1、 Price trend:
According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda is in a weak position. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong was 495 yuan / ton, while that in the weekend was 490 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.01% and 36.77% in the same period last year. On November 15, the commodity index of caustic soda was 70.50, flat with yesterday, 65.92% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), and 8.28% higher than the lowest point of 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
The price of domestic liquid caustic soda is mainly stable for the time being, with strong awareness of price rising in the upstream and weak demand in the downstream. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-530 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu market is 530-600 yuan / ton. The price of flake caustic soda in Shandong market is 1850-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda is 1600-1650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia. Most of the downstream products are purchased on demand. The market atmosphere is not good, and the downstream transaction follow-up is weak. Enterprises mainly discuss and ship. It is expected that Inner Mongolia will stabilize the market temporarily in the near future.
Upstream and demand: on the upstream side, the domestic liquid chlorine market was up and down each other, among which the North China market rose first and then fell during the week, while the East China, central China and Northeast China markets were dominant during the week. Up to now, Shandong market tanker 1100-1200 yuan / ton; Hebei market tanker mainstream transaction 1100-1200 yuan / ton. With the restart of Huatai plant at the weekend, the price of liquid chlorine dropped to about 1100. It is expected that the price of liquid chlorine will return rationally in the future. On the downstream side, the order price of alumina delivered to alumina plant in Xiaoyi area of Shanxi Province in November was increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with that in October. However, in recent years, the overall shipment of caustic soda is not good, there are new devices to increase the supply of caustic soda, and the price of caustic soda is weak.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week (11.9-11.13) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (3.05%), PVC (1.85%) and hydrochloric acid (0.81%); the main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 1.01%) and light soda ash (- 0.89%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.76%.
Business agency analysts believe that the downstream purchase demand of 11 caustic soda products is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda sorting will be weak, and the specific demand of downstream market.