Stable supply and demand, Shandong cyclohexanone market consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 6th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 7300 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1st, the price was basically the same, but decreased by 4.42% compared with May 1st (cyclohexanone price reference).

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From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong region remained stable and organized, with relatively calm news on the market. As of June 6th, the reference price of cyclohexanone market in Shandong region is around 7250-7350 yuan per ton.
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply of cyclohexanone in the field is relatively stable, and downstream users mainly follow up on their basic needs. The transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable
In terms of cost: Recently, the cost of cyclohexanone raw material pure benzene has fluctuated slightly, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. As of June 5th, the reference price of pure benzene was 5818.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% compared to June 1st (5735.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and downstream chemical fiber and solvent markets are purchasing on demand. Macro news has given the market some confidence boost. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

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The market situation of maleic anhydride is weak

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been weak recently. As of June 4th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from 6525.00 yuan/ton on May 28th.

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Supply side: Recently, the price of maleic anhydride has reached an annual low, with factory prices slightly falling and dealer prices falling accordingly; After the holiday, downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride are cautious in their stocking operations and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. As of June 4th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5450 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has fallen, and as of June 4th, the price in Shandong was around 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Currently, the price of unsaturated resin remains stable, but after the holiday, the raw material market for unsaturated resin has fallen, and the cost support for resin is limited. In addition, with the gradual increase in market supply, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and support for unsaturated resin is limited. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

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Summary of Pure Benzene Trends in May (May 1-30, 2025)

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen this month. The market price drops in the first half of the year, rises in the middle, and falls in the second half. On May 1st, the price was 5708.67 yuan/ton; On May 30th, the price was 5752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: Today, the price performance of the pure benzene market was weak. Last night, crude oil prices fell, and the mentality of pure benzene market operators weakened. In addition, the styrene futures market fell, and the atmosphere in the market was poor, which affected the confidence of the pure benzene market. Shandong Refining will continue to prioritize discounted shipments today. East China ports continue to accumulate inventory, with prices fluctuating and falling. Overall, businesses are cautious and adhere to buying at low prices, filling gaps at low prices, and paying more attention to buying opportunities at low prices.
This month, Sinopec has raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan/ton to 5950 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On May 29th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $60.94 per barrel, a decrease of $0.90 or 1.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $63.35 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 or 1.2%.
On May 29th, FOB Korea rose by 14 to 714 US dollars per ton, CFR China rose by 13 to 730 US dollars per ton, FOB Rotterdam stabilized at 695 US dollars per ton, and FOB USG fell by 11 to 255 US cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: In the short term, the market price of pure benzene will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and we will wait and see the news on the cost and demand sides. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

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PVC surged and fell in May, and may continue to be weak in the later stage

1、 Price trend

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in May, with a brief rebound in the mid month market and a return to the downward channel in the late month. As of May 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% for the whole month.
2、 Market analysis
In the first half of this month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month. In the middle of the month, due to favorable macroeconomic policy expectations, futures market prices began to rebound, and spot prices followed suit, but the rebound was only short-lived. In the second half of the month, the market once again fell into a downturn, and the downward trend continued until the end of the month.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the weak performance of upstream crude oil and ethylene, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the overall volatility and decline of the spot PVC market are the main factors. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. On the supply and demand side, the operating rate remains high, production continues to increase, and there is a slight oversupply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of May 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4720 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide has continued to decline since May. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide has dropped by 2.44% since May. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. In addition, after some maintenance is completed, production continues to rebound, and the summer season is approaching the rainy season, which may have a certain impact on seasonal demand. There is also an impact of policy uncertainty in the medium and long term. The PVC pressure is still relatively high in the later stage. It is expected that PVC prices will remain weak in the short term.

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The price of activated carbon fell in May

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12033 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12333/ton, with a price increase of 2.49%.

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Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have seen some price increases this month, but most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification is between 10000-13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow. In addition, the number of newly built coconut shell carbonization plants in Indonesia, the Philippines and other places has surged, directly pushing up local raw material procurement prices.
In terms of imports and exports, China’s export volume of activated carbon in April was 32000 tons, an increase of 23% year-on-year and a decrease of 6% month on month. In terms of imports, the total amount of activated carbon imported domestically in April was 5147 tons. Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells in the world, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024: Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, and some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency.
Prediction: With the combination of favorable factors in the domestic and international activated carbon markets, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

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Downstream trend weak, butadiene market slightly lowered

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated downward this week. From May 19th to 26th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11337.50 yuan/ton to 10700 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.62% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market fluctuated downward during this cycle, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market weakened, resulting in weak market demand and a general weakening of the spot market mentality. In terms of supply and demand, the recent arrival of port cargo in East China has been good, and the overall market supply is relatively loose. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the butadiene market has been mainly weak this week. As of May 23, the self pickup price for container discharge in East China was between 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

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Cost aspect: The crude oil market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with an overall upward trend. As of May 22, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.20 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $64.44 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 10500 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 600 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 23, the market for butadiene rubber in the northwest region has slightly weakened. The futures price of butadiene rubber is weak and fluctuating, while the supply price of butadiene rubber is temporarily stable. Merchants are cautiously organizing their offers. At present, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 12120~12250 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Some butadiene plants in China have maintenance plans in the near future, and the market expects a slightly tight supply situation, which provides some support for the market mentality. However, the synthetic rubber market has been generally weak recently, and the overall demand for raw material butadiene procurement is weak. As the holiday approaches, there is some pre holiday stocking demand downstream, which may drive some upward space in the spot market, but overall it is relatively limited.

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The ethanol market is consolidating at a high level

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 19th to 23rd, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5374 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 2.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.60%. Domestic ethanol market prices are consolidating at a high level. Enterprises in the Northeast region continue to undergo rotation inspections, with low production rates and a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, without inventory pressure, prices may remain stable. The transaction situation in Henan region is still acceptable, with prices maintaining a high level of consolidation.

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In terms of cost, the price of corn fluctuates. The arrival volume of deep processed corn in Shandong and Hebei is still acceptable, and some enterprises have seen a narrow reduction in corn prices. Henan’s deep processing enterprises have generally received goods and prices have increased. Before the wheat harvest, grassroots grain points were able to monetize their shipments, but overall supply pressure was not significant. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
There are unlikely to be significant favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the demand for Baijiu fluctuates little, and the downstream stock of chemical industry needs to be replenished. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.
In the future, with stable supply and ongoing cost pressures, companies have a clear willingness to raise prices, and ethanol prices may remain stable. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

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DMF market prices remain stable mainly (5.12-5.16)

1、 Price trend

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According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4220 yuan/ton, and the DMF market remained stable this week.
2、 Market analysis
On the demand side: downstream demand is poor, shipments are slow, prices are trending downward, and there is a focus on essential purchases. Inventory pressure still exists, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced, with insufficient motivation for price increases.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will continue to operate steadily, with stability being the main focus.

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After the holiday, the market price of ammonium sulfate slightly decreased (5.5-5.9)

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on May 9th was 1073 yuan/ton, which was 0.31% lower than the average price of 1076 yuan/ton on May 5th.
2、 Market analysis
This week, there was a narrow adjustment in the domestic ammonium sulfate market price. The fluctuation of enterprise operating rate is not significant, and the main focus is on executing early orders. This week, the coking grade ammonium sulfate market remained stable, while the domestic grade ammonium sulfate saw a slight decline. At present, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, and more caution is being exercised, with a focus on replenishing urgently needed goods. As of May 9th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1040 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has slightly adjusted recently. At present, spot supply is tight and market demand is weakening. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in price.

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Poor demand leads to weak and declining urea market in April

1、 Price trend

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1875 yuan/ton, which is 6.02% lower than the reference average price of 1995 yuan/ton on April 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
The overall price of urea in the domestic market is weak and declining this month. On the supply side, the urea market has sufficient supply and inventory pressure remains. On the demand side, the demand for spring plowing is gradually slowing down, and downstream procurement is cautious. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has declined, and the demand for urea procurement has weakened.
market conditions
As of April 30th, the factory price of urea in Shandong is around 1770-1850 yuan/ton, in Hebei it is around 1830 yuan/ton, in Henan it is around 1850 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning it is around 1830 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from February 3, 2024 to April 21, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Domestic urea experienced a significant decline in April, with the largest drop being 2.34% in the week of April 14th.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has recently stopped falling and risen. The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment before the holiday has increased, and market transactions have improved. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly experience price consolidation in the short term.

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