1、 Price trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market is stagnant. As of December 27, the price of butadiene was 8345 yuan / ton, down 3.59% on a month on month basis and 13.40% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in this cycle, the domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated, and the market trend is slightly stagnant. In the week, Liaotong chemical suspended online export, and Fushun Petrochemical only sold 240 tons of goods on Thursday. The tightening supply of goods in Northeast China has supported the mentality of some businesses. But Jiutai, Huayu and other manufacturers normally ship goods, and the slightly high price node delivery situation is not good, resulting in a cautious market atmosphere. East China is also temporarily supported by the supply side news, but the market is full of low price news. The market trend continues to be weak in the week, and sporadic high price offers lack of real single support. In the later part of this week, Fushun’s supply of goods was restarted for export, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plant had a short-term commissioning plan, which led to the market’s return to weakness due to market uncertainty.

In terms of plant dynamics, Sinopec East China butadiene price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton in a week, and 8500 yuan / ton was implemented since 23rd; Liaotong chemical butadiene continued to suspend on-line export; Fushun Petrochemical’s export volume of goods sources was 7800-7860 yuan / ton, and the total volume of transactions in a week was 240 tons; Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, with a quotation of 7600 yuan / ton, stable compared with the same period last week The 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of sippon Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on December 16 and restarted on December 26, with an offer of 8900 yuan / T; the 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Nanjing Chengzhi was shut down on the evening of December 22 and restarted on the afternoon of December 25, with a supply contract; according to market news, the 200000 t / a new butadiene extraction unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is planned to be put into operation this weekend, please continue to pay attention to the details.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: in this cycle, the factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber sales companies has been falling, with the main decline of 200 yuan / ton, only PetroChina South China and Sinopec East China sales companies haven’t kept pace. As of the receipt of the draft, the main factory supply price of domestic styrene butadiene 1502 is 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In this cycle, the operating rate of domestic styrene butadiene plant is around 5.80% this week; Qilu, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua, Shenhua, Weitai and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plant are all in normal operation, and two lines of operation are resumed near Yangzi Petrochemical styrene butadiene plant on the 23rd; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plant continue to stop.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company fell by 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous cycle; as of the receipt of the manuscript, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales company was around 10800 yuan / ton; Sinopec East China and PetroChina South China sales company did not make any adjustment. In this cycle, the operation rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is around 60%, the load of Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is not full, other mainstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants in China keep normal operation, and the overall operation rate of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is less than that of the previous cycle.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the operation of sporadic devices is not good, and there is a bottom support for the market just in need of bargain hunting. On the negative side, the supply side of the market is relatively abundant, cargo continues to arrive at the port to supplement, and the downstream market trend of the industrial chain is weak. The supply side of the previous cycle is temporarily supported by downstream demand, which makes it difficult to boost the butadiene market. As the supply side support weakens, the market supply of the next cycle may be gradually relaxed. In addition, with the arrival of ships and the trial run plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical plant, it is difficult to find good news in the short-term butadiene market. Butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be extended To continue the weak situation, it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand fundamentals and transaction guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of monoammonium phosphate was not good in 2019, and the price continued to fall in the second half of the year. On January 1, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2266 yuan / ton, on December 23, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1916 yuan / ton, and the price fell 15.44% in the year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first quarter, the price fell by 4.41%: according to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2266 yuan / ton on January 1, 2166 yuan / ton on March 31, and the price fell by 4.41% in the quarter. In the first quarter, the enterprise executed the preliminary order, and the market price was about 2100-2300 yuan / ton. Although the market price does not fluctuate greatly, the purchase demand of downstream customers is not high, the market shows a weak trend, and new orders are slightly less traded.

In the second quarter, the price rose by 0.77%: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2166 yuan / ton on April 1, 2183 yuan / ton on June 30, and the price rose by 0.77% in the quarter. In the second quarter, the market price was about 2000-2200 yuan / ton. The enterprise is still in the implementation of early orders, and the purchase demand of downstream customers is still flat. Most enterprises operate normally, receive orders and deliver goods normally.

In the third quarter, the price fell by 5.34%: according to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2183 yuan / ton on July 1, 2066 yuan / ton on September 30, and the price fell by 5.34% in the quarter. The market price in the third quarter is about 1900-2200 yuan / ton. The market was weak and prices continued to fall. Due to the lack of downstream follow-up, the market price of raw sulfur has fallen sharply, so the market is difficult to improve. The downstream compound fertilizer market is light and the enterprise has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

In the fourth quarter, the price fell by 7.26%: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2066 yuan / ton on October 1, 1916 yuan / ton on December 23, and the price fell by 7.26% in the quarter. The market price in the fourth quarter is about 1800-2100 yuan / ton. The market continues to be low. In some enterprises, the price of raw materials has fallen due to the maintenance of devices, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand side has not improved, and the winter storage market is worrying. There is no favorable policy after the conference.

3、 Analysis of industrial chain

Industrial chain: in 2019, the atmosphere of domestic sulfur market is cold, and the price is also falling all the way. The market demand is sluggish and the stock consumption in Hong Kong is slow. The atmosphere of market wait-and-see is strong, the atmosphere of negotiation is cold, and the attitude of industry bearish is obvious. In 2019, phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, weak market demand, weak on-site trading, sporadic supply of orders from old customers by enterprises, mainly digestion of inventory, scarce new orders, and high pressure on mine inventory. In the year, prices fluctuated slightly and remained stable. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises for monoammonium phosphate is reduced, and they usually take the goods according to the demand, so the market of the whole phosphate fertilizer market is bleak.

3、 Summary and forecast

According to the analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, 2019 is a difficult year for monoammonium phosphate enterprises. The market is in a depression, raw material prices fall, downstream demand is not strong, and the whole phosphate fertilizer market is facing many difficulties. The weak market continues to the end of the year. It is predicted that monoammonium phosphate will run smoothly in the short term, but it will not improve before this year.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11333 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11266 yuan / ton, down 0.59%.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon continues to fluctuate and decline. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7200-12000 yuan / ton; the price of domestic activated carbon is mainly to maintain stability, and the factory basically purchases on demand to maintain normal production.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. Downstream electric power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order, the market for purchasing activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and downstream factories purchase cautiously, unwilling to accept orders in a hurry, and there are not many firm deals.

Forecast: there is no sign of improvement in the downstream of activated carbon. In addition to maintaining the necessary procurement, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is difficult to improve. It is expected that the short-term activated carbon market will not improve greatly, and the overall market will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the market of domestic liquid ammonia tends to be stable in the middle and late ten days, with a slight decline in some areas. In the week of 20th, the price of liquid ammonia didn’t change much. Most of the manufacturers maintained the price range of last week, while most of the manufacturers still reported stable in the weekend. Some of them went down 50 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, were stable, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton, and the price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, some of them are stable The ammonia quantity is in excess, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the pressure of enterprises’ shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable in price, and the main quotation in Shandong Province is 2950-3050 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in North China is mainly stable, and there is plenty of ammonia in the region. At present, the supply pressure has not increased significantly. The lack of demand is still a potential factor for the increase of ammonia. In the short term, the shipping pressure may continue to increase. There are many downriver stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2970 yuan / ton.

The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei region has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, has led to weak demand in the downstream. There are many enterprises accumulating inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Over the weekend, the central China region weakened slightly, and the delivery pressure in Hubei region was obvious. Part of Henan region was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan is 3000 yuan / ton up and down.

In the future, the business community believes that the weak market tends to stabilize in the short term, which is mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions, especially the environmental protection pressure is large, and the downstream operating rate is further reduced. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

I. price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 18855 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 18250 yuan / ton, with a slight drop of 1.62% in the week.

II. Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price fell slightly this week. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, market procurement is not warm. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-18100 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market continues to be consolidated and operated. The market is still weak. Many mining enterprises have limited production and quoted prices. The prices were not adjusted years ago. A small part of the mine prices fluctuated slightly by 30%. The price of grade phosphorus ore was reduced by 10-40 yuan / ton. The market as a whole is still running smoothly. After the price of coke rose by 50 yuan / ton in the second round, the supply of domestic spot market of coke declined due to environmental protection, production restriction, capacity reduction and other factors, and the market mentality was optimistic. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 2030 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2270 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid market is mainly for finishing and operation. At present, the hot process phosphoric acid is generally shipped, and the wet process is relatively good. The downstream starts the year-end stock stage. Phosphoric acid market as a whole was flat, with prices down slightly.

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of business and social chemical branch, the price of yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week, the overall market of yellow phosphorus was light, and the downstream demand was insufficient, so it was difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the weak operation of yellow phosphorus price will be the main factor.

I. Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market is stable this week. The weekend price is 2883.33 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 2883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 20.64%. Recently, fluorite price is mainly volatile.

II. Market analysis

Product: the price trend of fluorite in China has been fluctuating this week. Recently, the supply of fluorite in China has decreased. However, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has not improved significantly. The price of fluorite has been fluctuating, and the price has not changed much. The price of fluorite in the fluorite market is average. The downstream is purchased on demand. The spot supply of fluorite in the market is normal, and the price trend of fluorite in the market is stable 。 By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the trend of fluorite price was stable temporarily.

Industry chain: the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite rose this week. As of the end of the week, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10240 yuan / ton, and the overall price of hydrofluoric acid rose by 1.89% this week. The rise of the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was a good factor in the fluorite market, and the price of domestic fluorite market remained volatile. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 14500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price has slightly increased. The downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of fluorite market is mainly stable.

Industry: this week, the fluorite industry started to operate generally, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the spot supply of fluorite products fell, and the market price of fluorite remained volatile.

III. future forecast

In the future, the installation of domestic fluorite manufacturers has declined recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry has risen slightly, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry has improved. Chen Ling, an analyst of fluorite in the business agency, thinks that the price of fluorite may rise slightly in the later stage, and the price may be around 2900 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China at the weekend was 6375.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price fell 7.94% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash fluctuated and consolidated. The price consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride has no supporting effect on the price of potash. The market of potash is stable with little fluctuation. At the same time, the demand side is weak, and the price increase is restrained. The price adjustment range is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchase is general, and the quotation is mainly consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in December, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that the trading atmosphere of potash market is cold and difficult to close. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 29, the comprehensive price of BPA was 9600.00 yuan / ton, which was just needed to be purchased in the downstream, with general volume and low negotiation focus.

II. Cause analysis

In terms of products: the domestic bisphenol a market today has seen a decrease in low prices, a flat trading atmosphere at the end of the month, no pressure on the inventory of various manufacturers, a firm offer, no increase in market demand, and a low overall turnover rate.

III. future forecast

Bisphenol A analysts think: in the short term, bisphenol a market will be reorganized and operated.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOP fell in shock this week, while the overall plasticizer DOP fell slightly. As of November 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, down 16.66 yuan / ton, or 0.23%, compared with 7383.33 yuan / ton in the weekend (November 24), down 18.82% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name ﹣ port ﹣ 11.29 price ﹣ 11.22 price ﹣ price type ﹣ unit

DOP China 930.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1150.00 CFR USD / ton

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, the price of DOP external market rose this week, and DOP market was good. This week, the price of DOP in China is 930 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton; the price of DOP in Southeast Asia is 1150 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, the price of plasticizer DOP is up, the domestic plasticizer market is good.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride remained stable, the price of octanol rose slightly, and the price of octanol rose by 0.72%; the overall cost of DOP remained stable, which weakened the market advantage of DOP. The price of o-phthalic anhydride remained stable, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, and the overall price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell, which was bad for DOP market. In the future, the upward momentum of DOP market weakened, the downward pressure increased, and DOP market fell.

In terms of downstream demand, PVC market surged 3.26% this week, with limited demand in the downstream of DOP, but the market recovered. In the future, DOP market is good, but due to the small growth of PVC, the momentum of DOP is general.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the price of raw material isooctanol of plasticizer DOP this week was basically stable, the price of phthalic anhydride of o-phthalic acid remained stable, the price of phthalic anhydride of naphthalene phthalic acid fell, the overall cost of DOP fell, and the market advantage of DOP weakened and the negative increased. On the downstream side, PVC prices kept rising this week. The demand for DOP downstream was limited but the market was favorable. The DOP market had an upward momentum but the momentum was weakened and the downward pressure increased. In general, plasticizer DOP market downward pressure increases, DOP demand is limited, plasticizer DOP market has upward momentum but the momentum is weakened, and it is expected that the future DOP market will be weak and stable.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data on the business club’s list, the end of the month fell slightly after the shock rise of pure benzene flattened. On October 31, the listing price of pure benzene was 5000-5400 yuan / ton, and on November 30, the listing price of pure benzene was 5250-5351 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76% compared with the end of last month.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: this month’s crude oil overall shows a trend of shock rise. WTI oil price is 7.25% higher than last month, Brent oil price is 6.04% higher than last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced.

2. Product: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

3. Downstream: this month, the downstream styrene fell in shock, down 1.98% month on month. This month, the aniline plant recovered its load, the supply increased, and the price fell, down 19.11% month on month. The downstream products of pure benzene generally have low profits, such as caprolactam, styrene and other products have lost money, which is bad for pure benzene.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the international oil price will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the downside risk is large. There are signs at the end of the month that OPEC and other oil producers are reluctant to cut production further at the December meeting, and oil prices are likely to decline.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: at present, the weak downstream demand of domestic pure benzene will still restrict the market recovery.

Comprehensive consideration, it is predicted that the short-term pure benzene market is difficult to return to temperature, and the weak operation is the main one. But the stock up before the Spring Festival will form a good support for the market.