Price Trend

This week’s lead market (06.10-06.14) shocks. The average domestic market price is 16,181.25 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 16,187.50 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%.

On June 14, the lead commodity index was 98.52, up 0.27 points from yesterday, down 26.48% from the peak of 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 32.01% from the low of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week spot lead market shocks, the mainstream trading range is 16050-16250 yuan/ton. The downstream consumer downturn is difficult to pull the market transaction, the transaction is light, battery terminal purchase is limited, cautious wait-and-see. Some refineries will continue to be repaired this week. In the trade market, the mainstream quotation of Shanghai brand lead maintained at 16150-16350 yuan/ton. The main traded brands are in Jinsha, South, Murong, etc. Yuguang, Wanyang, etc., mainly in long single trades.

Non-ferrous industry: On Friday, non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, superimposed inflation was mild, Fed interest rate cut expectations were warming, US dollar was low at 96.451, and domestic top-level announced infrastructure financing incentives. Although external uncertainty increased, confidence in expanding domestic demand remained unchanged, market sentiment was boosted, and basic metals generally recovered from a low position.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the most sensitive market is the decision of the Federal Reserve Conference on Interest Rate. The market awaits the guidance of the US dollar. When domestic metals enter the June long order delivery period after the month change, the activity of spot futures may be significantly improved. However, some metal items with the risk of warehousing extrusion may temporarily subside and return to rationality. It is anticipated that the stable trend of spot lead prices will dominate next week.