the downstream market situation is weak. The domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. The market trading situation is light, and the market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see. Downstream purchases are generally average, with demand being the main focus. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe, the phosphoric acid market has recently weakened, with a slight adjustment being the main trend. The trend of raw material market is not good, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream demand remains sluggish, and the industry has a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be weakly consolidated and operated.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in November was 1732.50 yuan/ton on November 1st and 1680.00 yuan/ton on November 29th, with a monthly decline of 3.03%.

Cost side: Limited cost support for petroleum coke in the downward trend of crude oil fluctuations

In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and a decline in domestic petroleum coke market prices.

Supply side: Port inventory rising, pressure on refined petroleum coke shipments

In November, ships importing petroleum coke arrived at ports one after another, but domestic petroleum coke prices continued to decline, sponge coke delivery speed significantly slowed down, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in ports increased. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. Refinery shipments are under pressure, and trading is light. Refineries adjust prices based on changes in their own indicators.

Demand side: Metal silicon and electrolytic aluminum reduce production of petroleum coke. Downstream market overall declines

In November, metal silicon first fell and then stabilized. As of November 29th, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from the beginning of the month. The main production areas in Southwest China have gradually entered the flat and dry seasons. Based on the current scale of production stoppage, the production reduction in Southwest China in November did not exceed expectations. In the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that the production will decrease month on month. The newly invested production capacity of Northwest large factories is slowly being released. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

In November, the overall shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke was average, with poor trading, and the price of raw petroleum coke continued to decline. The downstream aluminum carbon and negative electrode markets performed weakly, with more purchases made on demand and production maintained as the main focus. The support for calcined coke prices was limited, and coupled with high inventory of medium sulfur calcined coke, the price of medium sulfur calcined coke continued to decline in November.

The electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and declined in November. Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, with large operating capacity. In the southwest direction, Yunnan’s production reduction effect is gradually showing, and the output has significantly decreased. However, in terms of downstream demand, there is a seasonal weakening trend, but the possibility of a significant short-term weakening is not high. The overall market situation for aluminum carbon is weak, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a necessity.

Market forecast: The recent international crude oil market has been volatile, with limited support for the petroleum coke market; At present, the overall high inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market, coupled with weak downstream demand, is mainly based on on-demand procurement. But as the current price of locally refined petroleum coke continues to decline, downstream enterprises will replenish as needed, and it is expected that locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 30th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 52000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in December. Currently, the mainstream price is around 52000 yuan/ton, with a price of 63600 yuan/ton in early November and 52000 yuan/ton at the end of November. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with limited new customer transactions and mainly contract customers.

In November, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with a downward trend. Overall, the price fell by 15.34% in November, with a drop of 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream restocking is on demand, with poor demand and average stocking willingness. Upstream lithium carbonate experienced a significant decline in November, with limited cost support, sufficient supply, and slow shipment. The overall market is under pressure.

Commodity index: On November 29th, the chemical index was 869 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that in the short term, the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with insufficient support on the cost side, poor downstream demand, and insufficient upward momentum.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market prices fluctuated and fell in November, with an upward trend in prices at the end of the month. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market has dropped from 13075.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12775.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.29%, and the end of month price has dropped by 9.72% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly decreased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective: In November, the market price of maleic anhydride first fell and then rose. The price of maleic anhydride first fell from 7312.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6932.00 yuan/ton on November 9th, a decrease of 5.20%, and then rose to 7160.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.29%. Overall, the market price of maleic anhydride in November fell slightly by 2.08%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 2.29% year-on-year. In November, the market for 1,4-butanediol experienced a significant decline. The price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 10157.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9628.57 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 0.90% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected.

From the demand side, the price of spandex in the market decreased slightly in November. The price of spandex decreased from 33750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 32575.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.48%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 11.24% year-on-year. The downstream spandex market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future: In mid to early December, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream market for maleic anhydride and 1,4-butanediol has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

On November 29th, the crude benzene commodity index was 99.69, a decrease of 2.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.39% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 226.42% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the crude benzene market experienced a downward trend in November 2023, with the domestic ex factory price of crude benzene at 6673.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6216.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 6.86%.

Crude oil prices: The international oil market has been weak and volatile during the cycle, with international crude oil futures prices continuing to rise as of November 29th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $77.86 per barrel, with an increase of $1.45 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was 82.88 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.41 US dollars or 1.8%. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that on a macro level, the recent weakening of the US dollar may provide support for oil prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, oil prices tend to fluctuate within a range on the eve of the OPEC+meeting, mainly due to news disturbances. Future supply expectations depend on the formulation and implementation of OPEC+production policies, and tight supply expectations can hedge against the risk of declining demand. The future supply-demand game will intensify, and oil prices are likely to experience broad fluctuations.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been lowered four times in November, with a cumulative decrease of 850 yuan/ton. The listed price of Sinopec pure benzene continues to be implemented at 7200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene has slightly declined this month, with a sharp decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On November 1st, the price was 7913 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.05% from the same period last year.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain in November was relatively small in the first half of the month, and the decline expanded in the second half. During the month, crude oil and styrene prices both fell, dragging down the sentiment of the pure benzene market. East China pure benzene continued to decline, and the market actively shipped, but downstream entry enthusiasm was poor, and overall market trading was relatively quiet. There were some unexpected parking plans in the downstream market near the end of the month, which affected the overall weak expectations of the downstream market. Sinopec has cumulatively lowered its listing price by 850 yuan/ton within the month, and currently implements a price reduction of 7200 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has fallen, with some regions dropping to 6850 yuan/ton. Most of the main production areas have quoted at 7200 yuan/ton. Due to recent market performance, some hydrogenated benzene enterprises have maintenance plans, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.

Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, has a price trend closely following the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. Therefore, the trend of crude benzene is mainly influenced by the pure benzene industry chain. The pure benzene market experienced a broad decline in November, and crude benzene continued to decline in November due to the impact. In terms of supply, due to the continuous increase in raw material coking coal prices, the profits of coking enterprises were low, and they took the initiative to limit production and increase. The overall operating rate of coking enterprises declined during the month, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. In terms of demand, the expected operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has declined, and the overall market mentality is weak. We will maintain on-demand replenishment of crude benzene, and currently, there is still support for essential demand. At the end of the month, the rebound of the crude oil market for several consecutive days provided some positive support for the pure benzene industry chain, while the decline in the spot market slowed down. It is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will still operate weakly in the short term, with a focus on the impact of the later crude oil and styrene market trends on market sentiment.

Recently (11.20-11.29), the market for trichloromethane has been weak and temporarily stable. According to data from Business Society, as of November 29th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province remained stable at 2066 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has shifted downwards; However, the overall downstream demand is weak with only a small amount of hard demand support, and transactions in the trichloromethane market are rare, with factory prices of enterprises temporarily stable.

Recently (11.20-11.29), the domestic supply of trichloromethane has been basically stable.

Recently (11.20-11.29), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have slightly decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% from 2450 yuan/ton on the 20th. As of November 29th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 400 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous period.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of rigid demand support for refrigerants at the terminal. Currently, the trading price of refrigerant R22 is weak and stable, and the operating level is low. The demand support for trichloromethane is weak. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that a small amount of rigid demand has weak support for trichloromethane, and on the other hand, there is still support for costs. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to narrow in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 27, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7766 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7466 yuan/ton), the price increased by 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.02%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from November to present, the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China has gradually been upward in fluctuations. In the early stages, the n-butanol market showed a “first decline and then rise” trend. In the first two days of the month, trading on the n-butanol exchange was light, and the market situation slightly declined. Starting from the 3rd, the n-butanol market experienced a recovery operation, with downstream stage stocking, concentrated demand for n-butanol in the market, active new orders on the exchange, and the focus of the n-butanol market continuously moving towards the high-end. As of November 10th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 7633 yuan/ton, with a 3.12% increase in the first half of the year.

In the mid to late stage, the market for n-butanol in Shandong region experienced a mixed trend of ups and downs. Starting from the 11th, downstream demand for n-butanol returned to calm, while the market for n-butanol fell from a high level. Starting from the 15th, n-butanol continued to welcome positive demand, with a slight correction in market focus.

In the latter half of the year, the n-butanol market as a whole showed an “upward” trend, with some facilities in the n-butanol field temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall supply from the supply side. The supply side supported the market mentality, and downstream demand and stocking were normal. The focus of the n-butanol market continued to rise. As of November 27th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7700-7900 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere within the n-butanol market is mild, and the supply and demand transmission is stable. The overall operating rate of n-butanol has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply side still provides some support to the market. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market is mainly stable, with a moderate to strong operation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5437.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% and a month on month decrease of 1.36%. The current price has dropped by 7.23% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has risen. From the chart, it can be seen that the recent potassium nitrate market has continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, and this week’s market continues to rise. Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices have remained high and firm, with good cost support. The supply of goods is mostly in the hands of traders, and the market circulation of goods is limited, resulting in an increase in the potassium nitrate market. According to the statistics of Business Society, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5150-5300 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and increased: currently, the market price of domestic 60% crystals is mostly between 2820-2850 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and analysts from Shengyishe Potassium Chloride believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

In recent times, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been mainly volatile and consolidating, and new policies from domestic manufacturers are still being discussed. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.