Poor terminal demand led to a downward oscillation in November for refined petroleum coke

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in November was 1732.50 yuan/ton on November 1st and 1680.00 yuan/ton on November 29th, with a monthly decline of 3.03%.


Cost side: Limited cost support for petroleum coke in the downward trend of crude oil fluctuations


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In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and a decline in domestic petroleum coke market prices.


Supply side: Port inventory rising, pressure on refined petroleum coke shipments


In November, ships importing petroleum coke arrived at ports one after another, but domestic petroleum coke prices continued to decline, sponge coke delivery speed significantly slowed down, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in ports increased. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. Refinery shipments are under pressure, and trading is light. Refineries adjust prices based on changes in their own indicators.


Demand side: Metal silicon and electrolytic aluminum reduce production of petroleum coke. Downstream market overall declines


In November, metal silicon first fell and then stabilized. As of November 29th, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from the beginning of the month. The main production areas in Southwest China have gradually entered the flat and dry seasons. Based on the current scale of production stoppage, the production reduction in Southwest China in November did not exceed expectations. In the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that the production will decrease month on month. The newly invested production capacity of Northwest large factories is slowly being released. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.


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In November, the overall shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke was average, with poor trading, and the price of raw petroleum coke continued to decline. The downstream aluminum carbon and negative electrode markets performed weakly, with more purchases made on demand and production maintained as the main focus. The support for calcined coke prices was limited, and coupled with high inventory of medium sulfur calcined coke, the price of medium sulfur calcined coke continued to decline in November.


The electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and declined in November. Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, with large operating capacity. In the southwest direction, Yunnan’s production reduction effect is gradually showing, and the output has significantly decreased. However, in terms of downstream demand, there is a seasonal weakening trend, but the possibility of a significant short-term weakening is not high. The overall market situation for aluminum carbon is weak, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a necessity.

Market forecast: The recent international crude oil market has been volatile, with limited support for the petroleum coke market; At present, the overall high inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market, coupled with weak downstream demand, is mainly based on on-demand procurement. But as the current price of locally refined petroleum coke continues to decline, downstream enterprises will replenish as needed, and it is expected that locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.


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