1、 Price trend
The atmosphere of domestic BDO market continues to be depressed. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of May 15, the average price of domestic BDO market was 8700 yuan / ton, with a decline of 9.38% on a month on month basis and 3.87% on a year-on-year basis.
2、 Market analysis
Product: the focus of domestic BDO market continued to decline this week. At present, there is no sign of improvement in terminal demand, which continues to languish. The start-up of downstream industries is low, including 5-60% of PTMEG load, and about 15 days of shutdown and maintenance planned by Xiaoxing in the middle of the month; 3-40% of PBT load; PU industry has entered the off-season, and the start-up has declined. The consumption of BDO in the downstream is limited and the buyer’s price is obviously depressed. Crane coal plans to restart a set of equipment next week, and Xinye plans to restart in early June. The supply of goods in the market may increase, which is a negative market mentality. Under the inventory pressure, some manufacturers actively make profits to promote sales, low-cost goods are frequently available, and the center of gravity has shifted down many times. An industry conference will be held on the 16th, or more news will be released, and the weak of the industry will wait and see.
|Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)|
In terms of devices, the restart time of Dongyuan, Ronghe and Ronghe is uncertain this week; crane coal plans to restart a set of devices next week; MEC load 50%; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device operates normally, The restart time of other units is to be determined; Tunhe phase I will be 50% and phase II will be shut down; Xinye will be shut down on the evening of March 25 to replace the catalyst, and it is planned to be restarted in early June; Sinopec’s load will be reduced to about 50%; black cat’s load will be about 50%; Kaixiang one set of units will operate stably. The overall market operating rate this week was about 44.3%, which was flat compared with last week. (the domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking).
Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol market has been consolidated this week, with different regions falling and rising. Ningxia Baofeng phase II 2.2 million tons / year methanol plant is put into operation as scheduled. Although Shenhua Ningmei has methanol from outside, it can not offset the gap brought by Baofeng’s production. Under the negative demand, the delivery atmosphere in Northwest China is general. The firm price of factories in Inner Mongolia rose to 1480-1500 yuan / ton of ex warehouse spot exchange, and the negotiation was light; the low-end transaction in Northern Shaanxi fell to 1350 yuan / ton of ex warehouse spot exchange, and part of the supply flowed into Shandong and Hebei areas; the mainstream price in Guanzhong region was around 1480-1650 yuan / ton, and the downstream market withdrew in fear of falling Wait and see, the factory is mainly responsible for long-term customers; there is still little pressure on the factory to be shipped in Ningxia. This week, the main transaction volume will rise to 1450 yuan / ton of ex warehouse spot exchange, and the goods from Xinjiang and Qinghai will be delivered to Ningxia by reference to 1480 yuan / ton including tax.
Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market began to callback from the low level. The ex factory price in Wuhai region was increased by 100-150 yuan / ton this week, and the ex factory price in Wuhai region was 2450-2480 yuan / ton. At present, the market is in short supply, the supply of goods is tight, and the ex factory price rises continuously. The downstream ex factory price has increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream truck to be unloaded is low and continues to decline, and the procurement is active. Since the 15th Ordos PVC for almost a month off, carbide normal production and export, market supply increased, North China, East China purchase price stable wait-and-see. Affected by the rising price of calcium carbide in the near future, some of the calcium carbide devices that were shut down in the early stage have been resumed production. It is expected that the overall market supply will increase next week to ease the pressure of market demand. The factory price is mainly consolidated, the downstream is affected by the regional uneven arrival, and some purchase prices are increased.
Downstream demand: PBT: Kaixiang, Meiyuan, Shandong weijiao and Kanghui are in parking; Yizheng Chemical fiber load is about 80%; Wuxi Xingsheng load is about 3-40%; Tunhe unit current load is 50%; Changshu Changchun load is 50%. The load of Meizhou Bay is 60%. The load of BDO supporting PTMEG is about 60%. BDO plant: Xiaoxing has a load of about 40%, and the maintenance is delayed to the middle of May, which is expected to last for 15 days; Sanlong has low negative operation. Other downstream: GBL industry: 50% long-term information load; 3-40% Pu slurry load; about 40% TPU load at present.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the cost support is general, and the downstream demand is weak; crane coal storage is expected to restart, and the supply of goods may increase. At the same time, the downstream PTMEG plant Xiaoxing plans to maintain in the middle of the month, with the demand or reduction, and the supply and demand game continues. The market is surrounded by many negative factors, and the industry is lack of confidence in the future; the main downstream market is mostly under counter pressure, and the actual single trading atmosphere is light and the focus is weak. Before BDO’s social inventory was effectively digested, BDO analysts of business cooperatives predicted that the domestic BDO market continued to decline in a short time, focusing on the release of industry news and the main downstream construction.