1、 Price trend
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In March 2021, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China soared, with the highest price exceeding 5100 yuan / ton. Later, affected by the parking and maintenance of PVC downstream, the price dropped all the way. As can be seen from the above figure, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 5150.00 yuan / ton on March 18, up by 1583.33 yuan / ton, or 44.39%. As of March 29, the price of calcium carbide was 4300.00 yuan / ton, which decreased by 850 yuan / ton or 16.50% compared with that on March 18. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.47%. On the whole, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell in March, and the price fluctuated greatly. The commodity index of calcium carbide on March 28 was 120.52.
2、 Trend analysis
（1） Upstream:
As can be seen from the above figure, the upstream market of calcium carbide in March: the price of coke in Shanxi fell all the way in March. The quoted price dropped from 2560.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1960 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a drop of 600 yuan / ton or 23.44%. Compared with last year, it increased by 25.37%. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the support of calcium carbide cost was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of calcium carbide was negatively affected.
（2） Downstream:
As can be seen from the above figure, the downstream market of calcium carbide in March: the PVC market fluctuated in a narrow range in March. The average ex factory quotation price of PVC first dropped from 8750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8575.00 yuan / ton on March 5, a decrease of 2.00%, then rose to 8962.50 yuan / ton on March 17, an increase of 4.52%, and finally fell to 8737.50 yuan / ton on March 29, a decrease of 2.51%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.97%. The high consolidation of the downstream market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.
As a by-product of PVC by calcium carbide process, the ex factory price of caustic soda rose slightly in March. The average ex factory price of caustic soda rose from 457.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 490.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 32.50 yuan / ton or 7.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.68%. The price of caustic soda rose this month, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.
（3） Products:
In March, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell.
（4） Policy:
In Inner Mongolia, the policy of “double control of energy consumption” was strict, and it became normal for calcium carbide plants to limit electricity and shut down. As a result, the supply of calcium carbide dropped sharply, and it was difficult to get a single product of calcium carbide in the market. At that time, the demand for PVC rose sharply, and the price of calcium carbide rose steadily, ushering in a 10-year high. “Double control of energy consumption” policy still showed no sign of easing at the end of the month.
3、 Future forecast
At the end of this month, with the resumption of large foreign PVC factories, domestic PVC factories began to stop for maintenance, the demand for calcium carbide was no longer as before, and the price of calcium carbide dropped again and again. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in early April.
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