1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1092 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1060 yuan/ton. The price fell 2.93%, and the price rose 7.61% compared with the same period last year. The caustic soda commodity index on February 12 was 152.52, which was the same as yesterday, down 42.55% from the highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 134.25% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 940-1080 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1030-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The inventory of the enterprise is relatively sufficient. The downstream of caustic soda is mainly purchased on demand, and the caustic soda lacks favorable support.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), there were 2 commodities that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 0 commodities that rose or fell. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (1.10%) and hydrochloric acid (0.65%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 2.93%), PVC (- 0.57%) and calcium carbide (- 0.45%). This week’s average rise and fall was -0.44%%.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has declined, the downstream alumina procurement is general, the trading atmosphere is relatively light, and the inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient. Now, the majority of caustic soda enterprises are based on demand, and it is comprehensively estimated that the latter stage of caustic soda will be dominated by weak operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol rose from 10233.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 6.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 40.05% year-on-year. The commodity index of neopentyl glycol on February 12 was 52.37, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.45% from the highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22) in the cycle, and up 21.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol rose slightly.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8566.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.63%. There is a downward trend over the weekend. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late February, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fall slightly. The market price of isobutyraldehyde in the upstream rose slightly and the cost support increased, but the price had a downward trend at the weekend. The downstream paint market is general, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other factors, and the market price may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, this week (2.6-2.10), the NMP market was consolidated and operated horizontally, and the average price of electronic NMP was stable at 22666 yuan/ton, with no increase or decrease.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic electronic NMP market was 21000-22000 yuan/ton. This week, the NMP market operated steadily, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was not high, and the manufacturers were weak in pushing up. The cost side support is general, the market consolidation and trading atmosphere is light, and the market needs better guidance.

As of February 10, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ February 3rd

East China/ 21000-22000 yuan/ton

Central China/ 21000-22000 yuan/ton

Southwest China/ 21000-21500 yuan/ton

Raw materials: BDO market stabilized after rising this week. Recently, the market lacks clear guidance, and many operators enter the market to wait and see. Some factories released the overhaul news, but the boost to gas buying was limited; The downstream inquiry atmosphere is general.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

NMP analysts from the Business Agency believe that the current NMP market is stable in supply and demand, and weak in buying gas, which leads to insufficient driving force. In the short term, the NMP market is expected to maintain stable operation without significant rise and fall in raw materials.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 6, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of January 28, 2023. Compared with June 15, 2022 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 1043 yuan/ton), the price increased by 13 yuan/ton, or 1.21%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the return of the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 will temporarily stabilize the domestic phosphorus ore market. The downstream demand of phosphate rock is relatively slow to open, the overall news of the phosphate rock market is relatively calm, and the phosphate rock industry is multi-dimensional with the pre-festival quotation. As of February 6, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the raw ore specification and the powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated on a real basis.

Prediction and analysis of the future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the phosphorus ore market is relatively quiet. However, with the arrival of the spring planting season, the downstream demand will gradually recover. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

From January 27 to February 3, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price of 78250 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 81500 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.15%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, remained flat for seven consecutive weeks, the price began to decline continuously at the end of October, and slightly recovered after the end of December.

European strategic small metal antimony price this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ January 27/ February 3/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12600./12700./+100

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was temporarily stable, and the price was at $11500/ton as of January 6, which was temporarily stable during the week, which had a certain boost to market sentiment.

After the holiday, the antimony market rose broadly, the price continued to rise, and the market trading was relatively active, about a week earlier than the market recovery in previous years. Affected by the holiday, the supply continued to be in short supply, which magnified the problem of tight supply at the mine end. Under the superposition of double shortages, the market mentality was boosted, and prices continued to rise. In terms of demand, driven by the current market atmosphere, the market is active in trading, inquiry is active, and the export situation is expected to improve, and the actual transaction in the market is significantly improved. In the future, the price of antimony ingot will remain stable, medium and strong in the future, under the expectation of tight supply and improved demand.

Antimony oxide price trend this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ January 27/ February 3/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./69500./73000./+3500

99.8% antimony trioxide./70500./74500./+4000

This week, the antimony oxide market rose broadly, the market turnover was significantly improved, the supply of raw materials was tight, and the downstream market procurement was more active than in the early stage. Under the expectation of export improvement, the market was stronger.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased from 10533.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10666.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.27%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 11.60% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on February 5 was 78.43, which was the same as yesterday, down 42.96% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 123.13% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is better

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7670.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7538.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.73%, down 2.74% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The price of DOP rose from 10220.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10710.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.79%, down 6.26% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers actively increased their purchase of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In the middle and late February, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and cost support weakened. Downstream DOP market has a downward trend, and downstream demand has weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9025 yuan/ton on January 1, and the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9008 yuan/ton on January 31. The domestic thermal phosphoric acid price fell 0.18% this month.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 9116 yuan/ton on January 31. The domestic wet-process phosphoric acid price rose 1.67% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the phosphoric acid market was shaken and put into operation. At the beginning of January, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was adjusted and operated, and the cost side did not change much. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises of phosphoric acid successively shut down for holidays, and terminal procurement decreased. The phosphoric acid market is stagnant, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. After the festival, the phosphoric acid market gradually recovered, the raw material yellow phosphorus was traded flat, the trend was weak, and the cost side support was poor. As of January 31, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8700-9100 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is about 9200 yuan/ton, and that in Hubei is about 9100 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 8350-9500 yuan/ton.

Market of raw phosphate rock. This month, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable at a high level. There is no significant fluctuation in the price of phosphate rock in the field, and the overall market is in high consolidation operation. As of January 31, the reference price of domestic phosphorus ore was 1056 yuan/ton.

Yellow phosphorus market. Yellow phosphorus prices were lowered in January. This month, the manufacturers had a lot of maintenance, and in the first half of the month, the preparation of the yellow phosphorus market before the festival was basically completed. Many downstream and traders have started to take holidays. There are plans to shut down during the Spring Festival, and there is no purchase plan for yellow phosphorus in the short term. After the Spring Festival holiday in the second half of the month, the market has just recovered. It is prudent to take the goods and wait and see. It mainly supplies pre-holiday orders, but the new orders are limited. Up to now, the yellow phosphorus quotations in Guizhou and Sichuan are mostly in the range of 31000-32000 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society believe that the raw material yellow phosphorus market was adjusted down this month, and the cost support was general. At present, the downstream should be cautious and wait and buy as needed. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will stagnate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the cost side.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 30, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 14875.00 yuan/ton. In January, the PMMA market was stable and the price remained unchanged. At present, the mainstream market price was 15000 yuan/ton. At present, the overall market supply and demand of PMMA was balanced.

In January, the domestic PMMA market as a whole operated smoothly, with limited price fluctuation. The mainstream price was 15000 yuan/ton. The operating rate was stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the manufacturer gave up the profit and took the order. The enterprise quoted: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: The rubber and plastic index stood at 678 points on January 29, up 3 points from yesterday, down 36.04% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 28.41% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of Business Agency believe that PMMA is expected to run smoothly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable, while the domestic rare earth market is weak and stable. The rare earth index was 673 points on January 15, down 33.17% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 148.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium oxide in China is stable, and the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium rose slightly. As of the 16th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 877500 yuan/ton, up 0.29% this week; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 720000 yuan/ton, up 0.35%; The price of neodymium oxide is 790000 yuan/ton, which is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 967500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium metal is 935000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide was 705000 yuan/ton, and the price trend was stable this week.

The domestic light rare earth market inquiry list is cold, and the downstream magnetic material enterprises have basically completed the stock preparation before the festival, and have started to take holidays. In addition, the logistics has been suspended in succession, the demand of the downstream magnetic material enterprises is weakening, and the production enterprises are in general condition. Recently, the downstream purchasing sentiment has weakened, resulting in the scarcity of orders, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly stable.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell slightly, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.455 million yuan/ton as of the 16th, and the price fell by 1.80% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.45 million yuan/ton, down 1.41%; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.21 million yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of domestic terbium is mainly stable. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.9 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.55 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth decreased slightly. The stock of raw materials of separation enterprises in the areas where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places increased, the production enterprises started normally, the downstream procurement was scarce, and the market price declined slightly. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price decline in the heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in December 2022, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.383 million and 2.556 million, respectively, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in production and a month-on-month increase of 9.7% in sales, and a year-on-year decline of 18.2% and 8.4% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 795000 and 814000 respectively, up 51.8% year on year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the demand in the new energy field is still supported, and the domestic rare earth market price trend is stable.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of the rare earth industry are sustainable development. Recently, the downstream businesses have gradually taken a holiday. In the short term, the price of the rare earth market is mainly stable. In the long term, the demand for rare earth is still guaranteed, and the development of the rare earth industry is optimistic.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell first and then rose this week. As of January 13, the spot nickel quotation was 219616 yuan/ton, down 1.56% from the beginning of the week and up 31.85% year on year.

Weekly rise and fall chart of nickel

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, the nickel price rose by 7 and fell by 5 in the past 12 weeks, and fell back after the recent strength of the nickel price.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, CPI rose 6.5% year-on-year in December 2022, which was in line with market expectations, and the increase was the smallest since October 2021; The month-on-month decline was 0.1%, the first month-on-month decline in two and a half years. In December 2022, the core CPI rose 5.7% year-on-year, the lowest level since December 2021. Federal Reserve Huck said it was time to adjust the rate increase to 25 basis points in the future.

In terms of supply and demand: short-term nickel plate resources at the supply side are still tight. Under the demand of alloy enterprises for pre-holiday stock, Jinchuan nickel premium is relatively strong, and the current market activity is generally low. But at present, the pure nickel import window is open. Since the opening of the pure nickel import window in early November, many import traders have difficulties in importing, and the import resources are mainly based on consumption of inventory. After the opening of the import window, the shortage of pure nickel is expected to improve in the short term. The production reduction of consumer-end steel mills is expected to increase in January, and the market has a strong atmosphere of waiting for holidays and weak demand.

To sum up, macroeconomic optimism drives metals. LME will take measures to restore confidence in the metal market. However, nickel fundamentals are poor. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate.