1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market trend is stable. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3370 yuan / ton, up 0.3% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

The price trend of toluene is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. As of the end of this week, the port inventory in East China was about 60000 tons, falling to the lowest level since the middle of March, but it is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market supply is still surplus, but the demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream shows signs of improvement, the demand for toluene is slightly improved, the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the overall supply and demand situation tends to be stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3450 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, for crude oil, moderate fuel demand at the end of the summer led investors to be cautious about crude oil prices, adding to the stock market crash later this week, resulting in the largest weekly decline in WTI crude oil and distribution since June. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $3.665/barrel to close at $41.21/barrel, down 8.17% month on month. Analysts and traders were bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, TDI continued to rise slightly this week, and the market quotation continued to rise. According to market news, the listing price of Wanhua chemical in September increased by 2000 yuan / ton to 19000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a small upward trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 536.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 554.5 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling wells, EIA and API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the fluctuation of US dollar index and stock market, and the impact of Sino US economic and trade situation on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will usher in an adjustment trend next week.