1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community’s bulk list, the bromine price is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 57600 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 55900 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 2.95% and a year-on-year increase of 30.76%. On August 18, the bromine commodity index was 196.84, down 1.41 points from yesterday, down 19.72% from the highest point 245.18 (October 27, 2021) in the cycle, and up 234.08% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of bromine in Shandong enterprises is about 55000-56000 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is weak this week. However, the overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is general recently, the market transaction is light, and the shipment of bromine enterprises is under pressure. The attitude of the operators is pessimistic, and the atmosphere in the venue is general.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price is temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend is 1153.33 yuan / ton, down 34.34% year-on-year. The domestic sulfur market is mainly stable, and the price trend is stable but small. The sulfur sales of refineries in Shandong Province are acceptable. The manufacturers are expected to wait and see the sulfur market according to their own inventory and shipment.

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine is in a weak position in the near future. Although the bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine is relatively weak in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties are in a game, and the price is down. It is expected that the short-term price of bromine will be in a weak position. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12000 yuan / ton on August 8, and the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 11433 yuan / ton on August 14. The price of caprolactam fell by 4.72% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam continued to fall this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to drop, and the cost support of caprolactam weakened. The downstream demand is poor, and caprolactam is mainly purchased on demand. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses and the operating rate decreased. As of August 14, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13200 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was self drawn.

Raw material pure benzene continued to decline this week. On the cost side, crude oil rose as a whole this week, which has a certain support for pure benzene. On the supply side, the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage are restarted in succession, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later stage. The import cargo increased, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 7000 tons to 31000 tons compared with last week. On the demand side, most of the downstream are in deficit, the shutdown of the unit has decreased significantly, the operating rate has decreased as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene has weakened. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the caprolactam analysts of business society, the current caprolactam market is dominated by bad news and the price continues to decline. Both the cost side and the demand side are depressed, and the declining market continues. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

Last week (August 8-14), the raw material cost was low, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the price of nylon filament fell sharply. The supporting role of the cost side continues to weaken. The supply of nylon fiber manufacturers is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment. It is difficult to trade at high prices in the market. The demand of the downstream end market is flat, and the overall market production and sales are flat.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d / 24F)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of nylon filament fell sharply last week (August 8-14). As of August 14, the price of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) was 15775 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 825 yuan / ton and a weekly drop of 4.95%. Nylon DTY (premium product; 70D / 24F) was quoted at 18200 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton this week, down 4.71% this week. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40d / 12F) is 18825 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 850 yuan / ton and a weekly drop of 4.32%.

Upstream raw material Market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Cost side: last week (August 8-14), the market price of raw material caprolactam continued to fall, and the spot price was running at a low level. The price fell from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11433 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 4.72%. The terminal demand is in the low season. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses, the operating rate declined, the market was dominated by bad news, the price continued to decline, the cost side and the demand side were both depressed, and the decline continued. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand: since the end of June, the terminal demand has not improved at present. The terminal customers just need to follow up, and the downstream weaving factories are not active in purchasing. Some customers are more focused on sales and production, and mainly consume raw material inventory in the short term; The on-site supply of goods remains sufficient. Although some manufacturers have production reduction expectations, the on-site supply of goods remains sufficient.

In general, the nylon market trend is weak and downward, the upstream raw material market is expected to decline in a narrow range, the supporting role of the cost side is weakened, the supply in the field remains stable, the downstream end market is affected by the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, and the actual trading atmosphere in the field is flat.

Future forecast

Nylon filament has a weak supporting role on the cost side, sufficient supply of goods, and the demand side continues to be weak. There is not too much positive feedback at the terminal, and the market is mainly negative. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the price will continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price dropped slightly this week. The urea price dropped from 2426.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2348.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.22%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%. On August 14, the urea commodity index was 109.21, which was the same as yesterday, down 28.31% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 96.42% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week.

According to the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has increased slightly, from 6466.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7026.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 8.66%, a year-on-year increase of 31.16% over the same period of last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 7233.33 yuan / ton.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is insufficient. Agricultural demand has basically ended. The rubber plate factory is generally started and mainly needs to purchase. Compound fertilizer enterprises continued to wait and see, and began to purchase one after another at the weekend. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers have overhauled, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Urea price may rise slightly

In the middle and late August, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. The urea analyst of business community believes that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The agricultural demand in the downstream is weakened, the industrial demand is just increased, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recent urea or narrow range fluctuation rise is the main trend.

This week, the zinc price fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 15, the zinc price was 24984 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from 24500 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. This week, the zinc price rose first and then fell. The fear of supply shortage caused the zinc price to rise sharply. The macroeconomic environment affected the poor demand and the zinc price fell rapidly.

High energy prices cause supply shortage concerns

According to the latest data released by Glencore, the company produced 350900 tons of zinc ingots in the first half of this year, a decrease of 12% – 47500 tons compared with the first half of 2021. Glencore has warned that the energy crisis in Europe has posed a substantial threat to supply, and the company has suspended the operation of a zinc smelter in Europe. At the same time, the company’s other smelters in the region are hardly profitable. Although the demand for industrial metals is facing increasing risks, the European power crisis has seriously affected the supply prospects. After Glencore’s financial report was released overnight, the zinc price of LME soared by 8.5%, the largest intraday increase since March. The fear of supply shortage in zinc market has intensified, which has stimulated the sharp rise of zinc price and increased the driving force of zinc market.

The macro economy is weak and the demand of zinc market is declining

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7946.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. From January to July, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8591.94 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The newly started area of houses was 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 559.19 million square meters, down 36.8%. The completed area of houses was 320.28 million square meters, down 23.3%. The real estate market is in full decline, the macroeconomic environment is weak, the demand of zinc market is expected to decline, and the rise of zinc market is not supported enough.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the continuous energy crisis in Europe and the growing concern about the supply shortage in the international zinc market have played a certain role in supporting the rise of zinc price. However, the domestic demand for zinc has dropped significantly. Although the national infrastructure stimulus policies have been issued one after another, the lag of the policy impact and the expected impact of insufficient demand have limited room for zinc price rise in the future. It is expected that the high zinc price in the future will be adjusted in a wide range.

Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic vitamin C price is temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C is stable at 31 yuan / kg, without any rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic vitamin C market is running smoothly this week, and the current mainstream price of feed grade is 25-28 yuan / kg. In the peak season of enterprise maintenance, the market supply was tightened and the price began to firm.

Upstream: corn prices fluctuated and fell. It is expected that during the first half of August, the corn price in the main production areas will mainly keep a stable trend of grinding the bottom, and the local market will have a bullish trend, but most regions will maintain a generally stable trend. In the short term, the market still lacks the foundation to support the sharp rise and fall of the market.

This week, the price of vitamin a stopped falling and stabilized. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A is 120-130 yuan / ton, and the European market price is 42-45 euros / kg. As the domestic mainstream factories are undergoing maintenance, the market supply is reduced, and there is a strong atmosphere of price support in the market. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

The price of vitamin E dropped slightly this week. The weekly average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 83.33 yuan / kg, and the weekend average price was 83 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.4%. The European market price this week was 9.0-9.4 euros / kg, down from last week. The off-season is light, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers, and the price is flexibly adjusted.

Future forecast

According to the vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community, the overall bottom of the vitamin market has been consolidated, and individual varieties have started to show an upward trend. We should pay close attention to market information and enterprise production and sales dynamics.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic adipic acid continued to decline this week (8.1-5), with a decline of 1.03% this week. The mainstream quotation in East China market fell by 100-200 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid was 9500-9700 yuan / ton. On the one hand, crude oil fluctuates, the upward momentum is weak, pure benzene continues to fall, cyclohexanone, cyclohexane and other products decline deeper, and the negative impact on the cost side is intensified. In addition, the manufacturer has high inventory pressure, constantly reducing load to balance negative profit, and weak market demand.

From the perspective of market supply, the adipic acid operation rate this week slightly decreased compared with the previous week, and is currently maintained at about 50%. At present, there is no information guidance on the supply side. The inventory pressure of the manufacturer is still prominent. The weak market demand leads to a decline in supply and the profit of the manufacturer is inverted.

Trend of adipic acid industry chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is still relatively weak this week. The upstream products pure benzene, cyclohexanone and cyclohexane all dropped to varying degrees, adipic acid remained weak, the trading center shifted significantly downward, and the manufacturer’s profits were inverted, maintaining a negative profit range. In addition, the downstream PA66 slightly stopped falling this week, but did not rebound, and the terminal remained at a weak level.

Market trend of adipic acid upstream pure benzene

Market trend of cyclohexanone in adipic acid upstream

The support of upstream raw materials is insufficient, and the decline of pure benzene price is deepened this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene is 3.04%. The main factory of pure benzene has lowered the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a cumulative range of 700 yuan / ton. The inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased, and the overall supply of the spot market decreased. In addition, the inventory of East China port fell, and the spot quantity was small. The good supply side can not offset the bad demand brought by the slowdown. The prices of cyclohexanone and cyclohexane also dropped, at -0.99% and -0.36% respectively. It shows that the upstream cost still forms a negative pressure on adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish. The downstream purchase volume decreases. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the PA66 in the lower reaches of adipic acid increased or decreased by 0% in the week. This week, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in a narrow range, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current end-user enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories is shrinking, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the shipping resistance of merchants is large. The transaction in the market is declining, and the seller is not in a good mood, and gradually tries to reduce the yield order. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that the decline of crude oil price will bring bad news to the chemical market, and the continuous decline of pure benzene price will suppress the downstream adipic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no favorable guidance on the supply side, and the order follow-up on the demand side is slow. Therefore, it is expected that the adipic acid market will still operate weakly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market fell this week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of August 5, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8133.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has further declined this week. Due to the weak support of raw material cost and the poor downstream demand, the propylene market is under pressure. The enterprises are not able to deliver goods, and the downstream customers mainly pay small bills, and the prices are seriously depressed. The enterprises are delivering goods, and the prices are successively lowered. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The supply of propylene market is loose. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price of propylene is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

The price of propylene fell, and the trend of crude oil was weak under the influence of many macro inflation. This week, the support of PP cost side weakened. In terms of industrial load, recently, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has dropped, the supply pressure of enterprises’ independent load reduction and maintenance diversion is partial, and the operation is biased to digest inventory. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory position rises instead of falling and is at a high level. At the same time, the on-site import sources increased synchronously, intensifying market competition. The purchase follow-up of the downstream factories of wire drawing materials is biased to just maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy at a low price and have a strong resistance to the high price supply. Traders gradually yield profits when shipping, and follow the market. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is at the off-season level, and it is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 5, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell after rising. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8166.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 3.73%. This week, the load of the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was maintained as a whole, and the demand and operation of end-users continued the off-season mode of large-scale enterprises maintaining production and small and medium-sized enterprises reducing the load. The product consumption is general, and there is no large-scale replenishment operation. During the week, the loss of wire drawing material capacity and the weak rigid demand pulled the market, causing the spot price to fluctuate. It is expected that the fiber market will stabilize in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the market of meltblown PP fell this week. As of August 5, the average price of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9400 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China is small, the pressure of epidemic prevention continues to decrease, medical meltblown cloth materials enter the off-season of consumption, the demand decreases, and the support for spot prices is not obvious. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will be mainly based on finishing and operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business news agency believe that: in early August, the domestic polypropylene market fluctuated downward, the raw material propylene market fell, the international crude oil also fell, and the support of PP cost end weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises develops slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market will continue to be in shock.

Price dynamics: on August 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8150 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8150 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8150 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 8050 yuan / ton, the quotation of HSBC Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 8053 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the US economic data is good, and the employment data shows strong growth, alleviating the negative sentiment of the economic recession on energy demand, and the oil price rises slightly.

Today, Weilian chemical reduced its pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton, and Jingbo Petrochemical reduced its pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton.

The cost side is weak; The decrease of centralized parking in the downstream reduces the demand for pure benzene; Sinopec has continuously lowered its listing price. The pure benzene market is in a bad mood and the price is down. Today, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined this week, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry declined slightly. On August 7, the rare earth index was 720 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 28.50% lower than the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 165.68% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

This week, the product prices in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of the mainstream praseodymium neodymium system in the rare earth market declined. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined slightly. As of August 8, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 802500 yuan / ton, and the price dropped by 6.14% this week; The price of neodymium metal was 1.015 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.58%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 805000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.85%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 754500 yuan / ton, down 4.49% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 920000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.15%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.095 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 5.19%. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market is declining, the recent downstream purchase is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises is deepened, and the purchasing intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles in the downstream is reduced, the demand for spot purchase is weak, and the market price continues to fall. There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand side, the purchase demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has dropped sharply. The number of active offers made by the separation enterprises in the field is reduced, and the purchase is cautious. The offers of the traders are active, and some merchants intend to sell goods at a profit. In addition, the purchasing intention of the metal factory is not high. The market trend of light rare earth continues to decline.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend in the market has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased significantly. In the recent period, the demand for new energy was general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has dropped. As of August 8, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.295 million yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.86% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.305 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 0.22%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.055 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.81% this week; This week, the price trend of terbium series dropped. The domestic price of terbium oxide was 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths has dropped slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchases according to demand, which makes the domestic market of heavy rare earths fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in light rare earth ore use areas in Sichuan and other places has decreased. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in light rare earth ore use areas. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be mild, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market has dropped slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industrial pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are all + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earths will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock and mineral type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic type rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increase will be concentrated on light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. In the long term, the domestic rare earth market will still be supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal plants, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government introduces policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the terminal will be boosted in the later period. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the downstream procurement is not active in the short term, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to fall. However, in the long term, the rare earth industry still has support.