1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 rose and fell in July, and the rise of spot price was blocked. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for China viscosity was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.77% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 40.12% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic caprolactam spot market rose in July and fluctuated at a high level. In July, the positive supply side was undertaken at the end of June, and the increase of this month was also concentrated in the first ten days of this month. In the middle of the month, international crude oil fell, while the supply of direct raw material pure benzene was expected to increase, the downward pressure increased, and the rise of domestic caprolactam was blocked. At the end of the month, although the trend of raw material pure benzene did not improve, the supply side support remained due to the tight supply of factory maintenance. On the demand side, there is no obvious benefit, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam will be stable in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam price range remained high, and the positive cost side of PA6 supported the rise of spot price in early July. However, the high cost pressure suppressed the operating rate of polymerization plants. In July, the load of domestic PA6 polymerization plants changed less than that at the beginning of the month, stabilizing at about 60%. The market demand is sluggish, the consumption of terminal enterprises has not yet come out of the off-season market, and there is a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue. Among them, the feedback of high-speed spinning chips is acceptable due to the positive impact of cost, and the price of conventional spinning in the middle and late days is mainly limited. I heard that most of the manufacturers’ actual shipments are early orders, and many merchants have active shipment operations. At present, buyers are in the mood of offsetting the high price supply, and the preparation operation is biased towards the just needed replenishment to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 remained stable after rising in July, which supports the cost of PA6. In the first ten days, PA6 passively followed the rise of raw materials. Although the cost pressure compressed the operating rate of the industry, the domestic chip inventory still increased and the supply side was weakened. The end-users followed up slowly, the venue resisted the supply of high-priced goods, the spot was under pressure in the middle and late days, and the merchants gradually let the profits ship. At present, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may weaken in a narrow range in the short term.