Commodity index: on October 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 90.97, which was the same as yesterday, 16.55% lower than 109.01 (2019-08-28), and 7.89% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, from September to October, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend, with a total increase of 7.09% in the two months of the “golden nine silver decade”; the lowest mainstream price of polyaluminum chloride, one of the main monitoring specifications, with a content of more than 28%, was 1571.43 yuan / ton on September 1, and the highest price was about 1682.86 yuan / ton at the end of October, with an increase of more than 7%. Since 2020, polyaluminum chloride has been in the market since 2020 The best two months. Among them, the price of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder increased, and the price of fuel and natural gas used in the production process rose sharply, which led to the cost increase of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers in the past two months, and the manufacturer’s ex factory price increased accordingly, totaling about 200 yuan / ton in two months. Among them, the increase in October was significantly greater than that in September, with a difference of about 100 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of North China is mainly stable, and some of them are rising: the price of poly aluminum chloride in Dezhou Maihua was reported at 160 yuan / ton in early September, and 210 yuan / ton at the end of the month after several price adjustments in October, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton; the quotations of Jinan Yuanfei, Taiyuan kunshengda, Shanxi Wenshui and Dezhou Shihua are relatively stable. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, according to the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers, the price of hydrochloric acid was about 180 yuan / ton in September, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to rise in October. Not only was the price of hydrochloric acid high, but also they had to queue up to get the goods. According to the market rules, the downstream was also in September and October Month is the heating season for environmental protection water treatment reserve raw materials. Under the stimulation of cost and demand, the ex factory prices of most polyaluminum chloride rose, about 200 yuan / ton in February. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. Since October, the price of calcium powder is still stable at the price at the end of September, with little change.

Since September, the price of natural gas, a fuel used in the production of polyaluminum chloride, has soared. According to the monitoring of the business agency, with the opening of heating in winter, some areas have begun to replenish urban fuel, and the demand is gradually increasing. At present, the downstream purchasing is active, the production and sales of liquid plants are not under pressure, the market atmosphere is good, and the price is pushed up strongly. In addition, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas is generally rising. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise in the short term Potential. At the beginning of September, the mainstream price of liquefied natural gas was 2406.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of October, it was about 3766.67 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 56% in two months. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a big increase, the pressure will increase instantly, and the ex factory price of polyaluminum will inevitably rise.

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride increased significantly. With the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection and the coming of winter heating season, the demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects has increased significantly. Many manufacturers said that September and October are the traditional sales peak season, especially October, which is the best month in 2020, and downstream demand is expected to continue to improve.

Industry: since September, the water treatment industry has been in the annual sales peak season as a whole, and the market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side and the demand for water treatment products caused by the upcoming heating season and environmental protection pressure. The market generally has a good view of the water treatment industry in the heating season.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, the traditional season of “golden nine silver ten” has obvious characteristics, and the market in October is better than that in September. Based on the demand of heating season, the price of polyaluminum chloride is rising due to the continuous rise of raw material cost. Due to the coming of heating next month, the comprehensive influence of environmental protection and cost rise, the demand for water treatment will continue to have a certain support Due to the strict requirements of environmental protection, it is still unknown whether there will be shutdown and rectification due to environmental protection. In addition to policy factors, from the perspective of market rules, polyaluminum chloride trend still has upward momentum.