According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 9, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16800 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16950 yuan/ton on December 4, 2022, the price decreased by 150 yuan/ton, or 0.88%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.04-12.09), the overall domestic silicone DMC market was weak and running downward. Although the end of the year is approaching, the demand for organic silicon downstream is still generally boosted. This week, the factory as a whole has once again delivered goods at a small margin. During the week, the market price of organic silicon DMC dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, there is still a game between the supply and demand side of organic silicon DMC, and the overall operating rate on the site is also at a low level. As of December 9, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was around 16600-17200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At the end of the year, the organosilicon DMC factory was under pressure and gave way to profits, which can be said to be “full of sincerity”. The organosilicon DMC data engineer of the business community believed that it was expected that in the early Spring Festival, the downstream stock purchase would also be started one after another, the trading atmosphere of the organosilicon DMC would be somewhat warmer, and the market price was expected to stabilize and rise slightly. More attention should be paid to the changes of the information on the supply and demand side after the specific trend.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8417 yuan/ton on December 5, and the average price was 8370 yuan/ton on December 9, with a decline of 0.56% during the period, 0.51% lower than that on December 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9283 yuan/ton on December 5 and 9283 yuan/ton on December 9. The quotation was stable during this period, down 0.54% compared with December 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8400 yuan/ton on December 5, and 8400 yuan/ton on December 9. The quotation was stable during this period, which was the same as that on December 1.

Polyethylene prices fell weakly this week, among which LLDPE fell significantly; LDPE prices remained stable after price reduction on Monday; HDPE quotation was stable. The weak crude oil price depressed the domestic polyethylene market. Some enterprises have shut down their equipment for maintenance, and the supply of polyethylene products has decreased. The domestic epidemic prevention and control policy has been relaxed, and the logistics and transportation have been eased, but the downstream demand is not good, and the orders of enterprises have decreased.

Supply side: The maintenance devices will resume work next week, and the supply side is expected to recover. On the demand side, the market mainly purchases on demand. Affected by domestic public events, the market was pessimistic in the future. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week. The price was 6640 yuan/ton on December 2 and 6210 yuan/ton on Friday (December 9), down 6.48% from last week; 7.25% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Although the demand for gasoline has improved slightly due to the relaxation of the epidemic policy, the crude oil continued to fall during the week, the cost side depressed the market mentality, and toluene continued to decline this week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (December 8), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 714 US dollars/ton, down 63 US dollars/ton year on year, or 8.11%.

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere this week. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, and the U.S. oil product inventory increased significantly. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained. As of December 9, Brent price fell by 9.47 dollars/barrel, or 11.07%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 8.96 US dollars/barrel, or 11.2%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week. On December 2, the price was 17233 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 17067 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from last week and up 16.7% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, the domestic PX price continued to decline this week. On December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 7450 yuan/ton, down 10.24% from last week and up 11.19% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fell continuously this week. On December 2, the price was 7836 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 7653 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from last week and 2.97% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the global economic recession and weakening energy demand, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The fundamentals of the toluene market are poor, lacking substantial positive support, and the short-term cost is difficult to change. It is expected that toluene will continue to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 55% of domestic powdered monoammonium was 3466 yuan/ton on December 5, and 3550 yuan/ton on December 9. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate rose 2.40%.

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% of domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3866 yuan/ton on December 5, and 3900 yuan/ton on December 9. The market price of diammonium phosphate rose 0.86% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise this week. The price of raw sulfur rose and the cost side was favorable. The quotation of the enterprise is firm, the downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the high price transaction is limited. The price of diammonium phosphate rose this week. The market supply is tight, the supply of goods is low, and the price of diammonium is firm. Most manufacturers suspend quotation, mainly issuing advance orders in the early stage. As of December 9, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered monoammonium in Hubei is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton, that in Sichuan is about 3550 yuan/ton, and that in Henan is about 3550 yuan/ton, which is mainly based on actual negotiation. 64% of the diammonium market in Shandong Province quoted 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and 64% of the diammonium market in Yunnan Province quoted 3900-4000 yuan/ton when arriving in North China. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week. On December 9, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1513 yuan/ton. The sulfur quotation of refinery enterprises in Shandong is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1430-1680 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1380-1550 yuan/ton. The terminal phosphate fertilizer winter storage market has been actively promoted, the demand for market procurement has increased, the manufacturers have been actively shipping, the market delivery is smooth, and the short-term sulfur market is forced.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market this week was generally stable. Near the end of the year, some mining enterprises have closed their mines and stopped mining. The overall supply of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in the site is still tight. The price of some mining enterprises in Guizhou has been implemented until the end of the year, and the overall news of phosphorus ore is relatively calm. As of December 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market price is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the current operating rate of ammonium phosphate is at a low level, and the on-site supply is tight. The price of raw materials rose and the cost support was good. It is expected that the ammonium phosphate market will continue to rise steadily in the short term under the support of raw materials, tight supply and waiting for development.

In November 2022, the domestic coal tar production price fluctuated broadly in the first half of the month, and narrowed in the second half. The price at the beginning of the month was 6512.5 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6507.5 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 0.08%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise. The price fell sharply in early November, and then recovered slightly.

On November 28, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 224.40, unchanged from yesterday, 3.05% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and 375.93% higher than the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In November 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi Province rose slightly as a whole. In the first half of the specific market, the price dropped significantly, while in the second half, the price fluctuated narrowly.

Narrow price fluctuation in downstream deep processing industry

Demand: The deep processing industry of coal tar is the main application field of high-temperature coal tar. The main commodities obtained from deep processing include naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, asphalt, etc. At present, the deep processing industry is slightly more resistant to the high price of coal tar, but there is still a demand for procurement. According to the business community, coal tar deep processing enterprises are still profitable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level for a long time. As the tar price returns to a high consolidation trend, the price fluctuation of downstream deep processing related commodities is not obvious, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance.

At the end of the last bidding in November 25, the price of coal tar still kept a narrow fluctuation. The mainstream price in Shandong was 6400-6430 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was 6420-6450 yuan/ton, and that in Shanxi was 6450-6550 yuan/ton. The price difference between regions was small. At present, the tar and deep processing markets maintained a weak balance between supply and demand. In terms of supply, the production restriction of coking enterprises is still strong, the overall supply of tar is slightly tight, and the automobile transportation in some areas is blocked, the transportation is limited, and the sales of coking enterprises are active.

In the future market, the business community believed that the operating rate of tar production enterprises in the fourth quarter was expected to decline seasonally, the supply of coal tar was expected to be tight, and downstream enterprises are currently purchasing on demand, and the actual demand remains. Under the general environment of tight supply and fair demand, it is expected that the coal tar price will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, but due to the resistance of downstream deep processing enterprises to high priced raw materials, the overall room for improvement may be limited.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market fell first and then rose this month. The price of potassium chloride fell from 3833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3683.33 yuan/ton on November 18, a drop of 3.91%, and then rose to 3883.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a rise of 5.43%. On November 29, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.19, unchanged from yesterday, 29.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 5.67% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride dealers rose slightly this month: the arrival price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 3660-3880 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3600-3700 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3500-3600 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose this month. The price fell from 9250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9225.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.27%, 13.89% higher than the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6162.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5875.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 4.67%, up 1.29% year-on-year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of December may rise slightly, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger is stable, mainly based on contracts. The price of imported potassium chloride rose slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is increasing, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand is mainly procurement. The price of potassium chloride may rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PC market was weak and volatile at the end of November and early December, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in tandem. As of December 5, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 17,950 yuan/ton, up or down 0% weekly.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure above that bisphenol A continued to fall last week, and the price has gradually approached the cost line. The continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. Pure benzene negotiation fell, and the long-term holding intention was not strong, and the shipment intention was relatively large. The offer fell. After the price reduction of bisphenol A, buyers did not enter the market enough, and the market remained sluggish, dragging down the cost of PC.

In terms of supply: Last week, the utilization rate of PC capacity increased, and the total load of domestic PC enterprises was about 56%. There are many inspections at the end of the year, but the pressure on the supply side will rise in the short term. In addition, the slow flow of goods on the market hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing.

Demand: PC terminal enterprises started at a low position last week, and just needed to maintain production when getting goods. The operators have an empty mind and keep a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The actual orders are mainly scattered.

Future market forecast

Last week, the PC market fluctuated, the upstream bisphenol A was weak and difficult to change, and the support for PC cost collapsed. The load of domestic polymerization plants rebounded and the pressure on the supply side increased. On the whole, there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation market in the near future.

Aluminum price rose 5.13% on November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on November 30 was 18983.33 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from 19273.33 yuan/ton on November 18. However, according to the monthly data, the current price is 5.13% higher than the price at the beginning of the month.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton, up 8.79% from the recent recovery (July 14, 2022).

Macro positive

1. The National Bureau of Statistics released data and preliminarily calculated that the gross domestic product in the first three quarters was 87,026.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% at constant prices, 0.5 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. On a month on month basis, GDP grew by 3.9% in the third quarter.

2. Terminal demand. According to the data of the Passenger Association, China’s retail sales of generalized passenger cars in October increased by 7.2% year on year. In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 556000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month on month decrease of 9.0%. From January to October, a trend was formed. The real estate policy has many advantages. The real estate policy has good news.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, due to environmental protection, cost and other problems in the heating season in the north, the output of about 100000 tons has been reduced slightly, but Sichuan, Guangxi and other real estates can continue to repair. At present, Sichuan has recovered about 30%, and the operating capacity is 360000 tons. Therefore, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply in November was generally stable, with a small increase. At present, the domestic electrolytic operation capacity has increased by about 270000 tons to 40.61 million tons compared with the beginning of November. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in November (30 days) is about 3.337 million tons, up 8.8% year on year.

In terms of inventory: according to the statistics of inventory in mainstream areas, it is still at the level of more than 500000 tons. On November 28, 2022, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum will be 516000 tons, 2000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 97000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 498000 tons less than that of the same period last year.

In terms of demand, the aluminum price fell at the end of the month, mainly due to soft demand. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises fell 0.8 percentage points month on month to 66.3%.

On the overseas side, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reduced by about 2 million tons due to the energy crisis or maintenance strike. However, within the month, LME decided not to take further measures against RUSAL, which eased supply concerns.

Future market forecast

On the one hand, the aluminum price in November was boosted by the positive release of real estate policies in the terminal market, on the other hand, the pace of interest rate increase in the United States slowed down, the US dollar index fell back to a high level, and the nonferrous metal sector recovered as a whole. The overall aluminum price is rising and recovering. At present, low inventory has a certain support for aluminum price, but the terminal is gradually entering the low consumption season. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises may gradually decline, and the inventory may increase. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively stable, and the probability of sideways trading is expected to increase.

In November, the domestic fluorite price continued to rise. As of the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the month beginning price of 3175 yuan/ton. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: The production of enterprises in the north is gradually stopped due to the decline of temperature

The operating rate of the domestic supply side has declined. On the one hand, the backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and on the other hand, the mineral survey work is still full of difficulties in terms of new mines. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. On the other hand, as the temperature drops, fluorite enterprises in the north gradually stop working, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, due to the severe epidemic in some areas, fluorite transportation is difficult, fluorite supply is very tight, and the supply of fluorite is difficult to obtain. The price of fluorite continues to rise.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

The price trend of the downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose sharply. As of the end of the month, the price of the hydrofluoric acid market was 12242.86 yuan/ton, 10.30% higher than the price of 11100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid rose. Some enterprises reported that the supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. The price rise of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of the fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has declined slightly, the trichloroethylene price has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The R134a trading center has declined slightly. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain. As a result, the fluorite market price has risen.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises have entered a production suspension period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a high mood to stock up. New energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the long-term demand for fluorite. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite market to rise in December.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in November, the domestic adipic acid market went down unilaterally, mainly due to negative cost and imbalance between supply and demand. The market price range of adipic acid at the end of the month was 9600-9900 yuan/ton. Adipic acid dropped 7.40% in the whole month.

Adipic acid industry chain

Adipic acid industry chain fell across the board this month. The upstream raw materials of adipic acid declined significantly, especially the drop of pure benzene and cyclohexane was heavy, both exceeding 10%. The downstream PA66 also dropped significantly, nearly 8%. The terminal demand was sluggish, which reduced the shipment speed of adipic acid. The whole industrial chain resonates downward.

Cost side

On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid has basically the same trend as the upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene has gone out of the first up and then down market. Petrochemical manufacturers have repeatedly lowered the guidance price this month, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1000 yuan. On the one hand, the pressure on the supply side is heavy, and the port inventory is high; On the other hand, the downstream demand slows down, and the substitution of low price of hydrogenated benzene for goods has a negative impact on the market. According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene dropped by 11.9% from October 11 to the end of the month.

Supply side

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the supplier settlement price was introduced, and generally low price settlement was adopted; In addition, the listing of Shandong Dachang was lowered for three times at the beginning, middle and end of the month, with a cumulative range of 2000 yuan. The supplier’s low price shipment brought heavy pressure on the market. From the perspective of the operating rate, the operating rate of this month remained around 60%, slightly higher than that of last month.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid is strong, and the rigid demand is the main demand. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in November, at 7.92%. The spot supply was stable and abundant, causing the social inventory to rise. Especially the bad news on the demand side. When the traditional peak season ends, the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is further reduced, and the resistance to high price goods is strong. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the price drops again and again. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 24000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil continues to be weak, and pure benzene continues to decline, which makes it difficult to benefit the cost side in the short term. At the end of the supply side maintenance month, some devices have joined the maintenance team, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. However, the demand side will not change the downturn in the short term, and the supply and demand game will continue. On the basis of comprehensive consideration, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the settlement price at the end of the month.