Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market is in a deadlock. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI is 13650 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 1360yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 0.37% in the week, a rise of 10.12% annually, and a decrease of 32.95% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the aggregate MDI market is deadlocked. At the beginning of this week, the guided price of Cox founder remained stable, temporarily holding the people’s mind. However, under the overall economic environment and inventory pressures, middlemen frequently deliver goods at low prices, and market negotiations dominate. However, the downstream is still not in a high mood to buy, half-push and half-down is mostly small single-handed goods. For several consecutive days this week, despite the fact that the factory controls goods in the market, the market price is still inevitably falling. As Wanhua announced the settlement in August ahead of schedule, Wanhua distributors are more cautious in delivering goods, resulting in a widening price gap between Shanghai and Wanhua sources. In a short time, the aggregated MDI market is still dominated by supply and demand game, and the transaction has not improved significantly. In addition, there is no strong price support. Even though external speculation factors continue, the price is still difficult to improve.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.9), the aggregate MDI market in South China was weak. With the downstream sustained demand weakening, the focus of market negotiations slowly declined, the confidence of future market declined, just need to buy gas is not strong, continue to watch factory price guidelines, traders cautiously follow the market. The aggregate MDI market in North China has a narrow downward trend. The persistent downstream buying Depression led to a slow decline in MDI factory prices, traders cautiously followed the decline, lack of confidence in the future, and weak short-term market consolidation. The aggregate MDI market in East China is weaker. Main factories offer downward, downstream purchasing gas continued to shrink, business confidence in the future declined, the buying power is insufficient, short-term market weak operation.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week’s pure benzene market continued to weaken, week by Sino-US trade talks expected not optimistic, RMB depreciation and other Macro-negative news, commodities fell as a whole, pure benzene pressure weakened. The sharp drop in crude oil also led to the weakening of the outer plate of pure benzene. As a result, the price of pure benzene has been declining since the beginning of the week. Downstream users wait for Sinopec to cut prices, wait and see, market turnover is weak. At the beginning of the week, there were still sporadic transactions of 5000 yuan/ton, but then driven by the low-price supply in Shandong Province, the market buying gravity dropped to 4900-4950 yuan/ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market showed a trend of declining in the north and rising in the south. In terms of raw materials, crude oil and pure benzene continued to fall, and pure benzene market was pessimistic. In addition, the overall supply is sufficient, downstream prices are low, and the price of pure benzene is weak. The average tender price in Jinling, Shandong Province, fell by about 223 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost advantage was weak. On the downstream side, due to poor terminal demand dragging down the market, coupled with the impact of environmental inspection, resulting in low downstream start-up rate of aniline such as auxiliaries and dyes, and limited consumption of aniline. Despite the large price difference between Shanxi and Shandong, under the condition of weak cost and demand, aniline enterprises in North China have poor shipments and high inventories, so they have to reduce prices to promote shipment. However, due to the fact that the spot owner prepares the shipment to deliver the contract within a week, there is a small amount of spot supply to the old customers, and there is no pressure to ship, so the price of East China enterprises has moved up narrowly, forming a trend of north-down and south-up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: The aggregated MDI market is still dominated by supply and demand game in a short time, and the transaction has not improved significantly, coupled with no strong price support, even if external speculation factors continue, the market stalemate is still difficult to change. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price stabilization, weak consolidation, rise and fall dilemma.