According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated sharply recently. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 77233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.76% from last week, an increase of 8.27% month on month, and a decrease of 6.72%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 75500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.11% compared to last week, an increase of 7.4% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.09%.

Supply side disturbances become the dominant factor in short-term prices
In early August, Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo mining area in Yichun, Jiangxi (one of the largest lithium mica mines in China) ceased production on August 9th due to the expiration of its mining license, and it will take at least three months to resume production. This news became an important trigger for price rebound. ​
At the same time, the compliance rectification of lithium mines in Yichun area (8 mining enterprises are required to rectify within a time limit), the illegal mining and production stoppage of Zangge Mining, and the reduced production of Jiangte Electric Machinery due to maintenance, as well as the “anti internal competition” policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to eliminate low-priced and disorderly production capacity, have led to strong expectations of supply contraction in the market, driving prices to rise rapidly. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate once rebounded from 60000/ton to 80000/ton.
But the resumption of production of Yichun Silver Lithium by Jiangte Electric has broken this expectation. As an important enterprise in the field of mica lithium extraction, its resumption of production means that market supply will increase again, leading to a drop in lithium carbonate prices from 80000 yuan/ton to 70000 yuan/ton. The frequent changes on the supply side have led to significant price fluctuations in recent times.
The demand is steadily increasing, but the growth rate is not as fast as the supply
In August, the production of downstream positive electrode factories increased by 4% -5% month on month, and the demand was slightly better than market expectations, with good demand on the energy storage side. In terms of the terminal market, sales of new energy vehicles have maintained impressive performance. However, based on data from recent months, the year-on-year sales growth rate has slightly decreased compared to the previous month.
In August, the monthly total production of lithium carbonate in China reached a new high, breaking through the 85000 ton mark, with a month on month increase of 5% and a significant year-on-year increase of 39%. The current market is still in a stage of structural supply-demand mismatch.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the impact of mining shutdowns has not yet been fully transmitted to the supply and demand side. The key point of subsequent price fluctuations lies in whether the relevant mines can successfully complete the reserve verification report on September 30th and the subsequent changes in mineral types. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.