On November 29th, the crude benzene commodity index was 99.69, a decrease of 2.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.39% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 226.42% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the crude benzene market experienced a downward trend in November 2023, with the domestic ex factory price of crude benzene at 6673.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6216.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 6.86%.
Crude oil prices: The international oil market has been weak and volatile during the cycle, with international crude oil futures prices continuing to rise as of November 29th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $77.86 per barrel, with an increase of $1.45 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was 82.88 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.41 US dollars or 1.8%. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that on a macro level, the recent weakening of the US dollar may provide support for oil prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, oil prices tend to fluctuate within a range on the eve of the OPEC+meeting, mainly due to news disturbances. Future supply expectations depend on the formulation and implementation of OPEC+production policies, and tight supply expectations can hedge against the risk of declining demand. The future supply-demand game will intensify, and oil prices are likely to experience broad fluctuations.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.
The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been lowered four times in November, with a cumulative decrease of 850 yuan/ton. The listed price of Sinopec pure benzene continues to be implemented at 7200 yuan/ton.
Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene has slightly declined this month, with a sharp decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On November 1st, the price was 7913 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.05% from the same period last year.
In terms of the industrial chain, the overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain in November was relatively small in the first half of the month, and the decline expanded in the second half. During the month, crude oil and styrene prices both fell, dragging down the sentiment of the pure benzene market. East China pure benzene continued to decline, and the market actively shipped, but downstream entry enthusiasm was poor, and overall market trading was relatively quiet. There were some unexpected parking plans in the downstream market near the end of the month, which affected the overall weak expectations of the downstream market. Sinopec has cumulatively lowered its listing price by 850 yuan/ton within the month, and currently implements a price reduction of 7200 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has fallen, with some regions dropping to 6850 yuan/ton. Most of the main production areas have quoted at 7200 yuan/ton. Due to recent market performance, some hydrogenated benzene enterprises have maintenance plans, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.
Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, has a price trend closely following the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. Therefore, the trend of crude benzene is mainly influenced by the pure benzene industry chain. The pure benzene market experienced a broad decline in November, and crude benzene continued to decline in November due to the impact. In terms of supply, due to the continuous increase in raw material coking coal prices, the profits of coking enterprises were low, and they took the initiative to limit production and increase. The overall operating rate of coking enterprises declined during the month, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. In terms of demand, the expected operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has declined, and the overall market mentality is weak. We will maintain on-demand replenishment of crude benzene, and currently, there is still support for essential demand. At the end of the month, the rebound of the crude oil market for several consecutive days provided some positive support for the pure benzene industry chain, while the decline in the spot market slowed down. It is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will still operate weakly in the short term, with a focus on the impact of the later crude oil and styrene market trends on market sentiment.