1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the price of domestic dry process aluminum fluoride rose slightly in February. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 8933 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 9166 yuan / ton, with the price down 2.61%.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the price of aluminum fluoride rose, and some aluminum fluoride manufacturers lowered the factory price: at present, the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in February, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply. Recently, the situation of manufacturers in the field improved. Affected by the epidemic situation, some manufacturers did not resume production temporarily. In addition, the transportation was limited. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises not shut down during the Spring Festival in the downstream was exhausted. The purchase demand increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid rose. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite was higher The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported by a substantial increase in Georgia, and the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has gone up. By the end of the month, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region was 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market was 10500-11500 yuan / ton. This month, the price of aluminum fluoride rose slightly, and the quotation of Zhengzhou Zerun energy chemical aluminum fluoride increased by 500 yuan / ton. In February, affected by the epidemic situation, the start-up of aluminum fluoride manufacturers continued to be delayed. Aluminum fluoride manufacturers mainly consumed inventory, and the decrease in supply pushed aluminum fluoride prices up slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that the spot supply of upstream hydrofluoric acid market is tight in February, and the market price is rising. In addition, short-term aluminum fluoride manufacturers are not all back to work, and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to rise steadily in March.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 1733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.96%, down 7.28% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 81.40 on February 28.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1710 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1790 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the current domestic market is mainly fluctuating and rising. Agricultural production began to prepare fertilizer, and the downstream industry was slowly recovering. In terms of supply: the production load of some enterprises has increased, and the overall supply has increased, while the logistics and transportation tend to be normal, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and manufacturers hold a strong price mentality. It is expected that the short-term urea market will rise slightly, followed by the downstream resumption of work.

Industry chain: the upstream products as a whole seem to have increased slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 3190.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3053.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.28%, down 30.07% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia this week has risen slightly, from 2620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2816.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 7.51%, down 2.76% compared with the same period of last year, overall It seems that urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 5933.33 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. However, the number of downstream rubber sheet plants has increased, which has a positive impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up. Urea analysts of business association believe that the current epidemic situation has eased, some downstream industries are also gradually starting, agricultural demand is rising again, and the transportation situation has also been eased, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is reduced. At present, the domestic market has many favorable supports, and the short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of domestic light potash at the beginning of the week was 6337.50 yuan / ton, while the average factory price of domestic light potash at the end of the week was 6375.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.59%. The current price dropped 7.44% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week, the market of potash increased slightly. Due to the impact of the epidemic, potash enterprises are in the process of resumption. Now, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd., Wenshui Zhenxing chemical fertilizer Co., Ltd. and Jiaocheng County Hesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. have resumed their work. However, the supply of potash market is still at a low level, the actual volume of the market is relatively general, and the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, while the domestic potash market rose slightly. According to the statistics of the business agency: in February, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to potash analysts of the business association, the recent consolidation of nitric acid market is the main trend. With the increase of resumption enterprises, the market supply is rising. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

Commodity index: on February 13, 2020, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on February 14, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.1% since 2020.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to February 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market will be lowered. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the last ten days, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; since February, the mainstream price has been about 10600-107000000 yuan / ton. It is reported that at present, the effective capacity of acrylonitrile in China is 2.249 million tons / year, and the production start-up during the Spring Festival is stable, with an average start-up rate of 96%; however, from the beginning of February, the 130000 tons / year acrylonitrile unit of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down due to the by-product transportation problem, and the 130000 tons / year unit of Shandong kelur Chemical Co., Ltd. took a negative reduction due to the raw material liquid ammonia transportation problem, and the start-up rate of the acrylonitrile industry dropped by 6% to 90%. Construction is now delayed downstream. In the later stage, other manufacturers will take measures to limit production due to delivery or raw material problems, and it is expected that acrylonitrile production will still decline.

Downstream: the construction of water treatment project is stopped during Spring Festival holiday, and there is basically no downstream purchase order. Under the current situation, the construction enterprise’s return to work is strictly controlled, and there is little return to work.

Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, has been continuously shut down since receiving the notice of shut down on December 19, 2019. The long Spring Festival holiday mode of the factory meets public health emergencies again. According to the manufacturer, the inventory is relatively sufficient. At present, the demand is off-season, the procurement is weak, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

Industry:

1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.

2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.

3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from that day to January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

5. In 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area shut down in the holiday mode with domestic special situation, and the application for resumption of work is strictly approved. It is reported that the manufacturers in the main production area have not started production so far.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the manufacturers in Henan have not resumed work, the inventory is acceptable, and the demand is weak; the current price of the upstream raw material acrylonitrile has little change, and it is predicted that the production will be limited due to the impact of shipment or other problems in the later period, resulting in the decline of the production; from the current factors, the price of polyacrylamide is likely to remain stable.

On the weekend of the 17th, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic liquid ammonia fluctuated slightly. Most of the quotations of enterprises were flat at the beginning of the week. The northern region stabilized and some enterprises increased slightly, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the increase of liquid ammonia in this week (1.13-17) was 1.11%, mainly due to the small increase of the prices of some enterprises at the beginning of the week, which was mainly affected by the decrease of the ammonia volume of enterprises. At the end of the week, most manufacturers’ quotations were flat last week. Some enterprises in Shandong, the main production area, experienced a callback period at the end of December 2019. After new year’s day, they have been stable for nearly two weeks. Prices in Northwest China have remained stable. At present, local ammonia output is abundant, especially in Shandong Province, where some manufacturers have loose supply of goods and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing, but the manufacturers with large ammonia output are mainly stable in price, and they are going to sell goods one after another The main quotation is 2900-3100 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia is also stable, and the lack of demand leads to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After urea conversion, the ammonia quantity is controlled, and the inventory pressure of the enterprise is slightly relieved. At present, there are many downstream stoppages, and the main quotation in North China is 2800-3000 yuan / ton.

The pressure of environmental protection in Hebei is still not to be underestimated, which leads to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, leads to weak demand in the downstream, more enterprises accumulating in the warehouse, and no significant change in price. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2800-2950 yuan / ton.

Over the weekend, the market in Central China also stabilized. The delivery pressure in Hubei was slightly better than that before the festival. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is in a bad atmosphere and weak operation. The mainstream quotation in Henan is 2700-2850 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market is slightly adjusted, the enterprise quotation is not changed much, most enterprises have room to make profits, many devices are converted to urea production, and the production of liquid ammonia is affected to a certain extent, so as to balance the inventory backlog of manufacturers. It is expected that the transition will be stable before the festival. The price of liquid ammonia is not likely to rise or fall significantly, and the market may continue to maintain stability.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP has been stable this week, and the DOP market has been stable. As of January 17, the price of DOP in East China was 7300.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of DOP at the beginning of the week, down 13.95% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the figure that although the price of DOP raw material octanol has remained stable this week, the overall price of octanol has declined after new year’s day, the cost of plasticizer has declined, the driving force of DOP’s rise has weakened, and DOP’s market is negative.

In terms of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock this week. After the new year’s day, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, and the cost of DOP fell sharply, which was negative for DOP market. The downward pressure of DOP is high.

3、 Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the raw material price of DOP continued to fall this week, the cost of DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream customers are stocking up, logistics is out of service, high-speed transportation is difficult, and transportation costs are increasing, which leads to the cost increase of DOP manufacturers, and the price reduction space of DOP manufacturers is limited. In general, the downward pressure of DOP is increasing, and it is expected that the future DOP prices will maintain stability.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of domestic light potash at the beginning of the week was 6325.00 yuan / ton, while the average factory price of domestic light potash at the end of the week was 6337.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.2%. The current price was down 9.14% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the market of potash market this week is low and consolidated. There are still new arrivals of imported potash at the port, but it can not be sold to the outside world temporarily. The quotation of traders is stable. Affected by the approaching of Spring Festival, the market of potash market is running generally, and the price of potash is rising slightly. The actual trading volume of the market is relatively general, the downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in January, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that the recent consolidation of the nitric acid market is the main market, spot trading is tepid, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and it is expected that there will be no big improvement. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 10, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5450 yuan / ton, up 7.92% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was 5090 yuan / ton. Later, with the change of the situation in the United States and Iraq, it rose and recalled. By Friday, the price was 5290 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up 3.93%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of January 8, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 67.81%, coal production 70.17% and non coal production 65.99%, basically the same as last week.

In terms of the unit, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 400000 tons in Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has been operated stably since the successful feeding on December 26, with a daily output of about 500 tons. The 700000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was commissioned on the 10th.

As of January 9, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 350000 tons, down 13000 tons or 15.66% from last Thursday, down 15000 tons or 4.11% from this Monday. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 175000 tons, 13000 tons lower than last Thursday; Ningbo has 62000 tons; Shanghai and Changshu have 46000 tons; Taicang has 47000 tons.

According to the news, the East China port is expected to reach 178000 tons of cargo next week, of which 65000 tons are planned to arrive at Zhangjiagang port and 43000 tons are planned to arrive at Taicang wharf.

In the downstream, polyester market gradually shut down for holidays. At present, the operation rate of the unit has declined slightly. After the early price went up, the enthusiasm of the downstream for purchasing high priced raw materials has weakened.

3、 Future forecast

This week, due to the conflict between the United States and Iran, the crude oil rose. Based on the factors expected to increase the cost, the price of glycol changed to a depressed state and the trend was stronger. In addition, due to the low arrival of the port, the main port inventory in East China is at an absolute low level, and the accumulated inventory expectation in the early stage is not realized, which also contributed to the increase of glycol price. However, in the later stage, the delivery of new devices will be put into normal operation, and the supply of goods will be supplemented. In January, the traditional demand for glycol is off-season. In the long run, the price of glycol has a slight downward pressure.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

Acrylic market rose slightly this week, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. As of January 10, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises was 8166.67 yuan / ton, up 0.41% compared with the beginning of the week. In a three-month cycle, it rose 6.06% year-on-year. On October 10, the main quotation of domestic acrylic acid market was 7400-9300 yuan / ton. On January 10, the acrylic commodity index was 40.95, flat with yesterday, down 59.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and up 66.67% from the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market slightly rose this week. The cost support has been greatly increased. The acrylic acid production enterprises have not yet fully recovered their devices. The spot supply is limited. The downstream enterprises prepare goods orderly before the festival. The inquiry strength has been improved. The negotiation atmosphere is good. Some factories raise their offers, and the acrylic acid market is stable. As of October 10, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of puic acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. has 7800 yuan / ton of puic acid and 9400 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, acrylic acid The price is 7800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week (1.6-1.10) the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region rose, or 2.53%. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on July 7 and August, it was stable on September 9, and on October, it continued to increase by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7050 yuan / ton. It is expected that propylene market price may still rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the acrylic analysts of the business club, in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, with strong cost support and a good atmosphere for goods preparation in the downstream before the festival. It is expected that the acrylic market will rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream, downstream and mainstream market conditions.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of data on the business club’s list, this week’s pure benzene operation was weak and stable. This week, Jincheng Petrochemical raised 50 yuan / ton on Wednesday, Sinochem lowered 50 yuan / ton on Friday, and the listing prices of other enterprises were stable. The selling price of pure benzene on Friday is 5500-5950 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week’s pure benzene port inventory is slightly lower than last week. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back.

2. Crude oil: this week’s oil price shows a parabola trend, and it went down for four consecutive days after Monday’s big rise. Earlier this week, oil prices rose as concerns about the supply or decline of crude oil increased as tensions in the Middle East escalated last week. Later, oil prices fell sharply due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and signs of easing in the Middle East. WTI fell 6.1% and Brent fell 2.8% compared to January 3.

3. Downstream industry: this week, styrene market is in a narrow range of volatility consolidation trend. The arrival of styrene in the main port increased. Generally speaking, the styrene market was forced to stay short this week, with a trading deadlock, up 1.17% compared with last Friday.

This week, aniline enterprises in the lower reaches of Shandong province competed for shipment, and Jinling reduced 100 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.52%. The upstream pure benzene price is still high, the downstream demand is light, and the profits of aniline enterprises are in deficit.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price will return to the previous level and wait for the follow-up direction.

2. Market: the stock up before the year is basically over, near the Spring Festival, with heavy snow in the north and limited transportation, it is difficult for Northern resources to enter East China for arbitrage, and East China’s supply may remain at the current level. Styrene is expected to arrive more next week, and inventory will continue to rise. Downstream terminal digestion pressure, receiving intention is weak, market bearish mood spread. Downstream market will continue to limit the recovery of pure benzene market.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to consolidate in the next week.