The calcium carbide market continued to decline after a slight rebound in the first half of April, with a significant drop in market prices. The national benchmark price fell from 2724 yuan/ton on April 1st to 2324 yuan/ton on April 28th, with a monthly decline of 14.68%, and the price fell back to the lowest level of the year.

The decline is mainly due to three aspects: on the supply side, the concentrated resumption of production and load reduction devices in the early stage, the high operating rate of the industry, the accumulation of inventory due to sufficient supply, and the strong willingness of enterprises to lower prices and ship goods; On the demand side, the downstream PVC and BDO industries have entered the spring maintenance cycle, with a decrease in daily consumption of calcium carbide and a shift towards just in demand procurement. In addition, PVC prices have fallen synchronously, and industry losses have expanded, leading to increased pressure on downstream prices; On the cost side, the price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has remained stable but declined, and the production cost of calcium carbide has decreased, further opening up downward space.
Prediction of low-level operation in the calcium carbide market in May. As of the end of April, the price of calcium carbide has fallen to near the cost line of some enterprises, with a slowing down trend and a tendency to stabilize, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Based on supply and demand as well as cost factors, the calcium carbide market will mainly operate at a low level in May. In the short term, in early May, the main production areas of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi entered a period of power and equipment maintenance, easing supply pressure. Before the May Day holiday, a small amount of downstream stocking demand and low prices of blue charcoal supported the bottom, which will curb further price declines. However, the PVC market is still weak, inventory has not been fully depleted, and prices are unlikely to rebound significantly, with a narrow range of fluctuation between 2300-2450 yuan/ton. In the medium term, strict control of production capacity and environmental constraints will maintain stable supply, but the weak demand for PVC is difficult to improve quickly. The cost and policy constraints will form a range, and the overall situation will still maintain a low-level oscillation bottoming out trend, making it difficult to see significant fluctuations.