Favorable results boost PVC prices to a new high, and Futures and spot prices join hands to enter the era of 9000 yuan (3.15-3.19))

1、 Price trend


Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to the data monitored by the business society (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on March 19, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8725 yuan / ton, up 2.72% from the beginning of the week, 17.54% from the beginning of the month, and 44.85% from the same period last year.


2、 Market analysis


This week, the PVC market rose sharply to a new high. The futures and spot prices both rose to more than 9000 yuan / ton, officially stepping into the era of 9000 yuan, and the focus moved to a high level. This week’s price rise was mainly supported by strong cost, strong external price, favorable supply and demand and other factors, which jointly boosted the PVC market. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was in full swing. The price in most areas of the spot market was increased by about 200-350 yuan / ton, and the price rapidly rose to more than 9000 yuan / ton. The futures price also rose to a new high in the past decade. It can be said that the rising trend was rapid, but the upward momentum continued to be insufficient. In the middle of the week, the rising trend of PVC slowed down, and the fluctuation was adjusted.


At present, the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen by more than 40% since March, and the price is more than 5000 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Moreover, the supply of PVC is tight. Some PVC enterprises reduce the load to ease the pressure of cost. With the superposition of device maintenance, the on-site supply is declining, which is good for PVC upward. Meanwhile, the international supply gap is still in place, and the PVC export is better. The latest quotation adjustment of Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd In addition, the downstream products industry is gradually recovering, continuing to maintain the just needed procurement, with general enthusiasm for high price PVC procurement, and some small and medium-sized enterprises may have cost inversion phenomenon. However, as the market gradually enters the peak season, the demand side support is expected to increase. On the whole, PVC fundamentals are good, plus superposition, short-term correction is also a digestion stage after the rise, the price trend is still strong.


Spot, 19 domestic pvc5 calcium carbide mainstream quotation range in 8800-9050 yuan / ton around. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is 8750-8950 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in North China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in South China is 8850-8950 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Central China is 8850-9000 yuan / ton, and the price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Southwest China is 8800-8950 yuan / ton.


In terms of futures, this week’s futures hit a new high in nearly 10 years, driving the spot trend up to 9280. On the 19th, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 8910 yuan / ton and closed at 8770 yuan / ton. Yesterday’s settlement price was 9085 yuan / ton, down 3.47%. The trading range was 8720-8960 yuan / ton, with 692631 transactions and 303026 positions.


Regional varieties March 19, 2007

Changzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8950-9000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8850-8950 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8850-8980 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8850-8950 yuan / ton


The price of upstream crude oil fell for five consecutive trading days. On Thursday, the price of crude oil fell by more than 7% in a single day. On March 19, the price of WTI crude oil futures market rose. The settlement price of the main contract was 61.44 US dollars per barrel, up 1.38 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract was $64.35/barrel, or $1.32. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday after concerns about the slowdown of economic recovery triggered by a new round of epidemic in Europe suppressed the decline of oil prices. Crude oil was sold off in a large area. At present, the market is gradually returning to rationality, stopping the decline and rebounding. At present, concerns about vaccination and potential side effects in Europe are slowing down, and oil prices turn bullish.


On March 19, the reference price of ethylene was 1164.75, up 5.43% from March 1 (1104.75). At present, crude oil: the uncertainty of crude oil demand has hit the market enthusiasm, crude oil is on a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market, so business community data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.


On March 19, the reference price of calcium carbide was 5116.67, up 43.46% from March 1 (3566.67). The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, with higher prices compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide, and the market demand exceeds supply. The main reason for the rise of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is the double control of energy consumption, power limit and furnace shutdown, and the calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.


3、 Future forecast


PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen sharply and the supply is tight, the cost support is strong, the external market is strong, the maintenance is good, and the downstream demand toughness is still positive, and the fundamentals are still good. At the present stage, it mainly digests the early growth, and it is expected that the PVC trend is still strong, and the price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.


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