In December 2023, the industrial chain was boosted, and hydrogenated benzene continued to rise

On December 28th, the hydrogenation benzene commodity index was 79.29, an increase of 0.19 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 108.17 points (2022-06-15), and an increase of 164.39% from the lowest point of 29.99 points on April 7th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2013 to present).

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall market for hydrogenated benzene was on the rise in December 2023. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.65%.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Crude oil prices: International crude oil futures plummeted by over 3% on December 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of $2.34 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.15 per barrel, a decrease of $2.39 or 3.0%. Red Sea shipping has gradually resumed, geopolitical risks have eased, and oil prices are under pressure. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current sustained rebound in oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitical tensions. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand game remains the main logic of transactions: on the supply side, OPEC+deepens production cuts, and the expected increase in US production will show a trade-off. On the demand side, the depreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of a Fed rate cut will boost oil prices. Overall, the short-term impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices will continue to explore upward space, while the medium – and long-term supply and demand will exacerbate the broad fluctuations in the oil market

 

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has fluctuated, with recent declines followed by gains.

 

In December 2023, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was lowered twice and raised twice, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. Currently, it is being implemented at 7250 yuan/ton.

 

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7063 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton.

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene slightly decreased at the beginning of this month, and has been rising since mid month. On December 1st, the price was 6692 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was at 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.03% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.68% from the same period last year.

 

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In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market in December basically followed the overall trend of crude oil, falling first and then rising. In the first half of the month, it continued to decline, and in the second half, it steadily rose and recovered the month’s decline, ultimately closing up 8.03%. Sinopec’s listed price first fell and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated, and by the end of the month, mainstream manufacturers in the main production areas were executing 7200 yuan/ton, indicating a strong overall operation of the industrial chain.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.

 

As the end of the month approaches, crude oil is expected to decline and styrene market is expected to decline, which will have a certain drag on the pure benzene market. The spot market is also expected to decline. In addition, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started operating lower recently, and market expectations for future production may decline due to profit influence. The supply of hydrogenated benzene is expected to be slightly tight, and with mixed negative and positive factors, it is expected that the hydrogenated benzene market will tend to fluctuate in the future. The focus is on the impact of subsequent crude oil and styrene market trends on market sentiment.

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Domestic tetrahydrofuran prices increased by 1.17% in December

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market fluctuated and increased in December. The price of tetrahydrofuran increased from 12775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12925 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.17%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 0.58% year-on-year.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

 

From a cost perspective, the market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in December, rising from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7860 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.70%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.61% at the end of the month. The market situation for 1,4-butanediol slightly declined in December. The price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9628.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9535.71 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.96%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.10% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

 

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From the demand side, the price of spandex in the market decreased slightly in December. The price of spandex decreased from 32575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 32125 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.38%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 9.51% year-on-year. The downstream spandex market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

 

Looking at the future: In mid to early January, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream maleic anhydride and market conditions have significantly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream spandex market is showing an upward trend, while downstream demand is average. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and increases mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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In 2023, the PMMA market will experience ups and downs

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 28th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and superior product in China, was 14800 yuan/ton. The price of PMMA for the whole year has decreased by 0.5%, and the price has remained stable with a small fluctuation range. The price position for the whole year is around 14800 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

In 2023, the PMMA market was lukewarm, with less than expected demand and limited upward space. The mainstream price remained around 14800 yuan/ton due to insufficient momentum. In the first half of 2023, PMMA showed a continuous downward trend, with a price drop of 100 yuan/ton, which was not too large. Later in the second half of the year, prices experienced a brief rebound, with an upward space of around 150 yuan/ton, and the fluctuations were particularly small, Although it is an indispensable high-quality material in daily life, the PMMA market has relatively concentrated sales, and there are very few manufacturers in the country that can sustain the long-term production of PMMA. Therefore, the common brands in the market are well-known to everyone, including a few enterprises.

 

PMMA, also known as organic glass, is widely used not only in commercial, light industry, construction, chemical and other fields. Moreover, the production of organic glass is widely used in advertising decoration and sand table models, such as signs, billboards, light box panels, and Chinese and English letter panels, all of which require the participation of organic glass. Organic glass can be divided into four types according to its appearance, with colorless transparent organic glass being the most common and currently being tracked by business societies. Colored transparent organic glass, commonly known as color plates, is used to make lighting fixtures, etc. It is transparent and transparent in the air, Pearlescent organic glass is made by adding pearlescent powder or fluorescent powder to general organic glass. This type of organic glass has a bright color, and embossed organic glass can be used as embossed glass, which is transparent, semi transparent, and colorless.

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From the comparison chart of upstream and downstream, it can be seen that the upstream trend has no significant impact on PMMA. The trend of PMMA mainly depends on downstream demand, and the amount of downstream demand is the main reason affecting PMMA. Currently, the overall market of PMMA is in a state of supply and demand balance, and production capacity and demand are just in balance, making it difficult for prices to experience explosive growth and decline. So the probability of PMMA maintaining its current status in 2024 is relatively high, and there won’t be much improvement.

 

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that for many years, PMMA has been in a state of supply and demand balance, and there will be no sharp rise or fall in the market. It mainly depends on downstream demand, and the relationship with upstream is not very significant.

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Polyaluminum chloride market slightly rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride has recently seen a slight increase. The solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China was mainly quoted at around 1772.50 yuan/ton on the 18th, an increase of 0.35% from the quoted price of 1778.75 yuan/ton on the 26th. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have normal production, sufficient market inventory, downstream procurement on demand, stable raw material hydrochloric acid prices, and a consolidation of the polyaluminum chloride market.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has remained stable recently, and as of December 26th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is 112.50 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidating at a low level recently, with average cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride prices have fluctuated and risen, and the downstream purchasing willingness is good.

 

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Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of liquefied natural gas in China has recently increased significantly. Frequent cold air attacks in China have been affected by cooling weather in many areas, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment demand and a continuous rise in liquefied natural gas prices. After snowfall, traffic flows smoothly. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have raised prices. The slight increase in raw gas prices has increased cost support, driving up liquid prices.

 

Market forecast: This week, raw material prices remain stable, the fuel liquefied natural gas market has significantly increased, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride has fluctuated. On the supply side, Chinese polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are producing normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

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US sanctions push up zinc prices

Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen this week

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 25th, the zinc price was 21472 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 21022 yuan/ton on December 17th. The US sanctions against Russian zinc mining giants, coupled with macroeconomic data support, have led to a general rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise this week.

 

US sanctions against Russian zinc mining giants

 

The Office of Foreign Assets Control, a subsidiary of the US Department of Commerce, released the latest sanctions on Tuesday, with Russian mining giant Sviblov becoming the latest business person to be blacklisted. The companies controlled by Sviblov dominate the gold mining industry in Russia, and those affected by Sviblov sanctions include Ozernoye, a company that is developing one of the world’s largest zinc mines. The production of this mine is expected to account for 4% of global production, and if operated at full capacity, the project will become one of the largest zinc mines in the world. Affected by sanctions, the spot price of zinc on the London Metal Exchange rose slightly by 1.4% on Tuesday, while domestic zinc prices followed suit.

 

The non-ferrous metal sector generally rose

 

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The recent sharp decline in the US dollar index has made metals denominated in the US dollar cheaper for holders of other currencies. The non-ferrous metal market is favorable, while the non-ferrous metal prices are generally rising, and the zinc market is favorable.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

According to data analysts from Business Society, the US sanctions against Russia have reduced expectations of zinc mine supply, which has affected the rise in zinc prices; However, due to the impact of US economic data, the US dollar index has fallen, and the non-ferrous metal sector is positive. The prices of non-ferrous metals have generally risen, while zinc prices have followed the rise of sector prices. In the future, the impact of reduced zinc ore supply in Russia may continue. However, in recent months, there has been a significant oversupply of zinc ore, and the overall zinc market is still oversupplied. The sustained rise in zinc prices lacks support, and it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate.

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Domestic sulfuric acid prices remain stable this week (12.18-12.24)

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price remained stable this week, with a price of 282.00 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 4.94% year-on-year.

 

Upstream market slightly declined, downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened

 

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have remained stable this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

 

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From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 1110.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1090.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.83% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 3500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3466.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.03% over the weekend. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, with a market price of 16483.33 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 3.45% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

 

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

 

In late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market has started to decline slightly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

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The melamine market is mainly stable (12.18-12.22)

The melamine market has remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7250.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

 

Melamine

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on December 21 was 2558.33, a decrease of 1.67% compared to December 1 (2601.67). Recently, the market price of raw material urea has slightly declined, and the cost face is generally supported by the melamine market.

 

Supply and demand side: Some enterprises on the supply side have shut down their facilities, resulting in a reduction in overall market supply compared to the previous period. Downstream hoarding is concentrated towards the end of the year, and enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued. Market trading is orderly, and the melamine market is operating steadily with a strong bias towards stability.

 

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, the market supply is tight, and companies are orderly shipping early orders. The market atmosphere is still good, and it is expected that the melamine market may operate steadily, with a stronger trend in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

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The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride has fallen this week

The price of aluminum fluoride has dropped this week

 

Melamine

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 21st, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the price of aluminum fluoride on December 14th, which was 10950 yuan/ton. Aluminum fluoride enterprises have temporarily stabilized production, with sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. Raw material prices have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased. This week, aluminum fluoride prices have fallen.

 

Reduced raw material costs

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the price of fluorite was 3550 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.70% compared to the price of 3575 yuan/ton on December 14th; Compared to the quoted price of 3612.50 yuan/ton on December 1st, it has decreased by 1.73%. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

 

Market Overview and Forecast

 

Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry analyst believes that the price of fluorite has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased; Aluminum fluoride enterprises have stable operations and sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. In the future, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride are relatively balanced, and the cost of raw materials has decreased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

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The market for butadiene rubber has slightly declined

Recently (12.11-12.18), the market for butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 11900 yuan/ton on the 11th.

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The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly declined. Downstream tire factories are operating steadily, and demand for butadiene rubber is slightly weak. In addition, the supply side has slightly decreased, and the pressure on butadiene rubber is slightly eased. The overall transaction volume of butadiene rubber in the off-season is light. As of December 18th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 11600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of Shunding rubber in the East China region is reported at 11500-11900 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11200-11600 yuan/ton.

 

Recently (12.11-12.18), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly decreased, and Maoming Petrochemical’s butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance starting from the 13th.

 

Recently (12.11-12.18), the price of butadiene has significantly declined, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price of butadiene was 8058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.15% from 8407 yuan/ton on December 11th.

 

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Recently (12.11-12.18), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and fallen, and the atmosphere in the rubber market is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price was at 12380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from 12470 yuan/ton on December 11th, and the lowest point in the cycle was at 12320 yuan/ton.

 

Demand side: Recently (12.11-12.18), tire production has been stable with all steel tires, and the demand for rubber is mainly weak. It is understood that as of mid December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

 

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society, the cost of butadiene rubber has significantly decreased and the demand has weakened during the off-season. Although Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance recently, the overall supply of butadiene rubber is still loose, and it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will be weak and consolidate in the future.

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Supply and demand support, n-butanol market welcomes another upward trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 18, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8733 yuan/ton. Compared with December 12 (reference price of n-butanol was 8433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 267 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56%. Compared with December 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 7766 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 967 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.02%.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.12-12.18), the domestic market for n-butanol in Shandong region has shown an upward trend. In early December, with the support of both supply and demand, the n-butanol market saw a broad upward trend. Subsequently, after downstream demand calmed down, the market for n-butanol fell back from a high level. Starting from December 12th, the n-butanol market has seen another upward trend, with the market’s focus constantly moving towards high levels. As of December 18th, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region has been around 8700-8800 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 3% in seven days.

 

Analysis of factors supporting the upward trend of n-butanol market:

 

In terms of supply: Recently, some regions in China have temporarily shut down their n-butanol plants for maintenance, leading to a reduction in expected supply within the n-butanol plant. The pressure on the supply side is relatively low, and the supply side provides support for the n-butanol market.

 

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In terms of demand: Recently, due to weather and other factors, logistics and transportation conditions in some regions of China have been restricted, and some downstream regions have started early stocking. Downstream demand circulation has improved, and the demand side has boosted the n-butanol market.

 

Future analysis

 

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the exchange is still good, and the mentality of the operators is good. The inquiry atmosphere on the exchange is mild. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

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