In the first week after the holiday (2.24-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market mainly adjusted within the range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.7%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2000-2300 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply has maintained a stable and increasing trend this week. Ammonia companies have gradually resumed production during pre holiday maintenance, and the production of liquid ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan regions has not decreased. Enterprises mainly offer discounts for shipments, but prices are close to the cost line, and ammonia companies also have the willingness to raise prices. Many ammonia companies have switched to production to reduce losses, and their price performance is weak. Most manufacturers in Shandong region have little price change after the holiday, and enterprises are mainly active in shipping.
On the demand side, during the slow recovery of downstream demand, downstream enterprises gradually started production after the holiday, but most of them purchased on demand and did not purchase in large quantities. The operating rates of urea, monoammonium phosphate, and diammonium phosphate have also increased, but the performance of compound fertilizers is poor. Overall, domestic industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement and sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see attitude still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that overall, the domestic liquid ammonia market supply and demand may continue to compete in March. While the increase in operating rates brings about an increase in supply, demand will also slowly rise.
The expected performance of the supply side has increased, and the faulty ammonia companies still have expectations of resuming work. But the demand side support is expected to continue to strengthen. On the one hand, the traditional peak season for agricultural demand is approaching, and there is an increasing trend in agricultural demand. On the other hand, industrial demand will also increase with downstream resumption of work after the holiday, jointly promoting a positive market supply and demand atmosphere.
Overall, considering that the current price of liquid ammonia has hit rock bottom and there is a demand for repair in the market, driven by marginal improvement in supply and demand, it is expected that there may be room for domestic liquid ammonia prices to rise in March.