1、 Price trend:
On April 10, crude benzene commodity index was 36.75, which was the same as yesterday, 72.13% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 20.33% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Market analysis:
Domestic market: the OPEC + meeting can reach an agreement on crude oil production reduction. The boost of confidence in the market has driven Sinopec’s price of pure benzene up three times in the week, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene on the outside has also rebounded significantly. The bidding price of crude benzene rose this week, and the price in Shandong region rose to around 2500 yuan / ton by Friday. However, in the near future, the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been intensively overhauled, with a low operating rate of about 40%. The demand for crude benzene is less supported. In terms of terminal demand, the price of styrene increases with the increase, but the overall operating rate has not been greatly improved, which is difficult to support crude benzene
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 28 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 13 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 14.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are pure benzene (21.34%), crude benzene (20.34%) and acetone (15.79%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 11.31%), butadiene (- 10.19%) and aniline (- 5.63%). This week’s average was up or down 1.05%.
3、 Trend Forecast:
The business community expects that the oil price will remain low and volatile in the near future. In the medium and long term, it depends on the development of international events. In the context of the contraction of economic activities in Europe and the United States, it is difficult for the oil market to be fundamentally positive. In terms of pure benzene, the external market continued to rise, with the expectation that the future market of pure benzene would be raised, the recent start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively low, and the downstream demand did not rise significantly. It is expected that the future market or the price driven by the industrial chain will rise, but it is difficult to have a large increase.