1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene rose continuously this week. On April 29, the price was 7360 yuan / ton; On Friday (May 6), the price was 7460 yuan / ton, up 1.36% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 29.12%.
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2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil rose continuously, gasoline was consumed to a certain extent during the festival, and the downstream air was filled after the festival. In addition, the main refineries raised prices continuously, and the toluene market actively followed up.
In terms of external market, the price of toluene in Asia rose this week. On Friday (May 6), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1059 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $25 / ton, or 2.42%.
Crude oil rose broadly this week. The European Union plans to gradually stop Russian oil imports, the market has intensified concerns about tight crude oil supply, and international oil prices have risen continuously. As of May 6, Brent rose $3.05 / barrel, or 2.79%; WTI rose $5.08/barrel, or 4.85%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this week. The price was 17775 yuan / ton on April 29 and 17550 yuan / ton on May 6, down 1.27% from last week and up 14.46% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (May 6), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 39.06% compared with the same period last year. On May 6, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 1180 / T FOB Korea and USD 1198 / T CFR China.
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In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose slightly this week. The price was 8819.8 yuan / ton on April 229 and 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6, up 0.99% from last week and 18.03% from the same period last year. The rise in crude oil prices, coupled with the increase in on-site demand, led to a rise in the gasoline market.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, rising inflation or restraining the rise of oil prices, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The trend of crude oil is strong and the cost side is well supported. The favorable gasoline market lacks sustainability, the downstream chemical industry mainly maintains rigid demand, and the logistics and transportation have not been fully recovered, and the demand for toluene is still weak. Overall, toluene support still exists, waiting for demand to recover. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices on the price of toluene.
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