Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuates narrowly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI was 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 13150 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 0.38% drop in the week, a 3.54% rise in price and a 29.05% drop in price over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week aggregate MDI market fluctuations are frequent, are small fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, Coase’s Weekly Guidance Price “nothing new” remained stable, other suppliers’factories kept silent, the holders kept eating, under the influence of mentality and inventory pressure, the market talked about prices at low prices. In the next few days, the market was still “weak” and the downstream demand side was indifferent to the price level. Small orders just needed to negotiate to get goods, and the market supply volume was mostly circulated among middlemen. In the mid-week, in a continuing weak market atmosphere, market prices fell faster, but factories in the north were able to pull out in time, killing the trend of price drops. Market prices have stabilized, but the upward trend is not good enough. On Thursday, businesses were sceptical about the previous boost news, but northern supplier factories continued to work hard to announce the failure of Wanhua Ningbo separator, the continuous reduction of plant load and the impact of later supply. For a time, the holder’s offer increased steadily and slightly, and the importer’s offer failed to report. The atmosphere was slightly active. However, in the downstream worries, the operators still cautiously maintain shipment-oriented trading.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.23), the price of aggregated MDI in North China is stagnant and difficult to rise or fall. Supplier manufacturers are again in the market to the end, the holders are under pressure to deliver goods, after the market mentality is not the same, the market trading atmosphere is not significantly better. The price of aggregated MDI market in South China is deadlocked. North supplier factory boost news temporarily stopped falling, the mindset of different holders, continued to ship under pressure, the atmosphere of market negotiations continues to be light. The converged MDI market in eastern China is rocky and deadlocked. The news of boosting the market temporarily stopped falling, but the future market mentality is not very optimistic. The atmosphere of on-site talks is still light.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene rose. The unplanned shutdown and delayed restart of some large-scale installations within the week resulted in a reduction in outflow. While the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remains open, domestic import arrivals remain low, the overall market supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline to about 140,000 tons. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec added 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton. Market prices also continued to rise to 5300-5350 yuan/ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market rose. In terms of raw materials, pure benzene continued to rise. Sinopec raised its listing price by 100 yuan/ton, the domestic spot supply was not much, the port inventory continued to decline, and the sharp rise in crude benzene led to the rise in hydrobenzene prices, which supported the firm offer of pure benzene holders. This week, the average tender price of pure benzene in Jinling, Shandong Province, increased by 368 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the cost support increased. Huatai restarted on the aniline Market in North China, but due to the lack of shipment of typhoon water in the early stage, some downstream enterprises have low stock of raw materials, active stock, and low inventory of Jinling aniline. Without sales pressure and cost support, prices continue to rise. In the aniline Market in East China, Nanhua mainly prepared three cargo ships in late January. Except for self-use, a small amount of spot was released, and the price rose.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: The main manufacturers listed several times before the end of the month, then the new listing of manufacturers in September will undoubtedly rise. However, the overall market situation, the increase is not expected to be too large. MDI analysts from business associations expect to aggregate MDI market prices or maintain a steady upward trend next week and watch the attitudes of several supplier factories in Shanghai.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The average weekend price is 1966.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early weekend price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 1.67% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price remains stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up is limited. Domestic prices remain low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 190-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Industry Chain: Domestic nitric acid price declined this week, the market price was 1610 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price fell by 4.83%. Domestic nitric acid market price declined. Mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province offered 1600 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Anhui Province offered 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers offered 1600-1650 yuan/ton, and nitric acid went away. In general, the lower price of upstream nitric acid market has a negative impact on downstream ammonium nitrate Market price; upstream raw material liquid ammonia price fluctuation, the end of the weekend liquid ammonia market price of 320 yuan/ton, liquid ammonia is affected by upstream costs, and most manufacturers inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Subunits are restarted and local ammonia supply is increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, the supply of ammonia is sufficient for most manufacturers. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton, while that in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The low price of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate market remains low. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high. The market of nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains low.

Industry: In recent years, ammonium nitrate Market is general, downstream civilian explosion industry parks more, coupled with the upstream raw material market nitric acid price decline, ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices slightly lower, coupled with poor demand downstream, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to slightly lower later.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, aniline has risen sharply this week, with an overall increase of more than 5%. This week, the market price of aniline in Nanjing increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 5%, compared with last week, while that in Shandong increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 5.26%. At present, the mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 6300 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: At the beginning of the week, due to the supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, pure benzene in Korea was sent to the United States for arbitrage. The high price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar plate supported the rise of domestic pure benzene price. On Thursday, the supply of pure benzene in eastern China was tight. Pure benzene companies in Shandong sent their supplies to Eastern China, and the prices of refined pure benzene in Shandong rose.

Product: This week’s aniline tender price is higher than last week’s. This week’s rise in aniline prices is mainly supported by strong costs, low profits of downstream enterprises, insufficient follow-up to aniline prices, limiting the increase.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw material: At present, the listed price difference of domestic pure benzene has been reduced greatly, and Sinopec still has the possibility of raising the price. It is expected that some vessels will arrive next week, with an estimated delivery of about 20,000 tons. With the accidental stop of a styrene plant in East China, the tail plate of pure benzene will be slightly weaker next week and the increase will be limited.

It is expected that the price of pure benzene will increase in the later period, but the downstream starting rate of aniline is still not high and the demand for aniline is limited.

It is expected that the trend of aniline stability will be strong in the next week.

Price data

Domestic 93 # Gasoline Distribution Average Price Trend Chart

Average Distribution Price Trend Chart of 0# Diesel Oil in China

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of gasoline and diesel oil rose this week, domestic gasoline price was 6753 yuan/ton, 2.42% higher than last week’s gasoline price; domestic diesel price was 6569 yuan/ton, 2.26% higher than last week’s diesel price.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, international crude oil prices showed a sharp rise and then fell again, but the overall trend of slowly warming up. The latest crude oil change rate was – 6.13% as of August 15, according to business association data. The price reduction of refined oil further contracted, and the market of refined oil also rose steadily.

Industry Chain: Because the Sino-US trade situation is not expected to ease, coupled with the continuous increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, international crude oil prices also fell sharply after four consecutive days of rise, but international crude oil is still in an upward trend until 15 days, WTI crude oil prices closed at $59.48 per barrel, a weekly increase of 1.62%.

Market aspect: This week, the international oil price fell sharply again after the surge. The fluctuation range is large, but the overall trend is warming up. In terms of cost support, the price of domestic refined oil market is good. At the beginning of this week, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel oil shows a good upward trend. At the same time, due to typhoon landing in South and East China, transportation and loading links are limited and shipment is suspended, which is the cumulative market demand for midweek and weekend. As a result, the crude oil slump is less affected by the refined oil market. The monthly sales plan of the main unit sales company shows different performance, mostly showing a steady upward trend, with gasoline prices rising by about 50 yuan per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products from business associations, believes that the bad news in the international crude oil market is constantly releasing, and the pressure of crude oil price rise is greater. However, the gasoline and diesel market is still confident in the peak demand season of “gold, silver and ten”, and the price of refined oil market is expected to continue to rise steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea factory prices in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average price of urea mainstream producers dropped from 1845.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1818.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 1.45%, a decline of 5.65% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.57 on August 16.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell. The weekend quotation of urea in Yangmei Plain is 1755 yuan/ton, which is 110 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Ruixing in Shandong is 1780 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; and the weekend quotation of Mingshui Chemical Industry is 1920 yuan/ton, which is 20 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: Agricultural demand in Shandong has passed, agricultural demand has declined, although there is a phenomenon of fertilizer supplement, but demand is relatively small, urea growth is limited. With the downstream demand falling, urea prices also slowly declined. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, which further affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products overall downward, natural gas prices fell from 313.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3003.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.53%, liquid ammonia prices fell from 3300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.03%, urea cost support is weak, downstream melamine purchasing capacity is not strong, resulting in urea prices. The negative impact. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness is greatly reduced. In addition, the current climax of agricultural demand has passed, the atmosphere of urea market game is strong, and the start-up costs are gradually increasing, which makes the urea market price difficult to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late August.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has stabilized after rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7,608 yuan/ton, while from Wednesday to Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was stable at the high price of 7,741 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.75%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, recovered from double weekend, increased by 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, and stabilized on 15 days. At present, the market turnover is about 7650-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton. The Shandong market was affected by typhoon this week. In the middle of the week, some upstream and downstream enterprises cut production and stopped reporting. Now most of them have returned to normal, but the refinery offer is still weak.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market fluctuated sharply this week, rising and falling significantly, Wednesday prices fell sharply, and continued to fall slightly on Thursday, or had a negative impact on propylene. On the downstream side, there is a strong wait-and-see mood and a decline in buying enthusiasm. This week, polypropylene futures prices were stable, spot prices rose slightly, plant load increased slightly, and there was no significant negative impact on propylene; acrylic acid prices increased, the market was optimistic, and propylene propylene propylene propylene had certain support; while propylene oxide plant plant decreased negative, prices continued to rise, the weekly increase reached 3.23%, propylene has a part. The market of epichlorohydrin declined by more than 10% at the beginning of the week, the price of mainstream manufacturers declined, the market atmosphere was strong, the trading atmosphere was weak, the real order was limited, the low-end offer increased significantly under the pressure of shipment, which caused certain pressure on the propylene market; while the market of n-butanol increased slightly last weekend, and the isooctanol weekend. Small downward trend has little effect on propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that: in general, the recent international crude oil market is unstable and has changed a lot. In the weekend downturn, the PP spot market is relatively stable, and the downstream market has risen and fallen. Among them, the price of epichlorohydrin has fallen sharply. This week, affected by typhoon, both upstream and downstream production has been cut off, although it is now large. Most of them have recovered, but the overall market is relatively cold. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market is in a deadlock. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregate MDI is 13650 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, 1360yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 0.37% in the week, a rise of 10.12% annually, and a decrease of 32.95% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the aggregate MDI market is deadlocked. At the beginning of this week, the guided price of Cox founder remained stable, temporarily holding the people’s mind. However, under the overall economic environment and inventory pressures, middlemen frequently deliver goods at low prices, and market negotiations dominate. However, the downstream is still not in a high mood to buy, half-push and half-down is mostly small single-handed goods. For several consecutive days this week, despite the fact that the factory controls goods in the market, the market price is still inevitably falling. As Wanhua announced the settlement in August ahead of schedule, Wanhua distributors are more cautious in delivering goods, resulting in a widening price gap between Shanghai and Wanhua sources. In a short time, the aggregated MDI market is still dominated by supply and demand game, and the transaction has not improved significantly. In addition, there is no strong price support. Even though external speculation factors continue, the price is still difficult to improve.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.9), the aggregate MDI market in South China was weak. With the downstream sustained demand weakening, the focus of market negotiations slowly declined, the confidence of future market declined, just need to buy gas is not strong, continue to watch factory price guidelines, traders cautiously follow the market. The aggregate MDI market in North China has a narrow downward trend. The persistent downstream buying Depression led to a slow decline in MDI factory prices, traders cautiously followed the decline, lack of confidence in the future, and weak short-term market consolidation. The aggregate MDI market in East China is weaker. Main factories offer downward, downstream purchasing gas continued to shrink, business confidence in the future declined, the buying power is insufficient, short-term market weak operation.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week’s pure benzene market continued to weaken, week by Sino-US trade talks expected not optimistic, RMB depreciation and other Macro-negative news, commodities fell as a whole, pure benzene pressure weakened. The sharp drop in crude oil also led to the weakening of the outer plate of pure benzene. As a result, the price of pure benzene has been declining since the beginning of the week. Downstream users wait for Sinopec to cut prices, wait and see, market turnover is weak. At the beginning of the week, there were still sporadic transactions of 5000 yuan/ton, but then driven by the low-price supply in Shandong Province, the market buying gravity dropped to 4900-4950 yuan/ton.

Aniline: Within a week, the domestic aniline Market showed a trend of declining in the north and rising in the south. In terms of raw materials, crude oil and pure benzene continued to fall, and pure benzene market was pessimistic. In addition, the overall supply is sufficient, downstream prices are low, and the price of pure benzene is weak. The average tender price in Jinling, Shandong Province, fell by about 223 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost advantage was weak. On the downstream side, due to poor terminal demand dragging down the market, coupled with the impact of environmental inspection, resulting in low downstream start-up rate of aniline such as auxiliaries and dyes, and limited consumption of aniline. Despite the large price difference between Shanxi and Shandong, under the condition of weak cost and demand, aniline enterprises in North China have poor shipments and high inventories, so they have to reduce prices to promote shipment. However, due to the fact that the spot owner prepares the shipment to deliver the contract within a week, there is a small amount of spot supply to the old customers, and there is no pressure to ship, so the price of East China enterprises has moved up narrowly, forming a trend of north-down and south-up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: The aggregated MDI market is still dominated by supply and demand game in a short time, and the transaction has not improved significantly, coupled with no strong price support, even if external speculation factors continue, the market stalemate is still difficult to change. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price stabilization, weak consolidation, rise and fall dilemma.

Price Trend

Business Club: MTBE market prices fell this week (August 5-August 10)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 5483 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: After the domestic MTBE market rose to its peak this week, the overall market entered the range of shocks to sort out the market. In addition, the price of international crude oil fell sharply, and the price of gasoline fell. This week, MTBE prices fell slightly.

Industry Chain: International oil prices fell sharply this week. The price of WTI crude oil was close to $50 per barrel. On August 9, the price of WTI crude oil was $52.54 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 5.61%. However, the weekly decline of gasoline price was 0.16%, which had little impact on MTBE market.

MTBE market: At present, most domestic MTBE refineries are always at a low inventory level, so the MTBE market price is at a high level in the year. From January 2019 to now, the MTBE price range is 5350-5550 yuan/ton. After the price of domestic refined oil was lowered at 24pm on August 6, the crude oil change rate continued to run negatively. Up to August 8, the latest crude oil change rate was -2.04%. The news is not good for the mindset of oil market operators. The confidence of MTBE market is insufficient and the enthusiasm of entering the market is reduced. With the decline of crude oil, the poor trend of gasoline market and the lower enthusiasm of oil regulators in purchasing raw materials, MTBE market prices have changed from rising to falling this week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the possibility of a substantial recovery in international oil prices next week is low, the overall domestic demand for gasoline is general, while MTBE prices rose to the year’s high, and MTBE market prices are expected to continue to pull back next week.

Price data:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic bromine market fell sharply in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of bromine was about 34000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was about 30714 yuan/ton. The overall decline was 9.66%, which was 7.5% higher than the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This month, the domestic bromine market is affected by environmental protection and continuous rainfall, the overall start-up rate has been reduced. Some enterprises in Laizhou Bay and Changyi area have stopped work, the spot supply has declined to a certain extent, and is expected to resume around mid-August. At present, the downstream market is in the off-season, the demand for bromine is not good, leading to some enterprises to appear one. Fixed stock. At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises is around 2900-31000 yuan/ton, and some of the real orders are on the low side.

Industry chain: Bromine upstream industry rose and fell differently this month: the sulfur market dropped 13.71% in a month, currently about 860 yuan/ton; the caustic soda market rose 1.44% in a month, currently about 705 yuan/ton; the soda market fell first, then stabilized, by 3.3%, currently the average price is about 1660 yuan/ton; the sulfuric acid market rose and then decreased in a month. The increase was 5.81%, currently about 227 yuan per ton. At present, the downstream flame retardant industry of bromine is in poor demand, the market as a whole is light, the price of bromine is insufficient to support, and the industry of pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates is affected by environmental protection, resulting in low overall start-up and limited demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of bromine industry in business associations believe that the domestic bromine market has started to decline, and the industry production is expected to resume around mid-August. At present, the downstream market is just in poor demand, and some imported low-cost bromine has a certain impact on the market, resulting in a reduction in the purchase of domestic bromine in some downstream. It is expected that bromine prices will decline weakly in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’list, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise in July, with an increase rate of 5.90%. Most of the quotations of dealers had several price adjustments, with an increase of 300-500 yuan per ton or so. By the end of the weekend, the quotation is generally between 8500 and 8700 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

This month, the adipic acid market reversed its downward trend in June, and the market rebounded. Under the influence of upstream costs, factory price adjustments, and high price settlement at the end of the month, prices rose repeatedly. The fundamental reason for the rise was the soaring upstream pure benzene. According to the monitoring of business associations, the increase of pure benzene reached 8.10% in July. Considering the lag of cost transmission, the market quotation of adipic acid was passively raised by increasing more than 17% in June and July. However, at present, the downstream market wait-and-see mentality is still relatively heavy, purchasing behavior is biased towards rationality, and there is room for merchants to make profits. Social inventory still shows some pressure, and the shipment dynamics do not change much compared with the previous period.

On the supply side, the market still shows certain supply pressure, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the level of equipment maintenance is not high, the median level of inventory performance of manufacturers, distributors are getting goods one after another, and the current market inventory is constantly degraded. Therefore, although adipic acid market quotation has increased, but also There are many relatively low-priced goods in the market, and the overall supply pressure is still in the market, which leads to the strong willingness of distributors to let profits go of inventory, the price difference between market price offer and actual transaction, and the market quotation is relatively chaotic.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is moderate. Although nylon 66 belongs to the peak season of market consumption, there is no phenomenon of centralized purchasing in the downstream this year, so the downstream start-up rate has not generally increased. The start-up rate is basically 5-60%. The upstream adipic acid has not formed a strong boost, so this market. The rebound basically depends on the upstream pure benzol, driven by the cost effect, which belongs to the passive follow-up. The market is still going out of stock cycle.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of adipic acid in the branch of business society and chemical industry thinks that the price of adipic acid is stabilizing and rebounding at present, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, the cost pressure also exists, and the profit margin of the manufacturer is further compressed. It is expected that adipic acid will easily rise and fall in the later period without reversing the cost side. Therefore, the Business Association believes that adipic acid will be in the short run or in the short run. We will continue to maintain a narrow upward adjustment pattern.