February coincides with the Spring Festival, before the festival, the domestic phenol market was consolidated horizontally. In the first working day after the festival, Lihua Yiweiyuan first rose 100 yuan/ton. Market confidence was boosted. After the festival, the market opened steadily, releasing a bullish signal to the market after the festival. East China is up 500 yuan/ton after the festival and up to 9000 yuan/ton at present. According to the monitoring data of business associations, phenol petrochemical plants in East China listed 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of January, and up to 800 yuan/ton at the present time, the overall increase is 3.53%.
II. Analytical Review
Products: Affected by the first increase of 100 yuan/ton of Li Huayi after the festival, the market confidence increased, and the Spring Festival holiday was affected by the Middle East equipment maintenance. The spot supply in India market was tight, the price soared rapidly. According to the need for Chinese importers to take the opportunity to export operations, traders in East China took this opportunity to push up, in terms of equipment, Yangzhou Shiyou planned to stop and repair for one month, to the city. The field is more confidence. However, the latter half of February did not meet the expectation, and the rising trend was relatively stable. The main reasons are as follows: the Middle East device restart, the supply pressure in India market will gradually ease, the port stock after the festival is relatively high, and the downstream construction has not yet been released, the procurement increase is not obvious, and the follow-up of the whole downstream is limited. After the festival, the domestic phenol manufacturer’s hanging plate in East China rose 300 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China offered 9400 yuan/ton.
Up to now, the market offers are as follows: the mainstream reference offer in East China is 9000 yuan/ton, the Yanshan area is 8900 yuan/ton, the Shandong area is 9000 yuan/ton, the Henan area is 9000 yuan/ton, and the South China area is 9400 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: In terms of supply and demand, in 2019, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 650,000 tons/year phenol-ketone plant in Zhoushan will be put on the market. China’s phenol production capacity will exceed 3 million tons. Due to the steady development of downstream bisphenol A and cyclohexanone in recent years, the negative impact of new capacity release on the market will be relatively limited. With a large number of new projects of bisphenol A being put into operation, the consumption structure of phenol in China has changed fundamentally and is gradually in line with international standards. At present, bisphenol A has surpassed phenol formaldehyde resin to become the largest consumption area of phenol, accounting for about 46%, followed by phenol formaldehyde resin with 42%. If the third phase expansion project of Changchun Chemical Industry and the new bisphenol A project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are put into operation smoothly in 2019, the total production capacity of bisphenol A will exceed 1.8 million tons/year. Two sets of 150,000 tons/year phenol-to-cyclohexanone units in Weiming Petrochemical Company of Jiangsu Province are expected to be mass-produced in May this year, when domestic production capacity of phenol-to-cyclohexanone will be greatly increased.
Upstream and downstream, pure benzene: Driven by crude oil and the impact of the appreciation of the people, the outer price is higher than domestic pure benzene, Sinopec or there is an upward expectation. At present, the listed price of Sinopec is implemented at 4950 yuan/ton, and the current market is negotiating at 5000 yuan/ton. Propylene: Up to now, the main stream of Shandong Province is 7000-7100 yuan/ton. The difference between supply and demand has a great impact on the market, which directly leads to a sustained decline in prices. The difference between supply and demand in the market is too large to support it well. It is difficult to reverse the market situation. The stock and repair plans of some enterprises, such as Haiyue, Huaxing, Changyi and Wanhua, will be reduced by then. Travel as a whole will gradually improve, and new opportunities will inevitably emerge. Downstream bisphenol A, cyclohexanone and other products are gradually restoring, and downstream capacity is expected to increase.
3. Future Market Forecast
In summary, in March, the plant overhaul, and the overhaul manufacturers are likely to increase, downstream start-up is gradually rising, the overall positive more, business community phenol analysts believe that the phenol market confidence has increased, the market boost is obvious, and in good supply and demand, petrochemical manufacturers adjustment is expected to continue to follow up, phenol Market in March is expected to be available, the mainstream market in East China is expected to offer about 9,400-9,600 yuan/ton.