Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid Market shocked and adjusted in June. At the beginning of June, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2576 yuan/ton. At the end of June, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China rose to about 2716 yuan/ton. The price of acetic acid rose by 5.43%, with the highest price of 2883 yuan/ton in a month. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2350-2450/ton; in Shandong, 2600-2750 yuan/ton; in Hebei, 2600-2650 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, 2200 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, 2600-2700 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, 2750-2850 yuan/ton; and in South China, 2700-2800 yuan/ton./ About a ton, the overall decline was 46.91% over the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: At the beginning of June, affected by the overhaul of some acetic acid enterprises in East China, the overall market start-up rate was low, the spot supply continued to be tight, the acetic acid enterprises increased their quotations substantially, the enterprises in North China had many long single shipments and low inventory, the supply of enterprises was stable, the price of acetic acid was stable and strong; the Northwest China was affected by continuous vacation and other factors. The price of acetic acid in central China is continuously rising because of the influence of the overall market atmosphere. After mid-month, maintenance enterprises resumed production, and domestic demand in the downstream market was poor. The price of acetic acid began to fall as a whole. In terms of start-up, the industry’s start-up rate is relatively low. The overall start-up rate fluctuates between 60% and 75% within a month. Huayi, Thorpe and Yima installations have been repaired one after another, and production has resumed. Henan Longyu plans to be repaired in mid-July or about January.

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the contradiction between supply and demand in domestic methanol market is obvious. The price fluctuation in the month is down. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2334 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it is 2180 yuan/ton. The price is down by 6.60%, 19.93% compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA spot market is short of circulation. Prices in June showed a sharp rebound after shock adjustment. At the end of the month, the average market price was 6366 yuan/ton, up 11.34% from the beginning of the month and 8.45% from the same period last year.

International: North America acetic acid market supply is tight, fluctuating in the month, currently about 415 U.S. dollars per ton; Asian acetic acid market is affected by the overhaul of enterprises in China, the overall supply is tight, acetic acid prices have risen sharply, but the overall downstream demand is still soft, the current quotation is 340-405 U.S. dollars per ton; European acetic acid market is affected by raw material methanol. Affected, the month is stable, moderate and soft, the current quotation is about $510 per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic acetic acid market maintenance enterprises are gradually returning to normal, except Longyu, other enterprises have no maintenance plan and Dalian Hengli will soon export, the overall spot supply is abundant; July as the traditional off-season of the acetic acid market, downstream market purchases are light and export negotiations are cautious, the overall demand has no obvious signs of improvement; According to the analysis of social acetic acid data, the price of acetic acid is close to the cost line. Enterprises will guarantee the price of acetic acid while maintaining profits, and the domestic acetic acid market will be stable and weak in the near future.