1、 Price trend
This week (4.20-26), the domestic polysilicon market continued to decline, and the prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees. The main reason is that manufacturers have successively lowered their production prices, and the prices of imported goods have also gradually declined, which is the demand side problem. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand has further shrunk, and the export orders of components have significantly shrunk, so this week’s market price The price of new orders in the market has dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material decline is 7.19%. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for five consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon has fallen to a historical low.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of market supply, at present, the polysilicon supply performance is sufficient, the manufacturer’s devices are partially shut down, and the overall domestic operation rate remains at 80-90%. As of April 26, there are only two polysilicon manufacturers in China for maintenance or load reduction production. The domestic production maintains a high operation rate, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is higher than ever before. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, polysilicon import price continued to decline this week, down 2000-3000 yuan / ton compared with last week, continuing to impact the domestic market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage. Most enterprises sign orders until May, and some enterprises sign orders in May. In addition, the market transportation pressure is not great, but affected by the increase of transportation cost, the delivery speed of manufacturers decreases. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 45000-49000 yuan / ton.
From the perspective of demand, terminal demand is sluggish, especially external demand continues to decline, global terminal installation is blocked, overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operating rate of domestic component manufacturers gradually reduced, thus transferred to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain. The new production capacity of single crystal can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. Currently, there is no The release of new capacity also eased the pressure on the supply side to some extent. On the other hand, the demand for polycrystals is also slightly stable due to the gradual recovery of the operating rate of downstream single crystal enterprises currently in production, but the export of terminal components is still the biggest problem restricting the entire silicon industry chain.
3、 Future prospects
In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure of polysilicon is becoming more and more prominent at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprises overhauling, the supply pressure will be relieved. It is estimated that at the end of April, there will be 4 domestic enterprises of 10000 tons for routine maintenance, and there will be 1 enterprise planned to overhauling in May, with the overhaul capacity exceeding 60000 tons. The demand side problem is expected to remain unsolved in the short term, mainly because the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled. With the increase of overseas anti-dumping efforts on China’s photovoltaic products, the export may shrink significantly in the future, so it is expected that polysilicon market will maintain a weak trend in the near future.