1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 1733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.96%, down 7.28% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 81.40 on February 28.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1710 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1790 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the current domestic market is mainly fluctuating and rising. Agricultural production began to prepare fertilizer, and the downstream industry was slowly recovering. In terms of supply: the production load of some enterprises has increased, and the overall supply has increased, while the logistics and transportation tend to be normal, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and manufacturers hold a strong price mentality. It is expected that the short-term urea market will rise slightly, followed by the downstream resumption of work.

Industry chain: the upstream products as a whole seem to have increased slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 3190.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3053.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.28%, down 30.07% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia this week has risen slightly, from 2620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2816.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 7.51%, down 2.76% compared with the same period of last year, overall It seems that urea cost support is strong this week. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 5933.33 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. However, the number of downstream rubber sheet plants has increased, which has a positive impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up. Urea analysts of business association believe that the current epidemic situation has eased, some downstream industries are also gradually starting, agricultural demand is rising again, and the transportation situation has also been eased, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is reduced. At present, the domestic market has many favorable supports, and the short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.