Commodity index: on September 30, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 20.45% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business community, under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the sharp increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products rose sharply in September. The manufacturer’s quotation was cautious, the pricing and delivery were subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation was not accepted, but the order arrangement was subject to payment. As a result, there are many shocking enterprise notices in the circle of friends, as shown in the figure:

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On September 1, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 1761.11 yuan / ton, which rose to about 1878.89 yuan / ton on September 30, with a monthly increase of 6.69%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid increased this month, and the quotation increased from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 299.80 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.47 yuan / ton, or 2.21%. The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market situation of downstream ammonium chloride and white carbon black rises and falls, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly recently.

LNG is used in the production process. In September, the domestic LNG market fluctuated violently, falling first and then rising and then falling. The price trend showed an inverted n-shape, which was much higher than the level in the same period in recent three years, and it fell sharply near the end of the month. On the 30th, the average price of domestic LNG was 5650 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from 6110 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 7.53% in the month and up 114.83% compared with the same period last year. The power rationing policy affects the demand of downstream users. In addition, during the holidays, dangerous chemical vehicles are prohibited from driving into the expressway, the logistics is limited, and there is pressure on the delivery of liquid plants. Actively reduce the price to seek profit. In the short term, the domestic LNG market is weak, and the price may continue to decrease.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the market of water treatment industry rose under the comprehensive influence of multiple factors in September. The rise of raw materials increased the purchasing pressure of downstream enterprises and weakened the purchasing driving force of polyaluminium chloride. After that, the rise and fall of the market still depends on the change of raw material price.