According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has dropped recently. On March 24, the price was 1145.25 US dollars / ton, and on March 26, the average price of ethylene was 1121.50 US dollars / ton, down 2.07%. The current price has increased by 2.65% month on month, and the current price has increased by 97.53% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 25th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1047-1055 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $992-1000 per ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 25th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1219-1233 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1199-1208 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States dropped slightly, reaching US $1216-1229 per ton as of the 25th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, the United States and Asia showed a slight downward trend. Generally speaking, the external market of ethylene is cold and the market tends to go down.

International: on March 25, international oil prices fell, and the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was $58.56/barrel, down $2.62 or 4.68%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract was $61.80/barrel, down $2.45 or 3.81%. Previously, oil prices rebounded sharply due to the news that the huge container ship blocked the Suez Canal. Although the ship has not completely extricated itself from the predicament, the market has now got rid of the influence of channel blockage. Oil prices recovered most of their gains yesterday. At present, the market focuses on the negative effect of the blockade measures to prevent and control the epidemic in Europe on economic recovery.

On March 25, the styrene market as a whole rose steadily. Boosted by the news of production reduction or temporary maintenance of some devices, night styrene futures continued to rise sharply, with be2105 closing at 8177, up 2.15%, increasing 833 positions, boosting the market mentality of today’s styrene spot market. In the aspect of equipment, the investment of new production capacity is offset by the reduction of equipment maintenance capacity. To sum up, the cost of styrene has moved down, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the replenishment at the end of the month, the maintenance of the plant, and the mixing of air and air are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, a new round of blockade of cruise ships by many countries has inhibited the growth of crude oil demand, crude oil is on a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market. Therefore, data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the following direction.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business society (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on March 19, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8725 yuan / ton, up 2.72% from the beginning of the week, 17.54% from the beginning of the month, and 44.85% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market rose sharply to a new high. The futures and spot prices both rose to more than 9000 yuan / ton, officially stepping into the era of 9000 yuan, and the focus moved to a high level. This week’s price rise was mainly supported by strong cost, strong external price, favorable supply and demand and other factors, which jointly boosted the PVC market. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was in full swing. The price in most areas of the spot market was increased by about 200-350 yuan / ton, and the price rapidly rose to more than 9000 yuan / ton. The futures price also rose to a new high in the past decade. It can be said that the rising trend was rapid, but the upward momentum continued to be insufficient. In the middle of the week, the rising trend of PVC slowed down, and the fluctuation was adjusted.

At present, the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen by more than 40% since March, and the price is more than 5000 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Moreover, the supply of PVC is tight. Some PVC enterprises reduce the load to ease the pressure of cost. With the superposition of device maintenance, the on-site supply is declining, which is good for PVC upward. Meanwhile, the international supply gap is still in place, and the PVC export is better. The latest quotation adjustment of Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd In addition, the downstream products industry is gradually recovering, continuing to maintain the just needed procurement, with general enthusiasm for high price PVC procurement, and some small and medium-sized enterprises may have cost inversion phenomenon. However, as the market gradually enters the peak season, the demand side support is expected to increase. On the whole, PVC fundamentals are good, plus superposition, short-term correction is also a digestion stage after the rise, the price trend is still strong.

Spot, 19 domestic pvc5 calcium carbide mainstream quotation range in 8800-9050 yuan / ton around. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is 8750-8950 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in North China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in South China is 8850-8950 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Central China is 8850-9000 yuan / ton, and the price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Southwest China is 8800-8950 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, this week’s futures hit a new high in nearly 10 years, driving the spot trend up to 9280. On the 19th, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 8910 yuan / ton and closed at 8770 yuan / ton. Yesterday’s settlement price was 9085 yuan / ton, down 3.47%. The trading range was 8720-8960 yuan / ton, with 692631 transactions and 303026 positions.

Regional varieties March 19, 2007

Changzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8950-9000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8850-8950 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8850-8980 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8850-8950 yuan / ton

The price of upstream crude oil fell for five consecutive trading days. On Thursday, the price of crude oil fell by more than 7% in a single day. On March 19, the price of WTI crude oil futures market rose. The settlement price of the main contract was 61.44 US dollars per barrel, up 1.38 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract was $64.35/barrel, or $1.32. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday after concerns about the slowdown of economic recovery triggered by a new round of epidemic in Europe suppressed the decline of oil prices. Crude oil was sold off in a large area. At present, the market is gradually returning to rationality, stopping the decline and rebounding. At present, concerns about vaccination and potential side effects in Europe are slowing down, and oil prices turn bullish.

On March 19, the reference price of ethylene was 1164.75, up 5.43% from March 1 (1104.75). At present, crude oil: the uncertainty of crude oil demand has hit the market enthusiasm, crude oil is on a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market, so business community data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

On March 19, the reference price of calcium carbide was 5116.67, up 43.46% from March 1 (3566.67). The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, with higher prices compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide, and the market demand exceeds supply. The main reason for the rise of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is the double control of energy consumption, power limit and furnace shutdown, and the calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen sharply and the supply is tight, the cost support is strong, the external market is strong, the maintenance is good, and the downstream demand toughness is still positive, and the fundamentals are still good. At the present stage, it mainly digests the early growth, and it is expected that the PVC trend is still strong, and the price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

The impact of the international crude oil market on the $70 / barrel line failed, and the trend of the crude oil market turned downward. At present, the asphalt market is in the off-season, the supply and demand of asphalt are weak, and the asphalt market price will follow the crude oil price. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the price of asphalt was reported at 3223 yuan / ton on March 19. At present, the overall price of asphalt market is stable, and some regions have started to fall.

On the demand side, March is still the off-season of domestic asphalt market demand. Recently, northern China has experienced sandstorm and cold spring weather. In southern China, rainy weather is in the majority. At present, the operating rate of terminal projects remains low, and the release of rigid demand for asphalt is limited. In addition, crude oil prices have plummeted, and the bearish sentiment of asphalt market is becoming stronger, so the overall asphalt market is still in a weak demand state. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, the asphalt plant of each refinery was shut down for maintenance, and the asphalt plant operation rate remained at a low level; so far, the asphalt operation rate has not rebounded significantly, and the asphalt operation rate in Shandong is at a low level of about 26%. According to the data, China’s asphalt production continued to decline to 2.1168 million tons in February, down 443 million tons on a month on month basis. Compared with 3 million tons in the same period of 2019, it is down by about 29%. At present, the domestic asphalt market is weak in both supply and demand. The market price follows the change of international crude oil price.

According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: under the situation of weak supply and demand in asphalt market, the price of asphalt market is following the decline, and the trend of crude oil is obvious. The sharp drop of international crude oil price on March 18 is bound to lower the price center of domestic asphalt market. It is expected that the domestic asphalt price will enter a downward channel in the near future.

From March 8 to December 2021, the market price of crude benzene increased slightly. The domestic ex factory price was 4607 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4695 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 1.91%.

In March 2023, Sinopec did not adjust the price of 6750 yuan / ton of pure benzene.

Coking enterprises started well this week. At present, they have sufficient profits and good production enthusiasm. Affected by the wide fluctuation trend of crude oil this week, the price of pure benzene fluctuated mainly, the price fluctuated frequently, and the market enthusiasm was poor. This week, the crude benzol auction situation, bidding price increased slightly.

The overall operation rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is stable at about 70%, with a slight increase in overall operation. Most of the units are in normal operation, and the demand for crude benzene is relatively stable. At present, the price difference of crude benzene hydrogenation benzene is more reasonable, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are improved, and the production and sales of enterprises are active.

In the future, the business association thinks that the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is reasonable, and the profit margin of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is better than that in the earlier stage. It is expected that the demand for crude benzene in the future is fair, and the price of crude benzene will fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acetic anhydride market continued to rise in March, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise. As of March 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 9550.00 yuan / ton, up 2.69% compared with 9300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1). The cost of acetic anhydride continued to rise, and the market of acetic anhydride remained high.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, in March, the price of acetic acid rose and maintained stability. In March, Hualu Hengsheng acetic acid equipment resumed operation, domestic acetic acid raw material supply increased, acetic acid rising momentum weakened, acetic acid market high firm, acetic anhydride cost high firm, acetic anhydride market rising momentum still exists.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that in March, the methanol price first stabilized and then rose, the methanol price rose steadily, the acetic anhydride cost rose steadily, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the acetic acid price rose in March and then stabilized strongly, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the acetic anhydride market stabilized, but the methanol price rose steadily in March, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the rising power of acetic anhydride increased. Overall, in March, the raw material prices of acetic anhydride fluctuated, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the market of acetic anhydride remained high. In the future, with the price of acetic acid and methanol stabilized, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride stabilized, and the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will stabilize strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on March 5 was 5216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.97% from the beginning of the week, up 3.3% on a month on month basis, and down 2.8% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market continued to rise steadily. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus rose slightly. The price of phosphoric acid continued to rise cautiously. Compared with before the Spring Festival, the price increased by about 100-300 yuan / ton, and the low-end price gradually moved closer to the high-end price. At present, the market is gradually warming up, the downstream demand has slightly improved after the festival, the wait-and-see attitude has not decreased, and the actual transaction is tepid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 5, the quotation in Sichuan was 4900-5550 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 5100 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5100-5400 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin was 5900 yuan / ton. The prices in various regions rose steadily.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 4900-5550

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade 5100-5400

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade 5100

In Beijing and Tianjin, the content of ﹣ 4 ﹣ is 85% industrial grade ﹣ 4800-5900 on March 5

In terms of raw materials, the price of yellow phosphorus rose this week, and the spot of yellow phosphorus was relatively tight. The main manufacturers made orders in the early stage, and the downstream purchased properly. On March 5, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 17600.00, up 2.03% compared with March 1 (17250.00). At present, the spot of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the downstream is suitable for purchasing. In addition, the downstream pesticide market is up, boosting the price of yellow phosphorus. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise steadily in the short term.

The domestic phosphate ore market maintained a temporary stable operation. On March 5, the reference price of phosphate rock was 423.33, which was the same as that on March 1. In March, with the arrival of spring ploughing season, the demand of phosphate fertilizer industry in the downstream of domestic phosphate ore will continue to increase, which will give support to the phosphate ore industry. Therefore, the phosphate ore Data Engineer of business society believes that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate at a high and stable level in the short term, and with the increase of downstream demand, the market price will continue to explore.

On the downstream side, the current market of ammonium phosphate is very good, and the price has risen to a new high in this year. With the rising price of raw materials, the domestic downstream demand is gradually increasing due to the approach of spring ploughing, and the foreign export demand is increasing. Under the favorable conditions, the price of ammonium phosphate is running at a high level. However, after the surge, the downstream companies were cautious and wait-and-see. Ammonium phosphate enterprises still stopped orders and reported too much. There was no sales pressure for the time being. They mainly issued orders in the early stage, and they were in strong price support mood. There is no obvious negative signal in the market, it is expected that ammonium phosphate will rise more likely, and the market will be strong in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 2 kinds of commodities rising or falling to 0 in the price fluctuation list of phosphorus chemical industry in the 09th week of 2021 (3.1-3.5). The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (2.03%), monoammonium phosphate (2.01%) and phosphoric acid (0.97%); both rose or fell by 1% this week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has not risen much recently, and the phosphoric acid market continues to rise cautiously, which is significantly higher than that before the Spring Festival. The low-end price gradually moves closer to the high-end price, and the downstream demand slightly improves. The wait-and-see attitude remains unchanged. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to follow the fluctuation of the cost side in the short term, with rising expectations.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9933 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.67%.

The domestic price of activated carbon has been slightly reduced. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; the domestic downstream activated carbon is sold on demand, and the market is lack of good news support, and the downstream is mainly on the wait-and-see.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the downstream demand of activated carbon market is not good, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, affected by the rise of crude oil, the quotation of o-benzene jumped three times after the festival, the external price rose, and the domestic o-benzene market rose. As of February 26, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6500.00 yuan / ton, up 1500 yuan / ton or 30.00% from 5000 yuan / ton before the festival (February 10).

Crude oil prices soared

It can be seen from the crude oil price trend chart that the crude oil price of WTI rose sharply in February, up by 21.5%, which led to the price rise of downstream industry chain. The market of o-benzene industry chain is rising, and the power of o-benzene rising is greater.

Mixed xylene market trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in February, with an increase of 26%; after the festival, the price of mixed xylene rose sharply, with an increase of 17%. The price of mixed xylene increased, the cost of o-xylene increased, the pressure of o-xylene increased, and the support of o-xylene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business society, believes that the soaring crude oil market in February has stimulated the price of downstream industry chain to rise sharply, the price of mixed xylene has followed the rise, the cost of o-xylene has remained high, and the power of o-xylene rise is sufficient. With the continuous promotion of global vaccine, the expected impact of the epidemic is weakened, clearing the obstacles for rapid economic recovery; under the stimulus policy of economic recovery and loose monetary policy of the United States, the market inflation expectation is increased, the commodity expectation enters the rising cycle, and the crude oil bears the brunt in the macroeconomic environment and rises sharply; the rise of crude oil price drives the price of downstream mixed xylene to rise sharply, and the price of o-xylene to rise sharply The cost of toluene rose sharply, and the price of o-benzene jumped three times after the festival. In the future, the crude oil market is strong, the rising power of crude oil price still exists, the cost of o-xylene remains high, and the pressure of o-xylene decline is weak. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10033 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with an increase of 0.33%.

The price of domestic activated carbon is rising. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton. The downstream of domestic activated carbon is delivered on demand, and the atmosphere of on-site delivery is active. Most of the products are delivered according to orders, while the downstream is mainly on the wait-and-see.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the market of activated carbon is normal, the market lacks the support of good news, and the short-term price of activated carbon may be dominated by shock finishing.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market in February was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85%.

In February, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was mainly stable. The equipment of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was running stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was tight, the goods on the site were in general, and the price trend on the site was temporarily stable. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still more production stoppages in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

In February, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid dropped slightly. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2000 yuan / ton, down 0.83% from 2016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shanxi Xinghua quoted 1900 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2200 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is general. In January, the price trend of nitric acid market dropped slightly, and the price of raw nitric acid dropped, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In February, the price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market was slightly lower than that in the beginning of the month, which was 3350 yuan / ton by the end of the month, down 0.99% from 3383.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic liquid ammonia market has slightly recovered, and the main decline stage is mainly concentrated in the first ten days of this month. The main reason is that the downstream manufacturers have holidays and the purchase is shelved, which brings great pressure on the supply in the northern region. With the resumption of production by some manufacturers in the latter half of the year, the amount of ammonia increased and the price gradually recovered. From the downstream perspective, in the off-season of agricultural fertilizer use, the terminal does not take delivery of the goods, there is no market in many places, the market price of liquid ammonia drops slightly, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable in February.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials has a certain supporting role. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community think that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fluctuate in the later stage.