This week (11.17-21), domestic liquid ammonia prices mainly stopped rising and fell back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.67%. The main reason is that environmental restrictions on production in some northern provinces are gradually being lifted, and some facilities have resumed operation, leading to an increase in supply. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2400-2580 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply has maintained a stable and increasing trend this week. Environmental protection production restrictions in northern regions have ended, and ammonia companies are gradually resuming production. In addition, the production of liquid ammonia in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan regions has not decreased, and prices have stopped rising and slightly decreased. Prices in the northwest, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia regions have significantly declined, while prices in the southwest region have slightly increased, with slight regional differentiation. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some enterprises in Shandong region have made downward adjustments, but the magnitude is not significant. The price adjustment range of large factories in Shandong region is generally within 100 yuan, and the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand. However, enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and the supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers remaining low and the phosphate fertilizer market weak, resulting in relatively weak demand. But urea shipments have increased recently, and prices have rebounded within the week. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase in urea prices was 1.53%. On the one hand, the reserves in Northeast China have increased, leading to an increase in demand. On the other hand, with the upcoming printing of labels, there is a growing demand in the market. Overall, domestic industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement and sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see attitude still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to be moderate next week, and the market may enter a period of oscillation. On the one hand, in the short term, the supply in some areas will remain stable, and the continued rise will be suppressed. On the other hand, there is currently no improvement in agricultural demand, and industrial demand remains weak. Therefore, it is expected that liquid ammonia will continue to struggle to rise, and adjustments will be the main focus in the later period.