I. price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell all the way in October, and the plasticizer market gradually stabilized at the end of the month. As of October 31, the price of DOP in East China was 7466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 450 yuan / ton, or 5.86%, compared with 7916.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and a decrease of 24.30% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market analysis
Product analysis
Commodity name port 10.25 price 10.18 price 10.11 price 10.4 price type unit
DOP China 930.00 940.00 950.00 965.00 CFR USD / ton
DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00 1180.00 1200.00 CFR USD / ton
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As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell sharply in October, and DOP’s market was negative. In October, the external quotation of DOP in China fell by 35.00 USD / T; in Southeast Asia, the external quotation of DOP fell by 60 USD / T, the external quotation of plasticizer DOP fell, and the domestic plasticizer market was negative.
Analysis of industrial chain
In terms of raw materials, in October, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, but the decline gradually slowed down. After the sharp drop in octanol price, it maintained stability. Overall DOP cost fell, but the decline trend slowed down. The DOP price fell in shock, but the later DOP market was negative, but the downward pressure weakened, and the later DOP market was weak.
In terms of downstream demand, PVC market fell slightly in October, while the downstream demand of DOP fell, while the market of DOP was negative and the rising power was insufficient. Downstream PVC market fluctuated and fell, and DOP demand was general. Overall, it was not good enough for future DOP market, and the momentum of future DOP rising was insufficient.
III. future forecast
According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol of DOP fell sharply in October, the cost of DOP fell sharply, and the market of DOP was negative. However, as the decline of phthalic anhydride slowed down and the price of isooctanol remained stable, the pressure of plasticizer decline weakened, and the market of plasticizer tended to be stable. In the downstream, the price of PVC fell slightly in October, while the demand for DOP was not good enough, while the market of DOP was not strong enough. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP market has been eased to some extent, but it is difficult to support the recovery of DOP market due to insufficient upward momentum, and it is expected that the weak trend of DOP market in the future will maintain stability.
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