According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of February 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 403 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price in early February (February 1). Compared with the price in early January (reference average price on January 1 was 396 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 7 yuan / ton, or 1.68%.

With the Spring Festival approaching, the domestic phosphorus ore is in stable operation

In February, near the Spring Festival, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole continues to maintain a stable consolidation operation, downstream demand is gradually weakening, downstream users have basically suspended receiving new orders, the market trading atmosphere is cold, the price adjustment before the festival is limited, it is heard that the actual transaction price in Guizhou is slightly low, and enterprises mainly focus on the delivery of early orders and a small amount of shipping.

At present, the phosphorus ore market in the first week of February is weak and stable. As of February 5, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore in Hubei Province is around 370-390 yuan / ton, and the price is basically stable. Guizhou region: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 340-380 yuan / ton nearby; 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton nearby. Guizhou Xinxin group mainly supplies more than 28% quality phosphate rock. At present, the phosphate mine is still in operation. There is a pressure plan during the Spring Festival. The price of 30% phosphate rock is around 380 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: 28% of the price of phosphate rock slab is around 290-320 yuan / ton, and 30% of the price of phosphate rock slab is 340-370 yuan / ton. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate in Guangxi songgan business is around 350 yuan / T; the quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore car plate is around 300 yuan / T.

In terms of downstream and yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to maintain a stable finishing operation, and the downstream orders received before the festival were small. As of February 5, the domestic yellow phosphorus reference price was 16700 yuan / ton, up 0.2% compared with February 1 (16666.67 yuan / ton). Phosphoric acid market is in weak and stable operation before the festival.

New orders in the lower reaches are gradually reduced, and the market of phosphorus ore is mainly stable

With the coming of the new year, downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have suspended receiving orders one after another, and the mines are mainly supplying orders from old customers in the early stage. Phosphorus ore analysts from the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market is mainly stable on the eve of the Spring Festival.

As of February 15, 2021 or as permitted by the contract, Dow Chemical will, on behalf of itself and its applicable consolidated subsidiaries (“Dow”), increase the prices of all grades and packaging types of the following TDI products in North America by US $0.01 per pound: Product Name: voranate.

polyethylene

In 2020, the import volume of HDPE will be 9.1 million tons, an increase of 14% over the previous year; LLDPE will be 6.7 million tons, an increase of 17%; LDPE will be 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 1%; EVA will be 1 million tons, a decrease of 3%. Production in North America and Eastern Europe increased significantly, while supply in the Middle East grew little.

China has recovered rapidly from the pandemic, and by June 2020, the import volume of ethylene polymer has set a new record. In the third quarter, the import volume of ethylene polymer continued to maintain a high level, but slowed down in the fourth quarter. During this period, the import volume usually surged before the decline of manufacturing industry. Due to the Lunar New Year (February 12, 2021). The shortage of containers may lead to a decrease in quantity and a rise in price, with an average price of US $1096 per ton in December.

Despite a substantial increase in China’s total imports, supply from the Middle East grew by only 1% to 9.2 million tons. Imports of polymers from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar decreased, but supply from the UAE increased strongly.

Supply in the Asia Pacific region increased by 7% to 8.2 million tons. Imports from North America (the United States and Canada) increased by 65% to 1.8 million tons. Imports from Eastern Europe (mainly Russia) surged 204% to 1.1 million tons.

polypropylene

In 2020, China’s polypropylene import will increase by 25% to 6.8 million tons.

Imports from the Asia Pacific region increased by 24% to 4.9 million tons; imports from the Middle East increased by 26% to 1.4 million tons, and all other regions. From August to December, the average price soared to $1190 per ton.

China’s largest and fastest-growing import sources include South Korea, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, India, Japan and Malaysia.

Due to the epidemic and the Spring Festival, imports were slow in the first quarter. However, with the epidemic under more control and the increasing demand for PP products at home and abroad, imports reached a record high of 850000 tons in June. Then the output slowed down, stabilized at about 600000 tons per month from August to November, but dropped to 554000 tons in December.

Given the traditionally strong annual import volume since December, at least from December 2016, the annual import volume has been strong since December, as buyers increase production before each lunar new year (February 12, 2021). Rising freight rates, container shortages and slowing demand may be factors to consider.

In January 2021, the domestic tin ingot Market rose after the shock. The average price of the domestic market was 151887.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 170975 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 12.57%.

On January 28, the tin commodity index was 87.09, up 0.01 points from yesterday, down 13.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 103.20% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

After the futures market entered 2021, with the weak rebound of the US dollar index, financial stimulus measures of various countries to accelerate economic recovery and other macro positive factors, Shanghai tin made efforts from the 160000 mark to constantly set a new high, up to now the highest to 174000, a new high since its listing. In terms of inventory, London Metal Exchange (LME) reported 880 metric tons of lungshi’s inventory on the 28th, 25 metric tons less than the previous trading day’s inventory. The current inventory remains at a low level compared with that in recent five years, and lungshi’s de inventory is still expected to increase. The shortage of global tin market further increased, leading the rise of Shanghai tin. According to the latest statistics of the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), there will be a shortage of 16900 tons of tin in the world from January to November 2020.

In terms of ore supply, more than 90% of China’s tin mines depend on Myanmar’s imports. In 2020, affected by the production reduction of Myanmar’s local tin mines, China’s import data is significantly lower than in previous years. In December last year, China imported about 16000 tons of tin concentrate, with a month on month decrease of 7.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.12%. However, December is already the month with more tin concentrate imports in 2020. In 2020, China’s total import of tin concentrate was 158000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.27%. Affected by the public health situation in Myanmar, production and transportation were restricted again in January, and the import volume is expected to continue to decline in January.

In the spot market, with the futures price rising all the way, the domestic spot market price also rose strongly, and has now broken the 170000 mark. At present, there are few sources of goods in circulation in the spot market, and the performance of price increase and discount is strong. As of the end of the month, there are few quoting traders. As of the 29th, the price discount for 2103 contract is about 200-400 yuan / ton for ordinary cloud words and 500-1000 yuan / ton for small brands. In February, the stock preparation before the festival basically ended, the market fear of high sentiment was high, the overall transaction was weak, and there was no market for price.

In the future, the business community believes that the current spot market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and subject to the restrictions of imported tin concentrate, the tight supply of ore end will continue for a period of time in the future. It is expected that the situation of spot market with price but without market before the festival will continue, and Shanghai Tin Company may continue to set a new record in the future.

Relevant data:

From January to November 2020, the world reported refined tin production decreased by 8000 tons compared with the same period last year. China’s apparent demand increased by 17.7% over the same period last year. From January to November 2020, the global demand for tin will be 348000 tons, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year. Japan’s demand is 18800 tons, down 19% from January to November 2019. In November 2020, the global refined tin output is 30900 tons, and the consumption is 33100 tons.

According to the data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of trade, Indonesia’s exports of refined tin totaled 4551.75 tons in November. Indonesia is one of the most important tin exporting countries in the world. Data showed that refined tin exports in November decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, but increased slightly compared with the previous month.

On December 25, the Ministry of industry and information technology approved 669 industry standards, including 104 non-ferrous metal industry standards and 19 rare earth industry standards. It is reported that nine stannum related industry standards will be implemented from April 1, 2021.

Since late January, the bisphenol a market has ignited again and soared to the sky. It has performed very well in the chemical industry sector. First, it soared for three days, with an increase of nearly 30%. After two days of market adjustment under the slight exclusion of the terminal, a small number of shippers made profits and actively shipped. The market was stable and declined. However, this week, the good came again, the market continued to rise. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market offer was 13033 yuan / ton on January 17, 16583 yuan / ton on January 21, up 27.24%. On January 27, the average market offer was 17250 yuan / ton, up 32.35% in total. At present, the supply of goods in the market is limited. With the coming of the new year, the logistics in the downstream is blocked, and the goods in the downstream are still available. The transaction may be high before the year.

Under the situation of running out of ammunition and food, the demand hit again, and the extreme shortage of market supply was the main reason for the re ignition of bisphenol a market. After the end of the surge in the fourth quarter of 2020, the market fell sharply and plummeted. The vast majority of traders actively shipped goods, leading to the extreme shortage of goods in the market. And after the sharp rise and fall, many traders suffered serious losses. From the point of view of mentality, the sharp rise was the aspiration of the cargo holders. With the aggravation of the epidemic situation in the north and approaching the end of the new year, the cargo sources in the hands of the cargo holders actively sold. After a round of selling, the market gradually stabilized. When the purchasing heat of the downstream increased again, the market was seriously tense and the cargo holders were reluctant to sell.

Wind power make up for the fall started the “first shot”, epoxy resin industry is expected to improve again, pulling up bisphenol a market to rise again. It is understood that “Guangdong Energy Bureau recently released a draft for opinions on promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power. The opinions point out that it is necessary to expand the installed capacity, that is, 4gw offshore wind power will be put into operation by the end of 2021, 15gw by the end of 2025, that is, large-scale production of more than 8mW offshore wind power, and strive to achieve parity by the end of 2024. Guangdong Province decided to relay local subsidies: the subsidy scale is 4.5gw; the time limit is 2022 and 2023; the subsidy scale in 2022 is not more than 2.1gw, and the subsidy intensity is 1500 yuan / kW; the subsidy scale in 2023 is not more than 2.4gw, and the subsidy intensity is 1000 yuan / kW; the electricity price on the grid is local coal-fired electricity price; there will be no subsidy from 2024. ” This favorable policy is good for the terminal wind power industry. With the improvement of wind power industry and electronic industry, the epoxy resin will be increased, which will be conducive to the promotion of bisphenol a market. The epoxy resin market is also rising from 20000 yuan / ton after the New Year holiday to 25500-26000 yuan / ton at present. The factory orders are in short supply, and the terminal can only queue up to pick up the goods. After the downstream epoxy resin market continued to rise, the plant operation rate increased and the demand for bisphenol A increased.

From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall rise is the main, and the raw material side also presents a stable upward trend. The phenol Market is running at a high level, and the price is mainly supported by the shippers. There is little pressure on the market supply. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the phenol Market in East China offers 6700 yuan / ton. However, the acetone market rose sharply for two days, and the market offer remained high. The negotiation range of East China market was 7500-7700 yuan / ton, and the factories followed the upward trend of 350-450 yuan / ton. After the sharp rise of styrene in East China’s pure benzene industry, the phenol ketone industry chain was in a good state, and all of them were red from top to bottom.

According to the business community, bisphenol a market will still maintain this trend in the short term, but the current market supply is limited, the transaction is difficult to improve significantly, and the lower and lower reaches of high prices are still dominated by rigid demand. BPA market in East China is expected to remain at 18000 yuan / ton

According to the block data monitoring of the business society, affected by the active market trading, the market of ethyl acetate was strong. As of January 27, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 8012 yuan / ton, up 9.01% over the same period last week and 13.25% over the beginning of this month.

The domestic ethyl acetate market continued to be strong, and the raw material acetic acid market was in short supply, which led to high prices. The downstream market concentrated on stock preparation before the festival. The two-way positive support for the manufacturers to continuously raise their quotations, which led to the rise of market transaction price. At present, the active negotiations in the industry, coupled with the low inventory of enterprises, supported the strong operation of ethyl acetate Market. At present, about 8200-8300 yuan / ton in East China, 8100-8200 yuan / ton in North China and 8500-8600 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole is high and strong, and the spot supply falls short of demand. The downstream market has a positive performance in preparing goods before the festival, and the trade is active. Due to the shutdown and overhaul of some devices in North China, the market supply is in short supply. How long does the manufacturer make delivery, and the supply side gap is difficult to make up in a short time. The recent high volatility of the ethanol market, raw material corn prices firm, traders and farmers hard to sell, short-term prices remain high. The start-up of ethanol production enterprises is not high, and the large-scale plants have obvious warehouse discharge in the early stage, and the short-term price is firm. At present, the ethanol price in East China is about 7225 yuan / ton.

Analysts of ethyl acetate from business society believe that at present, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is positive, raw materials and demand side are good, and the support for the ethyl acetate Market is strong, and the market is still in short supply. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will be strong in a short time.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong fell from 2023.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2013.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.49%, up 20.08% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 93.64 on January 22.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2020 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2020 yuan / ton this weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the whole, the downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the purchase of agriculture is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products fell significantly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, from 5366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4556.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 15.09%, a year-on-year increase of 47.47%; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3343.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a rise of 15.09% 20%, up 13.28% over the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the lower reaches of urea was temporarily stable, at 7200.00 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand has declined. At the beginning of the week, urea supply is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the market will mainly fall.

On January 24, the commodity index of hydrobenzene was 46.16, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 54.75% compared with the highest point of 102.01 in the cycle (January 09, 2014), and increased by 53.92% compared with the lowest point of 29.99 on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

Price fluctuation of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from January 18 to 22 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, 18 prices, 22 prices, weekly ups and downs

East China, 4400-4550, 4050-4100, – 400

Shandong, 4150-4200, 4300-4400, – 175

This week (January 18-22), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, with 4175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4350 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 175 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s price adjustment of pure benzene in January 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

January 7, 4550, + 150

January 11, 4650, + 100

In January 2021, the price of pure benzene of Sinopec was increased twice, with a total increase of 250 yuan / ton. By the 25th, all its refineries had implemented a unified price of 4650 yuan / ton.

The pure benzene market was mainly volatile this week. Although the crude oil and external market had good support, the inventory of downstream raw materials was on the high side, the enthusiasm to enter the market was not high, and the demand decreased. The market in East China is weak, while the market in North China is under pressure. The price of pure benzene of Sinopec was temporarily stable after rising, and the price was 4650 yuan / ton as of the 21st. Shandong crude benzene bidding price this week under pressure, the implementation of 3000 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, the recent operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is about 60%, which is on the rise as a whole, about 2% higher than that of last week. The demand for crude benzene is good.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the overall bad news is too much, the pure benzene action is insufficient, the coking enterprises start well, and the crude benzene supply is stable. In the future, the terminal still needs to pay attention to the trend of pure benzene market and the demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene.

According to the business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9966 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 0.33%.

The domestic price of activated carbon is rising. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton. The domestic downstream demand for activated carbon is getting better, and the atmosphere of on-site trading is active. Most of the goods are delivered according to orders, and more attention is paid to the downstream transaction.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: most of the activated carbon market will be purchased on demand, with small orders to meet the normal production. Most of the traders will maintain the shipment and reduce the warehouse. In the short term, the price of activated carbon will be mainly adjusted by shock.

This week, the supply of domestic BDO spot goods is tight, and the market is strong and upward. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of January 15, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 13125 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%.

Some enterprises announced new settlement price and listing price:

Enterprise, settlement in December (bulk delivered), listing in January (bulk delivered)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, $12800 / T South China (bulk water delivery), $13300 / T East China, and $13500 / T South China (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, 12800 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered) 13300 / T East China, 13500 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered)

This week, the supply of domestic BDO spot goods is tight, and the market atmosphere is strong. The price of raw calcium carbide continued to soften, the cost support weakened, and the wait-and-see sentiment of downstream demand side was strong. However, Dongyuan, Panjin and Dalian reduced their production burden, Tunhe and Meike replaced their catalysts in the third phase, and Xinye boiler was overhauled and stopped until the 20th. The supply side was favorable and the support was obvious. The factory delivered the contract orders, and the transportation in some areas was slow, so the supply of spot goods was tight.

In terms of units, Jianfeng, Tianhua and Dongyuan are affected by natural gas, and the load is reduced to 70%; Tunhe two sets of units replace the catalyst in turn; Meike phase III replaces the catalyst, and is expected to restart soon; Xinye is affected by boiler maintenance, and stops until January 20; Panjin Dalian’s load is reduced due to shortage of raw materials; Yanchang oil unit is unstable, and the load is about 50%; heimao has been restarted, The load is not high; Kaixiang plant has been restarted, the current load is not high; Shanhua 30000 ton plant has been restarted, but the operation is unstable.

Raw material calcium carbide reserves are expected to continue to decline, the cost side support is still weak, and the demand side may be cautious. However, the current tense situation of spot supply continues, and manufacturers’ intention to support the market remains unchanged. If there is no significant improvement in the supply side in the short term, BDO analysts of the business community expect that the domestic BDO market will be mainly frozen in the short term.