Recent trend of urea price
As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2330.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2353.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.00%, and a year-on-year increase of 43.50%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 109.46 on May 28, showing an upward trend over the weekend.
The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is good, and the supply side is tight
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The price of urea in Yangmei plain this weekend is 2360 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2330 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2370 yuan / ton this weekend, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.
From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea this week are on the rise and fall with each other as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 3463.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3493.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.87%, up 37.89% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal decreased slightly, from 900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 856.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 4.86%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.28%. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3970.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4103.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 3.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.54%. The quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell sharply this week, from 13900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 31.41%.
From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. From the supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. In terms of Indian bidding: the bidding price of India RCF company announced that the bidding quantity of East Coast is 795000 tons CFR, and the lowest price is 408.88 US dollars / ton CFR. On the whole, the urea cost support this week is general, the downstream demand is better, and the urea supply is tight.
The price is still strong in the future
In the first ten days of June, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.