1、 Price trend
According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 24 was 4866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the beginning of the month, 0.66% on a month on month basis, 9.03% lower than the beginning of the year, and 10.98% lower than the same period last year.
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2、 Market analysis
In September, the phosphoric acid market broke the calm and went up steadily. This month’s rise was mainly due to the tight spot price of raw material yellow phosphorus, which was transmitted to the phosphoric acid market. In the first half of the month, the phosphoric acid market was relatively calm. Under the off-season, the demand was relatively stable, and the actual trading atmosphere was slightly light. In the face of upward pressure on costs, the phosphoric acid market was cautious and wait-and-see situation, and some sporadic small rises were explored. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to rise, and the enthusiasm continued to increase. Superimposed on the approaching holiday, the downstream started the pre holiday stock mode. The phosphoric acid market was boosted by this, and the price of phosphoric acid increased slightly. Some enterprises also kept a steady wait-and-see market.
At present, the downstream replenishment has increased compared with the previous period, the manufacturers’ delivery pressure is not great, the trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the southwest region is in a smooth flow with positive adjustment, but the demand is not in large volume, and the rising space is limited. Take KANGLONG, Sichuan Province as an example, the price at the beginning of the month is 4550 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 4600 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan, which is relatively stable in other regions. Near the end of the month, the delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises before the festival is mostly full, a small amount of terminal replenishment, and the market is expected to maintain stable operation before the festival.
According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 24, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4870 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, and the transaction was stable; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was 4800-4850 yuan The price of Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price of Jiangsu is about 4450-4500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. Prices around the country remained stable and wait-and-see, with the focus moving up slightly.
Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)
Phosphoric acid content: 85% in East China
Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China
Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China
On September 24, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 87.19, up 0.12 points compared with yesterday, 17.94% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 12.36% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)
The price of yellow phosphorus in the upper reaches has increased steadily recently. Manufacturers mainly issued early orders, yellow phosphorus spot tight, traders wait-and-see mood is obvious, high price transaction limited. However, a small number of downstream enterprises that did not prepare goods in time also have the possibility of taking goods at high prices. Forecast: in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus is mainly high.
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At present, China’s phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, with insufficient downstream purchasing power, less support for phosphate rock, and lack of large single support in the field. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term demand side of phosphate ore market will not improve significantly. In late September, the overall phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, the upward momentum is slightly weak, and the overall market fluctuation is limited.
Sulfuric acid, in late September, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong area or a small shock rise. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.
The autumn sales of ammonium phosphate and monoammonium in the lower reaches have basically come to an end, and the winter storage policy has not yet been issued. It is expected that monoammonium finishing will be mainly operated in the short term. At present, the domestic demand for diammonium is acceptable, but the new orders are few. The export market is good and the price is always strong. The operation of diammonium is expected to be stable in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society believes that, near the end of the month, the delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises before the festival is mostly full, and a small amount of replenishment at the terminal, and the market before the festival is expected to maintain stable operation.
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